UPS Vacancy bid?
 

I spoke with Training Scheduling regarding remaining training dates from this last displacement. They indicated that they think there will be at least one class a month for the rest of the year on the 757/767Z. The last displacement class is in March, so these classes have to be coming from something else if this turns out to be accurate (I know, their lips were moving). The way I understand it is if they post a vacancy then this is the over 60 crowd's one way ticket out of ANC or off of the panel. Discuss.

MF

I thought those over 60 guys who took the MD or 74 out on ANC would be seat locked. Thereby meaning that those seats will be filled by those who are more junior. So those who were forced from ANC to the panel from the displacement bid may now get a window seat in the lower 48 :-). Or am I wrong? As long as they need bodies, I'm still warm and willing to be a galley/plumbing slave :-)

I believe the over 60 ANC F/Os (no seat lock if upgrading to Capt) would be able to bid Capt upgrades elsewhere in the system but not the over 60 ANC captains (2 year seat lock). That's why many of them opted foir the right seat instead of the left during recent ANC vacancies, but I'm wondering just how many folks we're talking about in this case? Roberto?

The seat lock is for two years and applies to transitions, but not to upgrades. Something else to consider is that the company can bypass age 63+ FOs. Pay them as Capt but keep them as FOs in ANC or wherever they are. Your guess is as good as anyone's on how the company will handle this.

So, how many over 60 F/O's are in ANC elidgible for upgrade? How many over 60 F/E's on the DC-8 or Whale that could also grab a window seat? If the F/O's in ANC are allowed to upgrade to Capt in the lower 48 then there would be a need for F/O's in ANC, the way I see it.

There have been 46 FO awards to over-60 FE's, but 3 of those retired after their award (24 747-400, 15 MD11 SDF, of which one retired, 1 757 SDF, 1 SDFZ who retired, 3 ONT, 1 MIA who retired, and 1 A300). A couple of these haven't started training yet, and a couple more are on medical.

There are 42 upgradeable FE's remaining. Five of those turn 65 in 2009, so they probably will be bypassed. Another couple turn 65 early in 2010, and may be bypassed also. A couple more turn 65 in mid-2010, and they could be bypassed also. There are also 9 medicals, and some who don't have an upgrade bid in. I'm guessing maybe 25 would actually take an upgrade if (their choice) was available.

I think the senior FO's in ANC and SDF, and some senior FE's, will take available CPT vacancies. The junior over-60 FE's will be looking for a lower-48 FO, as they have already passed up ANC FO opportunities.

As said previously, there is a 2-year lock on transitions from the 747-400, and a 1-year lock on other domicile transitions.

Also, Manpower Planning has been talking about a Realignment Bid in February or March for quite some time. That timeframe has been given because the schoolhouse for the MD11 and 757 is full until March. My bet/hope is for an early February (Monday, February 2) bid, as that will allow the necessary lead time to pick up training in the 757 and MD11 fleets in March at first opportunity. (The last scheduled MD11 class begins in early February, and a 30 March 757 class is only about half full, by my records from the last training bid award.) Hopefully, someone will get an update from Manpower Planning before too much longer.

Great info as always Roberto, thanks.

All I know is I'd like to see some forward movement (who wouldn't right?) or stay in place at least. If I move down anymore I'm gonna start freaking out more than I am already.

I would just be happy not to go backwards. Forward movement would be too much to ask for.

No sh!t...

And who can we thank for that? :rolleyes:

Amen!
 

Amen to that brothers and sisters. I'm already looking out the bird's butt, one push and I'm gone!

So now that peak is history how long do you think it will take the company to announce something?

MF

I would say after FedEx announces their furlough, UPS will follow within a few weeks or months.

I think the latest talk is a Jan/Feb bid announcement. My bet is still Monday, February 2nd, for the bid to come out.

Looking at the CPT manning in PP3, it seems to me the A300 is very short, with average line credit over 79 hours. Only about 12% reserve coverage, before VTO additions. Only 3 A300 pilots in training. SDFZ appears to be fairly tight, with average line credit of 81.5, many lines above 85 up to 89+, and 20% reserve coverage. These are just CPT numbers, didn't do the FO math.

Most of the school houses are wide open, considering the 6-week lead time from Realignment bid to training class start date. By my count from the last LTT award, the 757 has classes totaling 41 in Jan, Feb, and March. They have 7 openings in their March 30 class, I think. The MD11 has 29 starting in Jan and Feb.

I think it is just a matter of figuring out how deep to cut the DC8 that is holding things up.

Heard 50 on each seat.

Hope they don't cut the 8's too soon. I heard all of the extra late hots last night got launched. They still need the 8's!

