Positivity
 

Call me an optimist, but in the last few days at the major airports I’m in and out of often I’ve seen a noticeable uptick in PAX not only on my flights but in the airport in general. This was easy to see considering the near nothing loads I’ve been accustomed too for the last month. Anyone else see the same?

You are an optimist and so am I. I’ve also noticed the same. In a month or two things are going to be a lot better. I feel that less people are in panic mode compared to 3 weeks ago. Grocery stores aren’t as empty except for TP of course.

I’ve spoken with a variety of people from pilots, flight attendants, ramp personnel and retail workers at the airport that seem to agree. One interesting thing I heard was that on flights that have enough people, a complaint that has happened now is that if passengers cannot have enough space between each other they say something. I wonder what type of solution can be built to solve this problem that keeps passengers happy as well as keeps a flight profitable. Aside from an increase in fare to cover separation in the aircraft what could be done to appease the traveler? An aircraft has obvious social distancing problems, but it cannot be sustainable to only sell X amount of seats to keep a certain level of safety, be it perceivable or otherwise and remain profitable. At any rate that is above my pay grade and I’ll keep flying so long as they allow me too, but what an unusual dilemma to be presented with. For the sake of returning to some level of normalcy and job security I hope that we can safely move forward from here.

Once the press is compelled to report the actual death rate (less than 1%), people will forget about social distancing in favor of low fares.

Several studies have been published in the last few days that more than suggest several millions have been infected by CV.

21% of the people in NYC is 1.7 million in one major metropolitan area alone.

At this point the reasonable thing is to isolate the most vulnerable group (the elderly with preexisting significant diseases) and let the rest get it to the point that herd immunity develops and decreases spread to the point the most vulnerable will be safe because everyone else will be immune.

And yeah, I know, the immunity may be short lived, but if that’s the case developing an immunization is going to be even more problematic. We might as well start easing up right now, before we further damage our school systems, colleges and universities, small businesses, etc.

Oh yeah, and airline pilots...

Agreed, and my opinion is that realistically when you consider current unemployment figures it’s a farce. Retail and restaurant has to account for a significant percentage of the overall total, it’s not as if suddenly millions of good paying white collar jobs evaporated due to this. Theoretically, presuming the businesses affected have the capital to sustain themselves until restrictions are lifted, should come back rather quickly. That coupled with the fact that spending has been forcefully suppressed due to the fact that people cannot spend money on certain things they usually would as well as government stimulus should suggest that if these businesses and activities resume could mean an economic boom. While some people are fearful, others are ready to get out, just give them the chance. I think, and hope, that this may be the case.

I'm not sure what others are planning, but I'm planning on eating out a lot and traveling extensively as soon as this lock down is over...

I am not sure if I am going to do those things a lot but I did neither before. I will just go back to living my life like before being more aware of ways to stay healthy and not get infected with any sickness. Many people are paranoid if the world opened tomorrow it will be months before things get back to normal. That is okay with me as long as we have the option to do things.

Here's the numbers compared to last year for reference. They update it daily.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

I don't think we've got enough data to necessarily make a trendline up, just seems like the Friday travel is higher than weekday which is expected.

I did hear somewhere (can't recall where for the life of me) that Air New Zealand is seeing a noticeable uptick in bookings however, so there's hope!

Actually, we do. Seven day moving average is on an upward trend. Fourteen day moving average has flattened. Six of the last seven days have seen an increase vs. same day week prior. It's a bottom, maybe not "the" bottom, but the current trend is in fact upwards.