Partial Vaccine May Be Available Now
 

It's starting to look more likely that the Rubella component of the MMR vaccine has a very high correlation to low severity in COVID cases. The other components may help as well. This hypothesis, made by two individuals, has been discussed here before but now has preliminary verification by heavy-hitter research organizations.

Hasn't hit big mainstream media yet, but these sources appear reputable:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...anization.html

https://kdwn.com/2020/04/24/mmr-vacc...-for-covid-19/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....10.20053207v1

And in 2014 researchers concluded that the measles vaccine protected against SARS (aka COVID-01).

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...42682214000051


Verification of this, and ramping up production can be accomplished more quickly than certifying a new vaccine... and much of the population is already vaccinated anyway.

If this pans out, it will become the definitive case study of "Better to be Lucky than Good".

Somewhat related article. “Herd immunity” could be achieved at much lower percentages than previously thought. Maybe the MMR vaccine could have something to do with that.

http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short....27.20081893v1

Interesting theories.. would give some credence as to the New York numbers being so disproportionately high in terms of serious disease rates and poor outcomes. New Yorks vaccine program has had difficulty vaccinating certain groups

Anecdotally, my airline had some cases of measles floating around between crew, so i got a titer and was woefully low on antibodies. Got the booster.... measles is nasty.. German measles.. nasty.. mumps.. eww..

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24606680/

just talked to a colleague about this. There is a European company already working on this.. they might beat everyone to the punch.. fingers crossed..

Would explain the very sharp contrast between NYC and HK.... only 7 deaths in HK??? And it's not because they're falling all over temselves to comply with every directive of the CCP.

need more meta data analysis, but something to look at.

With the remdisovir shortage and any other antiviral that will prove to effective. It's going to have to be some sort of vaccination to get the real start to global recovery.

Unfortunately as mobility increases, cases go up, local hotspot... etc...

Did you see the MLB study??.. I'll see if i can find the actual data link when I get a break.

Ummm no. Incorrect.

The Rt rates are actually < 1 in all but 4 states: KS, ME, NE, MN. I remember 1.5 months ago when you guys where screaming about it, because of what you'd heard from CNN. Speaking of CNN et al. funny how they fail to mention this fact. Hmmmmm. wonder why.

Here's the source:
https://rt.live/

It's regularly updated.

We need to be opened up yesterday. Not contingent upon a vaccine. Enough, this is a flu bug. Nothing more.

I'm sorry, I don't know what your trying to conclude from the data. Yes Instagram made a nice way displaying R naught data, although not sure how they are calculating and what Rt actually is. Yes everything looks great and in the green I see. Great. But what is the interpretation of the data?

I also don't watch CNN, MSNBC, FOX, etc. Infact I haven't watched TV since probably February. As I'm way too busy.

Please don't assume I'm an alarmist or a political person. I work for a global company going through the actual data concerning this particular virion everyday. I wish this was as simple as 8 simple segments of ribonucleic acid made up 14k nucleotides, forming an influenza A virus, but it is far from that. I try to stick to facts as I learn them from my work and my colleagues. I've visited plenty of clinical sites recently and spent plenty of time in a laboratory recently to not jump on every single news story and to try and give factual data.

There will be further transmission and infection hot spots with mobility. There is no way around that without some sort of immunity, acquired or vaccinated. There will be hospitalizations and further deaths. The degree to of which is unknown and really can't be predicted accurately. May be more, but may be less. This is a communal disease.

I can't comment on economic impact of societal decisions or the moral and political implications on any of that. I can't tell you how likely the average business will resume business travel, sales force travel, leisure travel etc.

This has pretty much killed my "retirement" airline career plans. The last thing I want is for this to continue or to worsen. Not only for myself. But my fellow pilots. But, there is also a reality here that has to be accepted.

Or we could go back to discussing what the thread is about....

MOD INPUT: Yes, lets please stick to the topic.

