Vaccine Development Summary

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01-08-2021, 12:27 PM

#691

skywatch

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Joined APC: Feb 2007

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Posts: 1,053

Quote:

Originally Posted by jetlaggy

Once adjusted I assume they would have to start the vaccinations all over again?? Anyone seen any studies where they give a reasonable estimate on the effective duration of any versions of the vaccine?? They should be pretty close to knowing if it lasts longer than 6 months by now.

I for one am looking forward to the program where we vaccinate 330 million people with a new formula every 3 weeks. Makes about as much sense as everything else we are doing right now for a virus that has a an arguably similar IFR for most age groups as a bad flu.

01-08-2021, 12:30 PM

#692

rickair7777

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Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim

Posts: 39,275

Quote:

Originally Posted by jetlaggy

It should last at least as long as natural immunity, probably somewhat longer. My SWAG would be two years just based on what's been observed so far with natural immunity.

For full efficacy, you'd have to get the new vaccine (we do that every year with the flu anyway). Good chance that an older vaccine version would provide some protection (reduced severity) against new mutations, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure. Or it's possible the current vaccine will work against all mutations in the foreseeable future.

Also, there are going to be a lot of different vaccines, some will likely work better against hypothetical mutations than others.

As you can see, this is going to keep some science people employed for a long time to keep tabs on all this (but we may not need any new vaccines either).

01-15-2021, 05:54 AM

#693

rickair7777

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World-wide, people are more trusting of western covid vaccines. No big surprise...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29K16T

01-16-2021, 09:50 AM

#694

rickair7777

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Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim

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J&J vaccine data promising in early trials, still waiting on phase III results for real-world efficacy...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/what...l&uh_test=1_03

01-16-2021, 01:36 PM

#695

TransWorld

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Joined APC: Aug 2016

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

J&J vaccine data promising in early trials, still waiting on phase III results for real-world efficacy...

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/what...l&uh_test=1_03

Hope so, in the next few weeks.

01-17-2021, 12:39 PM

#696

Excargodog

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Joined APC: Jan 2018

Posts: 11,501

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

They tested it against the N501Y mutation (S. Africa and UK). They haven't gotten around to the E484K mutation yet.

But if necessary mRNA vaccines can be adjusted for new variants very quickly and easily, within weeks, and the article mentioned this. Also once the pandemic is under control there will be far fewer opportunities for mutation, so we should be able to keep up with it.

E484K appears to be an issue for some groups of people, possibly on a genetic basis. More work needed to sort it out.

Quote:

In most cases, the mix of antibodies in the patients’ blood was able to attack and neutralize the mutants. The main exception was E484K and related mutations, which reduced the potency of some patients’ antibodies by a factor of 10. But other patients’ sera had no trouble fighting the mutant form, Bloom said.

The results were posted recently but have not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal. Bloom and his team are now working to evaluate the mutations’ impact on vaccine-induced immunity.

The three Washington cases with the E484K mutation were discovered during routine genome sequencing as part of a surveillance system for new variants, Roychoudhury explained. The sequences were submitted to a repository called GISAID, where a researcher flagged the mutations.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...-hasnt-spread/

01-25-2021, 06:36 AM

#697

rickair7777

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Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim

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Merck terminates vaccine development program, due to poor results. They were using the established viral-vector technology but with a different vector virus than J&J (which is rumored to be looking good in trials).

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29U187

01-25-2021, 06:38 AM

#698

rickair7777

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Moderna to test a modified booster targeted at new S. African covid strain. This is a precautionary measure, they don't see any indication yet that the current vaccine won't work.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29U1HC

01-25-2021, 07:25 AM

#699

Excargodog

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Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777

Mmmmm, but they are doing it because of indications the current vaccine will work LESS WELL.

Which sort of indicates that while COVID wasn’t supposed to mutate as fast as influenza, it is clearly mutating fast enough to be troublesome. Still, the real issue is still going to be how effectively a previous vaccination or infection (and right now we’ve got a lot more of the latter than the former) is going to affect susceptibility to a subsequent infection and the extent to which the future infection in a non-naive individual causes disease or spread.

There is still an awful lot about COVID-19 that we just don’t know.