UPS - System Bid Question
 

I'm a litte confused about some of the speculation about the upcoming dispacement bid at UPS. It seems that everyone is assuming the junior 74Y and M11 ANC FOs will be displaced to the panel. I don't see how this is possible or likely. The company actually awarded about 7 more ANC 74Y FO awards than they had original and recurring vacancies, which included the most junior pilot in the company. From a company standpoint it makes sense: all the junior FEs will most likely be heading to ANC when the DC-8 goes away, so why not let them bid up there and save the moving costs. Sure the 74Y FO list will be pretty fat, but as the 767s come online, that list will take a lot of vacancies in the lower 48 and their replacements will already be trained. Plus why would they award more positions than they had to if they were sending everyone back to the panel?

Roberto explained in a previous thread that it would be impossible to displace the bottom FE's to ANC since the FE seat had the most junior pilot on the list, and you need someone junior to you in order to displace. Now that ANC 74Y is the most junior seat in the company, how is it possible to displace out of that seat? The only way the company did that on the last bid was that these people were on probation and could be placed wherever UPS wanted them.

The only way I could see it possible would be by following the guidance under Insufficient Bids on p. 320 of the contract. That allows the company to fill vacancies by inverse seniority if there aren't enough bidders for a seat. However, if they needed to fill a vacancy on the DC8 FE, why allow more FEs bid off than were required.....and wouldn't these vacancies need to be filled on a vacancy bid, not a displacement bid?

If my thinking is correct, the only additional people coming to the panel would be the junior FOs in the lower 48 who choose the FE over ANC. This would still leave plenty of DC-8 FEs (staffing would be similar to the other seats) and save the company a ton of moving expenses. I'm by no means an expert, and have probably overlooked something. If I'm missing something here, please chime in....

He can't displace someone but he can be displaced by someone else senior to him who wants a window seat instead of the panel.

B2P

B2,

I agree that he'd be "displaced" by someone senior to him, but where does he go? Looking at the contract, there is no language that says you can displace into a seat when you have no one junior to you. The only option I see is to stay on the 74Y FO or furlough. Since the company has stated no furloughs, it would seem he'd stay on the 74Y.

Very interesting!

I am passing on the number crunching and analysis to you, and here are some numbers to start you off.

The bottom 50 pilots (2857-2906):
747 – 24
ANC MD – 9
DC8 – 17

The bottom 108 pilots (2799-2906):
747 – 54
ANC MD – 32
DC8 – 22

The next 100 (2699-2798):
747 – 39
ANC MD – 45
DC8 – 0
A300 – 12
SDFZ – 3
ONT – 1

Only 22 of the bottom 208 pilots are FE's... actually, after 2799, you have to go all the way to 2241 for the next most junior FE.

It seems to me if any of the FE's remaining wanted a window seat, they could have had one, as the junior pilot got a 747 FO award...

Wow...you're right. So if there's no place for the junior guy to go it seems like he can't be displaced...?

My head hurts again...and this time I absolutely refuse to dive back into the contract to find my own answer. (I was wrong when I looked stuff up last time anyway.) ;)

I'll wait until Roberto or some other smart guy actually chimes in and does the number/contract thing for me...This stuff is too damn complicated.

B2P

It's given me a headache also. Lester, how about talking to Manpower Planning about this and letting us know what they say. I'm pretty sure they read this forum anyway, so they should be ready for you. The easiest way to call them is to call on ATLAS and then dial 350 and their extension (in the schedule bid books).

All of this is giving everyone a headache I think, good news on LL bean, buddy down the road in MEM says we stole that from them...

I thought the only way to go back to FE was to be displaced to FE. In the displacement bid can an FO bidding FE actually be awarded it?

Roberto, this is your quote from before.

"I think the number of additional FO's that end up as FE's after the displacement will about equal the number of senior FE's who receive bid awards. I think this number will be about 30 or so.

From the Realignment Vacancy Bid, a lot of junior FE's will receive FO awards. That could be deceiving. After the Displacement Bid, because of their juniority, they will be displaced right back to the FE seat, along with those additional FO's replacing the senior FE's who left.

Some CPT/FO's in SDF may choose downgrade over ANC, which will decrease the ANC numbers displaced."

If this is the way it works, the only openings are DC8 FE's when you get to the most junior FO's, then we have about 72 heading that way via displacement. UPS chose to draw down the CPT and FO positions but not the panel, therefore there are still 143 positions. I know of several that would rather bid it because they are sick of the commute, I hope they are awarded.

YES! If you are displaced and wish to bid FE then you can versus going to ANC. That comes straight from MP, but only if you are displaced, so if you have the FE bid ahead of ANC, it should be awarded.

