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Old 04-17-2020, 03:39 AM
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Originally Posted by captsurf View Post
Not that we should believe every word out of Kirbys mouth, but he said that a pilot furlough to match a 30% reduction in demand would take 3-5 years to logistically and financially recover from, by the time people are trained for displacements, then retrained and back on line. Yes, people compare this to 9/11 and 2008 saying it’s worse than both combined. But that’s mostly due to the fact that people are locked indoors and can’t go to work. But they actually want to go to work. In most cases their jobs will be waiting for them the minute they’re told it’s safe to do so. People want to fly. We’ve seen the biggest bounces and surges the markets ever seen. Trial treatments are doing well. A vaccine is likely a year away... Do we REALLY see ourselves taking 4 years (split the difference) to get back to normal? I think the biggest indicator of how fast we spring back will be how many of these small business cut their loses and don't even open their doors back up. I’ll bet there will be quite a few, but most are eager to get back in business and making money again.
testing will be key to making people feel “safe” to fly until a vaccine or better treatment is discovered.
I read somewhere that Emirates is already doing this. People will not fly until they feel is safe to.
if we can somehow mass test everyone before we go through security/known it would be a great start, but it will take time to come up with all the test kits and procedures. Hopefully in the next few months as this would also help the airlines bounce back instead of crawl?
thoughts?
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Bestglide View Post
testing will be key to making people feel “safe” to fly until a vaccine or better treatment is discovered.
I read somewhere that Emirates is already doing this. People will not fly until they feel is safe to.
if we can somehow mass test everyone before we go through security/known it would be a great start, but it will take time to come up with all the test kits and procedures. Hopefully in the next few months as this would also help the airlines bounce back instead of crawl?
thoughts?
Offer teaser $99 round trip tickets and unbelievable rates at hotels and everything you said goes out the window.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:14 AM
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Originally Posted by drywhitetoast View Post
Offer teaser $99 round trip tickets and unbelievable rates at hotels and everything you said goes out the window.
My thoughts exactly. Price discovery will take place and it will be downward. So long as the big stakeholders (airlines, resorts, parks et al) cover costs itll happen. Gotta remember that a holiday or a business trip is the total cost...not multiple seprate costs. Point being is hospitality may be able to discount far more than airlines....I digress.

Regardless of concern Prices will come down (and fear will be priced in), planes will fill, airlines will take a hit......
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:16 AM
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Originally Posted by drywhitetoast View Post
Offer teaser $99 round trip tickets and unbelievable rates at hotels and everything you said goes out the window.
Have you seen some of the fares floating around now? It's not driving higher load factors. No one will get in a tube with two hundred people for hours on end until they know they are safe. That will take a vaccine or at the very least, a readily available therapeutic.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Poss View Post
Have you seen some of the fares floating around now? It's not driving higher load factors. No one will get in a tube with two hundred people for hours on end until they know they are safe. That will take a vaccine or at the very least, a readily available therapeutic.
You conveniently left out people are ordered to stay home. Otherwise more people would be flying now.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Poss View Post
Have you seen some of the fares floating around now? It's not driving higher load factors. No one will get in a tube with two hundred people for hours on end until they know they are safe. That will take a vaccine or at the very least, a readily available therapeutic.
People have short memories.. as soon as the scare numbers aren't newsworthy combined with cheap fares, people will travel using credit cards.. maybe not to pre CV numbers for a while
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:38 AM
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Originally Posted by drywhitetoast View Post
You conveniently left out people are ordered to stay home. Otherwise more people would be flying now.
Load factors plummeted before these orders went into effect. Corporations have stopped travel not because of government orders but to keep their employees safe.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:40 AM
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Originally Posted by bigboeings View Post
People have short memories.. as soon as the scare numbers aren't newsworthy combined with cheap fares, people will travel using credit cards.. maybe not to pre CV numbers for a while
Yep. Same argument post 9/11 was used. People are never going to fly again and teleconferencing was the future. There was never going to be another face to face business meeting. It was to be an airline killer.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:40 AM
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Originally Posted by bigboeings View Post
People have short memories.. as soon as the scare numbers aren't newsworthy combined with cheap fares, people will travel using credit cards.. maybe not to pre CV numbers for a while
The public attention span of a gnat. There probably will be some enticements to get people back on planes after a medical solution.
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Old 04-17-2020, 04:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Poss View Post
Load factors plummeted before these orders went into effect.
And load factors will rise after these order are removed. There is way more info available about the virus now that was not known at that time. People are realizing that they were hoodwinked. It's turning out to be more like the average flu season the a population ending event.
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