I "heard" ONT will displace around 20 CA, and a Vacancy for ANC 747. Numbers unknown.

SDF Haven't heard anything. Most likely a displacement off the DC8, all seats.

Feb. Time line.

I "heard" 25 CAs and 25 FOs might be displaced out of ONT... but I heard that several weeks ago so things could/will change...

25 would take the Junior CA numbers down to Early 1995 hire in ONT. I assume most would then bump CA's in SDF. If they could, the top 15 of the displacements.

Then if they displace off the 8, it's going to get ugly. Junior CA will be a 1994 hire soon, except ANC.

15 years, wow.

3 weeks ago an ONT ACP said no numbers had been decided for any base. Staffing was being evaluated but he didn't think there would be many if any at all out of ONT.

FWIW

Have they published peak's numbers for 2008 yet?
I realize that more businesses are switching from air to ground, but even then a package is a package, and revenue for Brown.
Just wondering.

As a side note, the DHL deal, large or small, is still being "tweaked". I would be surprised for them to publish a bid till that gets settled. To issue a bid, and then a month or two later, to have to completely rework of lift requirements seems like a foolhardy waste of resources. Better to wait and get it right, than to rush and regret.

Still swimming ;-)

FWIW this is probably the most realistic "scenario" yet. Remember, we are always three months out on furlough "notice". No notice yet means no decision yet most likely.

It's my humble (or not so depending on if you know me or not) that how many jets we will park, how we will do manning, how long the recession will last, long and short term impacts here have all NOT been decided.

I would bet there has been some long painful meetings discussing this on upper managements side but there are short and long term ramifications to all moves. For example do nothing and the recession goes on for several years then the company loses more money on it's flight ops side. Park too many jets with comensurate furloughs / body reshuffle and the recession doesn't last long enough lose money and lots of good will.

Everything pretty much falls in the middle of those two.

Good luck, we are all counting on you.

Too close to the bottom,

Biff

In my opinion, ACP's are worthless when it comes to major decisions. They are the last to know anything. This decision will be made by ATL and a small group in SDF.

I've talked to 3 junior captains in ONT who all said that IF they get bumped they'll bid back to the right seat in ONT...

Getting off a plane early Jan 5th, a loader on the ramp, asked me "what's this big announcement about being made in two weeks"...who knows...first I've heard????

As a former loader, they are last people who have any clue of what is going on.

We're buying TNT and FedEX - heard it here first...

I heard USPS will be bailing out FDX and UPS... In other words purple and brown will be going postal! :D

I predict a merger between UPS and FDX by 2020. There will also be unmanned cargo planes by 2025. And yes I am serious.

I say we ask for a UAV scope clause in our next contract... In the future, if a furlough ever happens I think toy-plane "pilots" should go before real pilots do... :)

...and yes, I'm serious too... ;)


...oh, and I say we staple purple to the bottom!... :D



APC - abolish the 3-smiley/post limit! ; )

Flew with an ACP a few days ago, and (take it with a grain of salt) he said
they had a meeting a few weeks ago w/the company and they were very positive and adamant about no furlough. Having said that, the first Q of 09
will be the test for future plans. There is a lot of opportunity for growth in India, and Asia is still growing for us, just not as fast as it was. IN HIS OPINION from what he has seen/been told, there is a good chance of all DC-8s being parked after the first Q 09 with the MD-11s and 767s picking up the volume (said even if we park all 8s no furlough but we will see). UPS is aparently bugging Boeing to get the 767s to us ASAP. Time will tell......

L'il J, Your Avatar is the best! If we had more drivers that looked and dressed like her FDX would be bankrupt!

I agree, I also wish we could post the other pics of her - she's a little more revealing on those pics... :D

The video is better.:eek::D

There's a video?! Dang it, I never got it... I'm sure it's great, heck just watching the pics makes me wanna... ship some packages :D

The UPS chick
 

Don't get too excited..... She's management.

Seriously, how about a link?

Rott

UAV's and trains
 

Trains only move in one out of three dimesnions. They don't go up and down. They don't go left and right. They only go back and forth on a set of rails that doesn't allow them to do anything else.

And trains still have conductors. I don't think pilots have anything to worry about until a hundred years after someone invents a train system that does not need people driving.

Rott

Trains...:) "In one out of three"...:D "up and down"...:cool: "back and forth"...

Great post after the video request...

That's the problem with ONT. All the So Cal people are more concerned with QOL than being in the left seat. I don't blame them but it sucks as you see your number dwindle off into reserve and base trip line land. Yes, I know, I know, it could be worse but it still sucks.