From pages 325 of the contract (not complete)

3. If he is the most junior First Officer, then he will bid either A. or
B. If the crewmember bids option A, but is unable to hold any
position outlined by option A, the steps in option B shall be
used for this crewmember.

a. System-wide to displace a more junior Captain or First
Officer
(1) Displaces most junior Captain or First Officer systemwide
on current equipment
(2) Displaces most junior Captain or First Officer systemwide
on most recent equipment
(3) Displaces most junior Captain or First Officer systemwide

b. Within present domicile
(1) Displaces most junior Captain or Second Officer/PFE
on his current equipment in present domicile
(2) Displaces most junior Captain or Second Officer/PFE
in present domicile
*(2a)Displaces most junior First Officer system-wide*
*(3) Displaces most junior crewmember system-wide*

(4) Furloughed

I've watched too long not to chime in...here it is straight from someone having had (in two weeks) 5 seat assignments in just over 2 yrs along with numbers straight from Manpower Planning a couple hours ago:

1. Displacements roll downhill. Yesterday, as someone put it was the Christmas Bid...in 13 days 60+ people on the bottom of ANC will be displaced by those above them...to the panel. Just because the bottom guy in the union got a vacancy (again for Christmas) doesn't mean his 'slot' on the panel is gone. 53 Capts and 20 FOs will decide whether they move domicile to keep $ or take a change in seat and the most junior Capts (in ANC) decide where they want to be senior FOs - ANC OR lower 48. IN ANY CASE ALL THESE GUYS KNOCK YOU (lester & co), ME, AND THE BOTTOM 400 FO DOWN THE TOTEM POLE.

2. 2606 will be lowest SDF FO; 2620 = lowest ONT FO; MIA is MIA (?) and 60ish numbers from yesterdays ANC list get bumped to/put back on the 8 panel. Numbers subject to change as people flip flop or wives/spouses encourage them to reconsider time away fr home/cash.

3. Once you accept our fate, think positively and address my other post on when we stop moving back...how do we get out of ANC.

Comments made on your post.

If you are going to be displaced, and have no problem plumbing, that is a way out. It looks and sounds as if you would be awarded that if getting out of ANC at any cost is your desire. (Roberto????)

If getting out of ANC with a front seat is the ultimate goal? That may take a while, IMO. That will probably take the ultimate economic reversal and hiring, again IMO.

And you are right, on the positive side, we are all still here, and could just as easily be on the other side of the fence looking in. I try to tell myself in 5 years will all of this REALLY matter? A bit, but in the big picture... probably not.

Again, I'm just trying to interpret the Kentuckianderthal Cave Paintings, but it seems to me that as the Great Flush works its way through the stack the system junior guy, who is now a -400FO will be immediately bumped by the first senior guy to bump into ANC when he/she can no longer hold the lower 48. Now the sysem junior #2906 is an FE again, and the bump and funnel continues on it's current track, with the few exceptions for personal quality of life that will skew the numbers a few one way or the other... Capt->FO SDF (300, MD, Z, 757) -> MIA or ONT -> ANC (744, MD) -> -8FE as we all run out of musical chairs.

This is how the last bid shook out, and I see no reason to think this time won't be the same, despite the fact that everyone is now off probation. The only aberration last time was that guys/gals on probation were sent to the panel OUT OF SENIORITY in favor of not retraining junior probationary FO's in ANC. With the continued Fall of Man, the list will now be sedimentary for the most part with -8FE at the bottom, exclusive a few anomalies for commuter quality of life. The question of most junior system wide will be the vacancies left in the FE seat from the realignment that will be back-filled by displacees, most junior included. Only the front 2 seats in the -8 will not be backfilled per the displacement.

From the contract:
2. If he is the most junior First Officer, then he will bid either A. or
B. If the crewmember bids option A, but is unable to hold any position outlined by option A, the steps in option B shall be
used for this crewmember.
a. System-wide to displace a more junior Captain or First Officer
(1) Displaces most junior Captain or First Officer system-wide on current equipment (2) Displaces most junior Captain or First Officer system-wide
b. Within present domicile
(1) Displaces most junior Captain or Second Officer/PFE in his current equipment in present domicile
(2) Displaces most junior Captain or Second Officer/PFE in present domicile
*(2a)Displaces most junior First Officer system-wide*
*(3) Displaces most junior crewmember system-wide*
(4) Furloughed

May the Force be with us all...
Just my 2-cents, and a pure guestimation of the damage...
Captch11

:confused:

Never mind. I'm just confusing myself.

The logic of everything rolling downhill and everyone junior in ANC going to the panel makes sense, but I just don't see how it can happen when reading the displacement language in the contract. Not to mention the company didn't have to award #2906 a 74Y FO award, so why would they do that if the plan was just to send him back to the panel?

I'm not claiming my "theory" is correct, just looking for other opinions. My head hurts from thinking too, I guess we'll all find out a week from Monday.

