I concur with the 1 to 2 year outlook. That said, I have personal knowledge of freight being left behind at domestic ramps. The economy is recovering, hopefully at a steady, sustainable rate. Retirements will be the leading indicator. If we have a large contigent of over 60 guys who like their portfolio balances better now than they did a year ago, they may choose to go fishing. We may also see a steady stream of folks leaving as we reach early November. Only time will tell. The exit from 4a2b and vacancy bids will be the lagging indicators, but necessary confirmations that hiring is drawing near. JMHO:)

Previously, I've predicted 2011 or 2012 because I just didn't see many of the pilots over 60 retiring.

Now there are rumors that up to 280 may retire before Dec....we'll see.

If that's true, I think that it's a bit of a "game changer" and moves things up at least a year; however, even if true, I still wouldn't bet on any hiring in 2010.

I think the concept that "150 727 SOs" need to move to a window seat via a vacancy bid before any poolites/new hires are brought in is a "good one".

...and remember, there are still 80 FOs coming to the back of the Boeing via the last excess bid

....PLUS, a new group of "OVER 65" Capts and FOs coming to the back of the Boeing for their "third tour" starting next spring --- ugh!!

Bottom line thought...it's gonna be a while gentlemen.

...the first "green shoot" may be "professionals" deciding to exercise their option to "come to the line" after their 3 years in the school house are complete.

Over the past year or so that hasn't happened ---- the risk was too great.

Once you see a trend of those guys opting for the line, it most likely signals they are getting "in house" information that the "risk" of a furlough has been sufficiently mitigated and it's time to get that longevity/seniority ticking.

I thought those guys were told that they couldn't come to the line, b/c of 4a2b?

Hiring in 2010 -- count on it!

Due to 4a2b the Professionals were told they could NOT come to the line.

Several tried to exercise their option, but due to 4a2b....lower BLGs in order to prevent a furlough, the company could NOT hire/permit the transfer.

That's what I thought and I too think we'll see some hiring by the end of next year.

Point is...

There will be many, many leading indicators providing ample time to hint at when FedEx will hire. These indicators (retirements, improving economy, increasing load numbers, increased crew utilization, higher BLGs, blah, blah) have been hinted at but nothing has been seen. Until some of this occurs, hiring will be on freeze. Again, it's gonna be awhile, but when it does happen...we'll need 400 pilots yesterday! Keep up your profiles and your contacts...always.

80 crews needed for the MD to get flag ops off the ground. Differences in rest rules require the additional manning. Potential for a vacancy bid by the end of the year to fill the requirement.

I haven't really kept up with the goings on at Purple. When the hiring resumes will HKG be the new hire base? And if so then how long until able to bid back to the states do you think?