UPS seniority Distribution
 

Can anyone provide me a breakout of the age vs. seniority of UPS pilots?

Inre retirements?

all of these are approximates.

30=2640
35=2400
40=1900
45=1400
50=950
55=900
60=500
65=330
70=300
75=400

Seniority
 

Here is the progression of a crewmwmber hired one year ago at age 35 (Assuming that people retire at age 60)

Year Seniority
2006 2466
2007 2379
2008 2305
2009 2247
2010 2196
2011 2148
2012 2081
2013 2021
2014 1951
2015 1854
2016 1758
2017 1678
2018 1577
2019 1457
2020 1326
2021 1182
2022 1013
2023 857
2024 697
2025 557
2026 440
2027 330
2028 251
2029 177
2030 132
:D

What is the likely progression of a 41 year old new hire in terms of overall seniority? What about expected time to Capt? I'm contemplating making the jump from AA.

seniority
 

DayvsNight...

Who cares about your overall seniority...you would be on the list and making more your second year here in the right seat than you will ever make at AA. You can look at the retirements and the growth only, but the guys that got here 9/6/2001 (last pre 9/11 class) were happy campers to have a job, even if they were on the panel for a few years longer than normal.

We have several guys who have already quit AA to come over here. You can ask them (I'm sure you can get their names) how they like it over here.

JMO

Pilot7576

cpt time
 

DayvsNight...

Figure capt in about ten years...mileage may vary...we have some 8 yr cpts for the new ANC domicile...

Pilot7576

Every dog has his day
 

That's a pretty arrogant statement from a pilot who's total time on the top of the heap can be measured in weeks. :rolleyes: Things charge fast in aviation, for better and worst. AA and the rest of the legacy carriers have an institutional memory of the pay, benefits and QOL they used to have. If these airlines produce profits over the next few years, look for a hard charge for (some) restoration of the good times. Than maybe UPS (night) hub turns won't look so inviting.;)

APC,

Did UPS hire much since 9/11. I know they have a few classes going on now. Any others of descent numbers in the past few years.

Thanks, Fish

No hiring from 9/11/01 until 11/04

Numbers by year-
2004=32
2005=236
2007=92 with future classes bringing that total to approx. 148 total.

dog days
 

dckozak...

Yes....bad times can happen quickly (and have) to legacies. If you think that a couple of quarters of profitability will have them back to pre 9/11 pay levels, I have some beachfront property in AZ to sell you. The easily won concessions by the legacy carriers will take a long time to get back.

We've been at the top of the heap now for a bit more than a few weeks. More like a few years. As far as quality of life, the schedules here (even on reserve) suit a commuter more than than the 4/3 of typical domestic pax flying.

I'm not crowing about the pay and bennies here, they could (and should) be better. Just the facts that more than a few legacy guys have quit and come over here, not for the pay, but for the job security. That hasn't changed since 88.

JTF

Pilot7576

cargo vs pax
 

Bad times can happen to good companies with great track records. All things change and expedited cargo carriers are not immune. I think there has been an out pouring of doom and gloom about the pax end of this business that a couple of years of good fortune will put to rest. Is it around the corner? Maybe not, but this is a cyclical business and things have (and will) swing around.
As for as the chest thumping from (some) UPS and FDX posters, you'd think the business model (for these companies) were immune to setback. Over night (air) freight is just one energy crisis away from being a truck product; you at UPS should understand that better than anyone. ;) :confused:
Don't kid your self that we move an indispensable product. The box doesn't care how its moved, that can't be said for people. Let's all keep our fingers crossed that nothing stupid happens to kill the golden goose!;)

trucking
 

dckozak...

When people will be satisfied with having their intl packages moved by ship is when I will start to be overly concerned. If you haven't noticed, the industry has survived the last "energy crisis." I agree that domestic air delivery is susceptible to truck, that is the most cost efficient method. But they don't have a truck that can deliver intl goods.

You,of all people, on the maddog should realize this!

Pilot7576

Just watch tonight's headlines to see what could make your doubts come true.:confused: :mad:

omg...there goes the market in north korea...no more ipods and jeans for them...we just lost how many flights into that great country...I'll be worried a bit more when they discover electricity there...why don't you look at satellite photos of the korean peninsula taken at nite?

did you serve at all, and have you ever been to that part of the world on the tip of the spear?

Pilot7576

I think that we crossed that bridge quite a few years ago. UPS knows that it is cheaper to move things by truck and there was a paradigm shift with the teamsters contract of 1998 that allowed tag team truck drivers to move things great distances. Everything that can move by truch has done so for quite some time now.

Not sure what point your making. Have seen the dark line from 35,000 while flying east over Seoul. Its not the dark side lighting up that we should be worried about, its the other side. :eek:

I hope your right.

Day/Night, a quick look at a list shows me approx 50 retires a year until 2015, This excludes F/E's as most of them are already over 60. Next year being the most retires with 80 and i think 2011 the least with 25 retires. I dont know how rapidly these over 60 guys/gals will be leaving with our new contract but when they do leave the hiring will be for F/E positions.

We have a large group of pilots in their mid/late 40's. The current plan seems to be the major growth being a new ANC domicile growing to about 600 or so crewmembers in 5 years. The expected time to captain is thought to go very junior in ANC possibly 5 to 7 years.

Any help?

Yeah, lots of help to me too! Thanks guys! A few more questions...

With the various new hire numbers being thrown around of up to 300 pilots from 06 to 07, is seems that most of this hiring is for growth, right?

Could we expect the seniority list to go over 3000 in 2007?

Is most of this hiring actual growth, effects of the new contract work rules, or a combination of both?

I see on UPS's APC page that 10 MD-11's are added in 07 along with the first 4 of the 747-400's. Any more aircraft being added in 07?

Mostly yes, but also Age 60 retirements unless the rule changes to 65. In '07 we're slated to lose about 90 pilots to the Age 60 rule.

No, not with some over Age 60 people leaving. I would put a guess at 2,950 by the end of 2007

Both. UPS, for instance, is very short on crews right now. The lines just came out for November, and (at least in Ontario) they are stuffed to the max. According to our union, the new contract rules will have UPS scrambling for crews for the foreseeable future.

Not likely. I expect UPS to announce more aircraft purchases, however.

FD,

About how long will a new guys be on reserve at UPS. Lets say for the 747SDF, MD11ANC, MD11SDF. Again thanks for all the info.

I just flew with a guy that had been here for two years and was just now holding a pure line. That is the 767 international domicile