Looks like I will be bumped out of Anc, but at least it gets me moved back to civilization. Even with the pay cut, things are so much cheaper in sdf it will be a wash. So bring on FE. I'll never work and I'll get to see the sun and my family. Just in time for summer. Last year there were a total of 4 days of sun in Anchorage. So good luck commuting guys......Bump away.

So what?
1. The commute is easy
2. It never gets dark
3. It's always tank top and flip-flop wx
4. The stores never sell out of anything
5. UPS Medical coverage -- everyone is in network, in fact, there's
too many doctors to count
6. Everything is cheaper up here:
a. Car insurance
b. Homeowner's insurance is never denied/dropped due to volcanoes
c. Groceries are virtually free
d. Gasoline is even cheaper
e. Electricity, Gas, Water are next-to-nothing
f. Property tax -- what's that?

Look at it this way, when the bottom guy got bumped from ANC to DC 8 FE, there wasn't anyone junior to him then either. Why would this time be any different.

Lester,

I think you are trying to hard to read something into this bid that's not there. The system is set up so that the most senior guys get to bid for what they want (this time they were F/E's aged 60+ and some very JR F/E's).

Next will come the bumps from the DC8 front seaters wedging themselves in where they can hold. The results of that wedging in will be the most JR ANC F/O's will get to plumb the mighty Ocho. The exact number will be plus or minus a few of how many over 60 F/E's took front seats.

As far as reading something into this the company is using the contract and their ability to influence the outcome of the bid process to get the most JR guys onto the panel.

If the company were to furlough right now they would hamstring themselves in ANC. They aren't stupid and won't do that so the next thing to do to prepare for the F word possibility is to coral the JR folks onto the panel and play the wait and see game. A couple of posts prior to this Roberto published where the JR guys were sitting. Study that, it's good intel as to why the company is doing what they are doing.

Once again the above post is my opine and reflects nothing onto UPS, the IPA or any Bush living, dead or burning...

Biff

Not sure what Roberto's numbers are all about...they give summary of the Christmas Bid - not the reality of 13 days from now.

Again, from the Manpower office (with bids as of today)...
~2606 most jr fo in sdf
~2620 most jr fo in ont
~bottom 100 on the panel

If you've been hired anytime recently, these are all that matter. Beyond the bottom 100, ANC becomes the hamstring.

Sooner the eight dies ... sooner the Wallyworld Greeter job goes away. That's as effective, if not more, than anyone throwing F bombs around.

Did MP tell you that? I had figured it differently as to go more than the bottom 70ish people would result in ANC getting smaller. I sit 85 and WANT to be an FE so I am watching closely. I don't think I will get my wish as too many people senior to me will take the panel over the commute. Amazes me you can't down bid at this company.

Please tell me your 831 choice in the system bid is higher than any xx5 bids. You won't get it unless you bid it. If you're 85 from the bottom, you're not in the 2836+ corral.

Manpower again confirmed today that if your number was 2836+ that you're on the panel. This is based on today's data that 12 guys who can bid FO are choosing to bid FE. Of course, bids will change, and 2836 will move up or down a few spots.

As far as bidding down, they would love to send you to FE if you did not take the move package to ANC previously. There is a large number of folks in the 2836 +/- range that DID take the package--UPS does not want to pay 50g's to move each of them again if they can avoid it.

Like he said...my conversation w/ MP was aimed at specifics for the 2606 and 2620 numbers. I was speaking in general terms about the 'bottom 100' on the panel, to which MP nodded in agreement. I guess it'll come close for you (with last minute changes and people weighing $ v quality of life).

FWIW People have been trapped ever since the shrinkage/displacements began w/ the parking of the 727 two and a half years ago - you haven't been alone.

deleted....

According to the latest bid pack I am 2822. That puts me in the bottom 100. What your second paragraph says sums up what I had kinda figured out. That leaves me in ANC.

What difference does it make if 831 is my first choice? It isn't. I would rather be an FO in SDF. 831 is on my bid though. I was always taught to bid what I want, not what I think I will get. From what I have seen at UPS, more UPSers bid what they think they will get than at any airline I have seen.

Down bidding, the rules were made long before this moving package problem came to light. I would have saved them some moving expenses in the first place if they hadn't displaced me to ANC. I offered. Union told me no. Had it explained to me but it simply made no sense to me. Oh well, I am fine with whatever. I like my paycheck every 14 days and will not complain :).

Doesn't have to be your first choice. Just has to be higher than any ANC choice (725/125).

I was oversearved last night and was a tad slow. Yes, no doubt there.

I understand what you are saying, however, that is why we have a contract. We have to force UPS to follow it, even if the situation doesn't work for us personally. (No need to say that UPS already doesn't follow the contract - that much is obvious.) I understand your pain, albeit not the commute to ANC. That has really got to $uck! :eek: