Any intel/rumors on a post peak vacancy bid?

...especially in the 757....??

Looking at the current training letters:

- 757 Capt training runs out in Apr
- 757 FO training runs out in May...and the fleet is still growing!

- MD11 training is a trickle in Jan, Feb & Mar

- A300 is mostly lateral training after Feb

- Looks like 777 is the only "fat letter" and doesn't run out until May 2011

Given the recent pickup in international and domestic volumes, and what appears/is rumored to be at least a small increase in retirements, will the company really have the right balance of pilots come springtime??

My hunch is there could easily be a 757 bid for 35-60 slots in Jan or Feb --- especially in the FO seat --- which would fill out the training letter until Oct or Nov 2010.

Could such a bid even allow some ANC MD-11 Nugget FOs, currently headed to the back of the Boeing, stay in ANC a little longer waiting for a 757 training slot in the summer or fall?

Such a scenario may actually be advantageous to the company with regards to current undermanning in ANC FOs and future overmanning in the 727 SO seat.

Any 757 Flex's/LCAs care to chime in?

Discuss.

 

Everything you've said makes perfect sense . . . . .

In other words it will never happen.

 

I recently asked a school-house instructor about the MD-11 training. This was his response:

Out of students in March
F/O Instructors will be Flexing the Line "much more"
Captain Instructors will still be "teaching" [read checkride qualified]

No hint of a vacancy bid, FWIW.

 

>>- Looks like 777 is the only "fat letter" and doesn't run out until May 2011<<

Well, if that's "fat" then the 72SO letter is morbidly obese.

 

Not that it means anything, but I have heard that there will be "absolutely no vacancy bids for at least a year. "

 

That sounds like the only believable rumor out there. I wish it were otherwise.

 

I could see a 75 bid, but that's about it.

 

I agree --- and with the 757 fleet growing in 2010 does it make more sense to have that morbidity in the back of the Boeing or put some more meat on the 757 training letter?

I'd think the latter.

Hopefully common/financial sense prevails and they lead turn their need for more 757 pilots...I think they can avoid putting guys thru 2 training cycles within 1 year.

 

I agree with DLax that the vacancy bid makes sense. Especially since the MEM 757 is not being 4A2b'd in the same fashion as the rest of the fleet. Those folks are already flying A LOT and with a growing fleet and more airplanes to fly they are going to have to put more bodies there. I mean unless the company finds a way to put 40 days per month on a calendar.

I think the bid is coming... and sooner rather than later.

 

We have to figure out what would cause a vacancy.

How many retirements? How many 757s coming? Will freight fall off after peak or stay up?

If the 757 keeps taking Airbus cities then the lateral moves will continue. More than a few 727 CAs and widebody FOs have to upgrade to create secondaries for 727 FOs and SOs to fill.

I see a vacancy for ANC. They draft too much and the MEM bidpack is nearing normal line averages. They may eventually want to stop building ANC HSBYs for MEM based crews. But see question #3.