I think the real question is if anyone is going to really study it or is it more profitable for the Pharma companies to make a new vaccine? The real research has been done by a Statistician and a Veterinarian backed up with a little research from Cambridge. That's probably scaring off everyone!

It's easy to validate or refute the statistics.

The people who make the MMR vaccine would probably get behind further analysis.

Also this does not look like it would replace a COVID vax, just that it could reduce severity and deaths.

Agreed. I would like to think this is good research but even if it’s bad, damn it’s presented well. About now if you told the American people that if you get a booster, you will get sick but not die, they would be lining up to get a semblance of normal back.

RNA bugs are not "treatable" from vaccine standpoint. See HIV, SARs etc. However, mitigation like you've mentioned is always promising and certainly helps. Thanks for posting up the research. It was a good read.

The vaccine situation with Covid is going to be another political crisis, because it's probably only going to be available in limited quantities, and extremely expensive.

Even if it costs thousands per dose, the fed will pony up. Cheaper than indefinite economic collapse.

$5K/dose * 330M people in the US = $1.65T

We're already into it for more than that.

why would it end up costing more than something like the flu vaccine?

I'm getting in the wheel barrow biz. Inflation in a few years is going to be a choker.

Moderna is probably going to be the first company to have the vaccine, to shorten the development time scale, they are creating a prototype manufacturing process in parallel with their vaccine trials. If they are successful, there is only one company that has this production technology. It will take years to ramp up production for the rest of the world. So for the first couple years, the vaccine will be for Americans only.

Moderna has formally started phase 2 studies of their vaccine. This is a modified phase 2 study.

Usually phase 2 studies measure safety, along with some efficacy and is split into two seperate studies. Instead special exemption was approved and phase 2 a and 2 b studies along with large scales phase 3 studies will be grouped together. This is unprecedented but needed ofcourse. Fingers crossed.

Pfizer has begun phase 1 in human trials this week as well of their innovative vaccine.

Fingers crossed.

Production is going to be key for whichever candidate makes it through development. Moderna does not have the facilities to top do this scale of production. It will be subbed and pharmed out. Moderna does have allot of skill with this particular vaccine as they were very close with the original SARS already. All they did was change a small part of the vaccine to attribute to the spike protien. Smart people up there in Mass.

Technology will be stolen from foreign agents unfortunately.

Long-established vaccines (the ones you got as a kid, flu) have long ago amortized all of their development costs.

New vaccines will need to include development, as well as production, costs in the price.

Flu vaccine is made out of eggs. Chicken eggs, dime a dozen wholesale.

But what I think Mesabah is alluding to is that if a vaccine requires very advanced techniques, it could end up expensive with no way around it. If instead of an egg, you need a machine capable of processing genetic material, it could be orders of magnitude more costly. But that's all hypothetical at this point, need to see what they come up with. I'm sure even if the first one out of the chute is expensive, they won't stop until they develop one that can be produced economically on the scale of the billions needed for the whole world. That may or may not take longer.

Maybe, hopefully. But any bio-med product can surprise you by failing some key part of the testing/certification process. It's good that *everybody* is working on a vaccine.

I'm sure others are too, in fact it's been discussed. It was a fairly obvious to anyone with industry insight what parts of the process should be compressed, and what parts of the process might have to be compressed at risk if the crisis was bad enough (it is IMO).

I bet they'll find ways to do it faster.

The Law of Unintended Consequences
 

Even supposing MM&R DOES work, we are screwing over a lot of kids who because of the lockdown simply aren’t getting their immunizations:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/08/...irus-pandemic/

There isn’t any no-risk scenario. It’s all a trade off of risks.

That can slide for a few months, there's enough people already vaccinated against the usual bugs to provide herd immunity (plus most kids aren't hanging out with the herd anyway right now).

Now if nobody gets the flu shot this fall, THAT could be a big problem, depending on what comes out of asia this year.

It isn’t just this, Rick, it’s a multitude of things. Pap smears, mammograms, screening colonoscopies, PPDs, Dental exams, we’ll baby exams, childhood immunizations, Optometry exams, blood pressure checks, the whole basics of public health have been put on hold for 330 million people. And for you and me you are right, it probably won’t make any difference, but for a small fraction of the population, and a small fraction of 330 Million people can be a whole lot of people, it WILL make a difference. Roughly 3 million new serious (not basal cell skin cancers) are discovered annually and we have about a million cancer deaths annually. A three or four month delay doesn’t translate into all of those people dying, but some will and others will advance enough to require more invasive surgery or a more intensive program of chemotherapy and/or radiation.

And for the very young kids shots, they actually DO need those for their own protection once maternal antibodies have worn off. And if you believe every working mom out there uses a licensed childcare provider that will actually require them to have proof of immunization, you are wrong. Nor does the pediatrics clinic have the surplus capability to surge and promptly catch up once this is over. They may we’ll be looking for staff themselves having furloughed their previous personnel.

You mention flu immunizations. Only about two out of three kids get them annually now. For adults it’s even worse, just over 50%.

https://www.drugtopics.com/vaccinati...going-flu-shot


Not everybody out there was in the military and not everybody puts the emphasis on it that you or I do. There are lots of parents out there just plain inadequate even if you make it easy on them. Immunization numbers even for things like Tdap we’re not 100% even before what has amounted to a three month moratorium on immunizations

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6841e2.htm

so no, I’m not claiming the deferred shots or other routine preventive medicine means that everybody is going to be dying en masse and their corpses littering up the streets, but it would be just as wrong to pretend there is no human cost to this. There is and will be and the longer it continues the higher that toll will be.

Yes I agree on the broad human cost, while a few months of delayed vaccines for kids will probably have no measurable affect, delayed preventative care for adults will pile up a health toll quickly... adults actually tend to develop health problems and house arrest can't be helping.

I think this contributes to a credibility problem for epidemiologists and for the public health field in general.

Before covid-19, there were almost countless measures, initiatives, and policies that were pitched as key to public health (Excargodog summarizes many of them nicely). Take some time to browse around CDC's website in areas other than covid-19. There's a whole page dedicated to "Adolescent Connectedness," as an example. A friend of mine is a high school teacher, and he's worried about a lot of kids when things are normal. He has no idea how any of them are functioning now, because he doesn't have any real contact with them.

Now we're told that none of this stuff matters, at least until some undetermined time in the future. The only thing that matters now is wearing your mask, which you absolutely were not supposed to do until a few weeks ago.

If they honestly believe that covid-19 trumps everything else, the messaging and explanation as to why could use some work.

Posted on another thread. Moderna shows positive progress where trials show ALL subjects developed antibodies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/18/moderna-reports-positive-data-on-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html

Yes very positive... they should update adverse events and such shortly. They are also drumming up resources and funding for manufacture. They are still figuring out dose titration.

All very positive but a lot of work, and literally a sh!t ton of work to bring this vaccine to market.

This link discusses some of the adverse events.


https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...m-Phase-1-Data


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Perfect thank you!

I've attached Dr Scott Gottlieb's comments and interpretation on the data he posted on Twitter.

Part 2 of Dr Gs post

Also good news yesterday in regards to the Centivax/Distributed Bio artificial antibody therapy: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200518005767/en/Centivax-Antibodies-Neutralize-Pandemic-Coronavirus-Independently-Confirmed .

That was yesterday.

Today:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/...article_inline

The new vaccine would be great provided:

• No heavy metals are used ad adjuvants or preservatives.
• No forced inoculations are implied or written into laws, regulations, company policies, state laws, or local laws and ordinances.

You guys know that "Business Wire" is a press release service, yes ?

https://services.businesswire.com/pu...e-distribution

Looks like Moderna stage 1 was just hyped up. Scientists aren't see the data yet. Moderna stock tanking.

most ALL of these "we may have a vaccine soon" "news articles" garbage are press releases designed for hungry media to gobble up

it is clearly working