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WSJ UPS article

Old 02-02-2009, 12:40 AM
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I'm curious what kind of benchmarks will be used to describe the report as better or worst than expected?

Shopping malls here in Singapore are still pretty full so who knows, maybe this recession won't bring the end of the world after all?




Volumes Key to UPS Report

By ALEX ROTH

Virtually every company in the freight-transportation and parcel-delivery industries, from railroads to truckers to ocean shippers, has seen volumes plummet amid the recession. On Tuesday, United Parcel Service Inc. is likely to report that its fourth-quarter volumes were no exception.
The question is how much these volume drops will hurt the Atlanta company's profit and its forecast for 2009. "I don't think you're going to see anything pretty come out of UPS," said Satish Jindel of SJ Consulting Group, a consultant to the parcel-delivery industry. He noted that the economy turned particularly grim in December in a variety of categories, including less-than-truckload freight and international air cargo.

Two months ago, UPS's chief competitor, FedEx Corp., coping with the slumping volumes, slashed pay for 35,000 employees, including its chairman and chief executive, Frederick W. Smith, who took a 20% cut in base pay. Mr. Smith at the time cited "some of the worst economic conditions in the company's 35-year operating history."
Since then, economic conditions haven't improved -- and may have gotten even worse. In December, year-over-year volumes for some trucking and railroad companies declined by double-digit percentages.

But UPS could get a boost from declining fuel prices. When fuel prices drop quickly, many transportation companies receive a windfall because of a time lag between the prices they pay for fuel and the surcharges they pass along to customers. Given the drop, UPS's earnings report on Tuesday "probably won't be that unsettling," said Avondale Partners analyst Donald Broughton.

Both UPS and FedEx stand to benefit from DHL's exit from the U.S. domestic delivery market. DHL's parent company, Deutsche Post AG, announced those plans in November, citing losses in the U.S. of more than $2 billion in the past two years. Even with DHL's exit, however, UPS still faces significant headwinds. During the Christmas season, business was so bad for both UPS and FedEx that both companies canceled their annual predictions of how many packages they would handle in the peak shipping days before Christmas.
Write to Alex Roth at [email protected]

Last edited by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE; 02-02-2009 at 12:48 AM.
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Old 02-02-2009, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by ⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
I'm curious what kind of benchmarks will be used to describe the report as better or worst than expected?
I've always marveled at the answer to your question. The benchmark that will undoubtedly be used is "Wall Streets' Expectations." So in effect, if Wall Street's brokerage houses feel that a company has met their expectations of profits (or loses), then a favorable report will be forthcoming. If not, then an unfavorable report, based on "XXX company's earnings didn't meet Wall Streets expectations." The beauty, from "the streets" report is that buyers and sellers will heed that report and the brokerage houses will make their profits on both as some people dump a stock, while others buy it. You just gotta love it.

JJ
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Old 02-02-2009, 04:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Jetjok
I've always marveled at the answer to your question. The benchmark that will undoubtedly be used is "Wall Streets' Expectations." So in effect, if Wall Street's brokerage houses feel that a company has met their expectations of profits (or loses), then a favorable report will be forthcoming. If not, then an unfavorable report, based on "XXX company's earnings didn't meet Wall Streets expectations." The beauty, from "the streets" report is that buyers and sellers will heed that report and the brokerage houses will make their profits on both as some people dump a stock, while others buy it. You just gotta love it.

JJ

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Old 02-02-2009, 05:22 AM
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JJ,

God bless America! I love this country.....
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Old 02-02-2009, 10:24 AM
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Originally Posted by VegasBoy
I have no idea what this thread is about; I just keep staring at your Avatar.
How patriotic of you.
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Old 02-02-2009, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by VegasBoy
I have no idea what this thread is about; I just keep staring at your Avatar.
Now that's an improvement compared to a photo of a license plate...
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Old 02-02-2009, 01:17 PM
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That's what I've thought all along. Most of you guys are on this site only for the pictures. Must be a very large percentage of fighter pilots.

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