Amazon Drones, should we worry..
 

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos had a big surprise for correspondent Charlie Rose this week. After their 60 Minutes interview, Bezos walked Rose into a mystery room at the Amazon offices and revealed a secret R&D project: “Octocopter” drones that will fly packages directly to your doorstep in 30 minutes.

It’s an audacious plan that Bezos says requires more safety testing and FAA approvals, but he estimates that delivery-by-drone, called Amazon “Prime Air,” will be available to customers in as soon as 4-5 years.

When Charlie Rose walked in and saw the Prime Air drones sitting on a tabletop for the show-and-tell, he exclaimed “Oh, my God!” It was a genuine reaction-- Rose and the 60 Minutes team weren’t in on the secret beforehand. The story had been in the works for months before the Amazon representatives started hinting that a new project might be revealed to 60 Minutes.

“I only knew that there was a surprise coming. I had no idea what it was,” says 60 Minutes producer Draggan Mihailovich. “They kept saying over and over again, ‘Whatever you think it is, it isn't.’” Mihailovich grew skeptical when the Amazon PR team began to hype their surprise behind the scenes. “How great can this be?” he thought.

60 Minutes associate producer Nathalie Sommer says even Bezos built up the surprise during breaks in filming the 60 Minutes segment. During a tape change, Bezos told the producers, “If you can guess what it is, then...I will give you half my fortune and send you to Vegas with it.”

When Rose, Mihailovich, and Sommer finally saw the drones, they were perplexed.

“I had no idea what its purpose was at first glance,” Rose told 60 Minutes Overtime. Mihailovich thought they resembled giant, flying tarantulas: “They actually look like something out of a Philip K. Dick novel.”

Then Bezos played a Prime Air demo video for the 60 Minutes team that showed how his octocopters will pick up packages in small yellow buckets at Amazon’s fulfillment centers and whiz through the air to deliver items to individual customers 30 minutes after they hit the “buy” button online at Amazon.com.

Cool thing to watch, but will only have a 10 mile range from a fulfillment center

SkyNet...they're here.

..........No

Does this mean the rumor about Amazon buying FedEx is untrue? :confused: :eek:

In our society, automation to increase the bottom line has always been a priority. That's in every field from music (synthesizers) to ATM machines, machines have slowly been replacing people…and that's a fact. HAL2000 is the way of the present/future.

One drone can deliver 1 package every 30 minutes. In a 12 hour day that is 24 packages. How many packages can a truck deliver in that same time frame. Throw in a thunderstorm, snow, or freezing rain for some real excitement. I think my career is safe for the next 10 years or so.

Not to mention the first lawsuit when the "Amazonoctocopter" lands on little Fifi or Spot...

Or the "Amazonoctocopter" fails mid flight over an interstate and drops the package over an interstate. The package falls at a rate of 9.8 m/s^2 or 32.2 ft/s^2 and comes crashing down on a car traveling at 65 mph. The impact to the windshield kills the driver which then causes a sixteen car pileup….good luck getting these approved. Not to mention delivering the package to the house located on short final which causes multiple go-arounds.

Or better yet, little Tommy or baby Jane!

In other news, shotgun sales have exploded across the country and skeet ranges are reporting record attendance as sportsmen across the country prepare for "Amazon" hunting season. Said one local hunter "it brings a whole new meaning to 'golden goose'".

Regardless of all the down-sides to these drones, it's a fantastic, novel idea and I applaud Amazon for spending the time, energy, and of course, money, on attempting to make these things a reality. According to the interview, currently the maximum weight for a package is 5 pounds, but I suspect that as electric fuel cells become smaller and more efficient, both the range as well as the payload of these things will improve. However, it will be a lot of years before I'll be able get a new set of pistons and cylinders, delivered by drone, from Amazon. In the meantime, I guess I'll just continue to use FedEx Express for my important, time sensitive purchases, documents, and girlie magazines.:rolleyes::D

Except when they enter agreements with local businesses and install charging stations on their rooftops...

I bet there's all kinds of stuff that housewives will order to get "now", haha....

Even Jeff Bezos conceded that they were a long way from implementation. The problem with octocopters won't be grown men with shotguns, it will be dogs, kids with rocks, jokers with rakes and pellet guns, and lawyers. Before they've completed their first year in operation, there'll be (a broken) one hanging in every college bar, dorm room, and frat house. And a thousand videos on Youtube depicting novel and creative ways of bringing one down.

Of course, if they're deployed in conjunction with a second, armed version to provide close air support, that could all change.

I'll be baaack...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/12/01/amazon-bezos-drone-delivery/3799021/

Or worse, little Ferrari or baby Lamborghini!

Maybe Amazon will be hiring thousands, maybe millions of UAV pilots to fly their goodies all around America. Anyone have their HR Dept info?

Maybe someday, but not anytime soon. I do have to give him credit for thinking outside of the box. :D

A fun but ultimately silly and impractical notion.

There'd have to be advanced AI in there to avoid obstacles and stuff that pops up daily like moving cars, dogs, people.

I agree it'd become open season on these things, both for the novelty, AND the fact that you have iPads, jewelry, iPhones, maybe even drugs, flying overhead.

Speaking of drugs - drug dealers would dig on this technology. Load the device with weed, send it on its way... ;)

This reminds me of the flying car in every driveway that has been predicted over and over again (even recently) for the past 50 years.
I'm sure the amazon drones will have just as much success.

Seems also that with someone as sharp as Bezos that this would not be unveiled at all until ready for implementation.
I think its just a "hey look at us" PR moment that will ultimately go nowhere.
--oh, yeah...nice timing on the piece on the eve of Black Monday...what better way to get the Amazon name splashed everywhere than having Buck Rodgers as your spokesperson?

Terminal velocity is what this is called, it is determined by the combination of acceleration from gravity versus the drag created by the flying object, and there is a lot of drag around square shapes such as a cardboard box. If this is a concern, and I suppose faulty boxes or grippers could allow it to happen, the weight limit on the box or even the shape of the box itself could be adjusted to limit terminal velocity to something no worse than a bird falling out of the sky or what have you. The latter may still be unacceptable, especially if the machines want to operate over high density population. There could also be a tether added to the box.

Actually, safety acceptance is not usually based so much on how bad things go if the machine crashes, witness the results of various airplane crashes we have in the world every so often. Rather it is based on probability of the event happening at all. So if Amazon can show these machines have (make up a number) one in thirty million chance of failing, they will be able to establish reasonable safety. These octocopters have a high redundency factor built in anyway, and I bet it is easy to show the chances of catastrophic failure are quite low as it stands.

I think they are a great idea and should be expedited (pardon the pun) by the FAA. They will save a lot of gas, car travel and road congestion, make returns easier, on and on. There is not much of a downside the way see it. Altitudes and routes can be managed to insure safety around airports and other aircraft operating zones.

Nothing but hype...
 

Build fulfilment center.
Man fulfilment center.
Move parcel to fulfilment center.
Program drone. File flight plan.
Load drone. Monitor drone.
Return drone.
Recharge/refuel drone.
Maintain drone.

Free advertising -Priceless

While much of this can be automated...ain't worth it...but good hype and free press...

Why not worth it? In theory this machine is cheaper or they wouldn't be pushing it. So shipping rates could be less, roads will be somewhat less populated by delivery trucks, less road wear and (much) less fuel demand, quadracopter fleet can be almost completely automated, no flight plans or hands-on work required, efficiency can increase if changing shifts of van drivers and van fleets are taken out of the equation,and delivery is possible 24/7 and during snow emergencies and so on. I suppose the downside is the fuss in getting it regulated and the cost to the labor force in terms of lost jobs. In general however, technology taken as a whole is a GDP (gross domestic product) increaser so it boosts the overall yield for a given amount of capital investment and we all win when that happens. Countries that adopt advanced technology tend to lead the world in terms of GDP.

Full service Octocopter:)

FedEx predicts records ALL TIME high shipments tonight. More than 11 million packages (that's 126/sec).

That's a LOT of plastic octocopters :confused:

I had 215,000 pounds of freight from CDG to MEM the the other night! Wow, most I've ever seen, I thought the 184,000 pounds from CAN to CGN was a lot!! This should be a good season for us at FedEx!! Bright future IMO even with the talk of theses drones! The drone thing won't be viable until it's able to carry many more lbs and many more objects at once and then hit multiple targets in one sortie. Then we're talking about a machine that's about the size of a ATV I would bet, and that will have to be fool proof and completely redundant.

I know ALPA is working with the FAA on US drone policy. They need to make sure that they are only flown by certified pilots. More importantly, they should work toward a new level of Class 1 medical for those over age 65 or over 40 BMI with "Drone Only" as an exception. This could definitely be a win-win.

If thier new prime air resembles thier newly created ground delivery called lasership I wouldn't be to worried about it.:rolleyes:

He is doing this for publicity no way this is a viable means of transporting goods in the near future. How is it going to fly to a house and put a package on the porch etc or is the plan just to release it from the UAV like a bomb? Going to take one fast UAV to deliver to another city in the same state much less another state all together. Also, think about the number of UAVs required vrs a truck to carry the same amount of packages.

The video on 60 mins was pretty cool. All electric drone lands in front of your house, releases the container, then takes off. 10 mile range. No drone pilot needed. The container can hold and carry about 86% of what amazon delivers.

• Publicity stunt- sure, but still something they have a genuine interest in.
• Putting stuff on a porch- probably not possible, and the system requires a small/cheap helipad to land on. But the same helipad could be used for everything else the house orders too.
• Radius of service- only ten miles, but can be expanded with more distribution centers.
• Number of units- well, how many packages does the average house order at one time? It's true that several or many copters are required to duplicate the payload of a panel van, but probably not that many. The copters can also be scaled to do all that a van can do although I think the idea now is one per house. This is not a bad counter-argument though. Amazon obviously thinks this is a partial solution to their shipping needs at best.

You have to admire what Bezos has done with Amazon. That being said, now you have to wonder what he is thinking. First he spends 250 million on The Washington Post, a paper that is by most accounts DOA. Then in the same year he announces the Octocopter. I for one would love to be sitting in on the Amazon Board of Directors meeting as they try to decide how to spin this one.

Each house that wants something from amazon has to have a helipad; that will be neither small nor cheap. Imagine an apartment complex with your 300 neighbors all vying for the Ipad just delivered.

The radius of service cant be expanded with more distribution centers but the service area could be. At the cost of more inventory required.

It is not how many packages does the average house get a day, it is how many packages does the average neighborhood get a day.

I think the technology will be profitable but not in delivering package store to door.

Meet George Jetson, his boy Elroy, daughter Judy and Jane his wife

Flying cars come closer to reality .:. newkerala.com Online News - 96956

A couple of questions:

1. Will they ever be able to upscale the concept to deliver things like HDTV’s? What guarantee could they offer to prevent mishandling of those things? (such as the well publicized incident with a major delivery company)

2. Who will supervise and “fly” these things?

Solutions:

1. The guarantee should be “We’ll treat your package as well as we treat our employees” (I can feel the love already)

2. Don’t hire former train engineers. Leave the flying to pros.

The octocopters in question will not have human pilots to my knowledge. They will use gps much like the Google automated cars do now, and follow an approved route structure which could be city streets at low altitude. Any evasive or emergency maneuver will be carried out by onboard stability computers that already exist and are perfected. Some things that are yet to be determined are

• route structure
• weather handling
• systems failure
• (human) crimes against drones
• system overload handling
• acceptable failure rates
• oversight, regulation, and system monitoring

ABC news did a piece on the evening news tonight. Some of the problems include: not currently allowed by the FAA,
because ABC news is a business they could only demonstrate the drone indoors,
winds could easily cause the current drone to land in neighbors yard delivering package to the wrong address,
limited obstacle detection,
no obstacle avoidance.

They didn't even mention liability concerns. More free press however.