Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127935)
My, I’m far more optimistic than you. And that’s because I DON’T think past history ir irrelevant.
Even the Spanish Flu, which was far worse than this, was largely over in two years WITHOUT a vaccine. And even though it killed 20-40% of the population of Constantinople - 10,000 or more a day - the Plague of Justinian only lasted a couple of years in the city. Ancient history is irrelevant, because they were more likely to blame witchcraft or angry gods, did not understand the cause and therefore could not formulate the right solutions... the plagues ran their natural course because populations (in ignorance) did little or nothing which would actually slow that course. Spanish Flu, folks mostly went about their business, with some hygiene and social D measures. Again the disease ran it's course. This thing, we are dragging out for who knows how long (without a vaccine). It might possibly run it's course in a couple years, but we could also be status quo in 2030. We don't know all the answers on how many people actually already had low or asymptomatic covid, but nationwide it's probably not a very large number.
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127935)
But anticipating a result because:
It sounds almost like magical thinking. Seriously, we’ve never done this before so we KNOW it is going to work? That’s just...wrong.
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127935)
is just wrong too. Outcomes are unlikely to be affected by how much we Do or don’t want them to occur.
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127935)
But past experience is informative. Even if we don’t make any vaccine breakthroughs, this pandemic will ultimately burn itself out. They always have. That may be little consolation to those airline pilots already creeping up on 65, but the vast majority of us are going to see a return to status quo ante.
It will be interesting though to see if anything changes after the election.
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127935)
“Those who fail to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.”― George Santana |
In this case the outcome is highly likely to be affected by how much we want it... it's a technical problem, money, gov support, and other resources certainly have a very good chance of influencing the outcome. As opposed to wishing on a star, or passively waiting for bureaucrats to get off their duffs and do something |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3127973)
I want a cure for cancer and cheap, safe, hydrogen fusion power...;)
Cancer is a more complex problem, practical fusion frankly might be achievable now. I've come to suspect that the gov is intentionally avoiding a big push due to (legit) concerns about the total collapse of most of the current energy industry and the associated economic carnage. Plus the Anti Nook's. You have to wonder, even if it costs more than current energy sources, it instantly solves global warming and most air pollution. |
Optimism from Pfizer for a year-end availability, although they are just starting phase-3 as we speak.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...ccine-new-year |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3128375)
Optimism from Pfizer for a year-end availability, although they are just starting phase-3 as we speak.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...ccine-new-year |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3128382)
So in advance of any data whatsoever, they are starting to declare victory? Seems like more of an attempt to boost stock prices than actual science.
|
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3128385)
Does seem a tad premature, but maybe their early trials looked really good.
Then there is the fact it was reported on foxBUSINESS rather than health news. And it has had the desired effect: https://i.ibb.co/ZdDN5tc/61050-F62-F...790-D1-B96.jpg |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3128375)
Optimism from Pfizer for a year-end availability, although they are just starting phase-3 as we speak.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...ccine-new-year |
Originally Posted by Excargodog
(Post 3128395)
Even if they did, they would be good looking phase 1 and phase 2 studies. Which are only, well, phase 1 and 2 studies. Nobody GETS TO phase 3 unless phase 1 and 2 look pretty good.
Then there is the fact it was reported on foxBUSINESS rather than health news. And it has had the desired effect: https://i.ibb.co/ZdDN5tc/61050-F62-F...790-D1-B96.jpg |
Originally Posted by rickair7777
(Post 3128375)
Optimism from Pfizer for a year-end availability, although they are just starting phase-3 as we speak.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthca...ccine-new-year Later they interviewed Dr. Scott Gottlieb – former head of the FDA. He said once data is presented to the FDA it would take a week or three for the FDA to review. He said if the data checks good that would likely lead to an emergency authorization to offer it to very high risk groups ONLY – like nursing homes and hospital workers. So for those groups the first possibility would be end of November or December (so yes technically Americans would get it by end of year). But most of the population would have to wait for the trials to be fully complete and that would likely be early to mid next year, according to Gottlieb. |
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