Airline Pilot Central Forums - Domestic Travel Covid Testing

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Forman (Post 3192758)

Just come into the country illegally and you don’t have to worry about the test. Science!

Do you know how I can tell you didn't read anything ITT?

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3192724)

I'm not entirely ruling out the possibility that they're doing this with the ulterior motive of killing airline aviation for political (control) or climate (carbon) purposes.

Woah, did I just hear a “conspiracy” from you?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fAN1bo1HAwo

They have been pushing this for months. Actually, the Commons Project was founded just before Covid started.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon (Post 3192749)

Pete is pretty good about following data, even when not politically expedient, I’d be surprised if this got past the “we’re researching it as an option” phase.

Don’t do politics, I’m guessing? Pete will do whatever the political winds dictate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RustyChain (Post 3192774)

Do you know how I can tell you didn't read anything ITT?

Nothing in my statement is false.

Quote:

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 3192842)

Don’t do politics, I’m guessing? Pete will do whatever the political winds dictate.

Gavin Newsom hasn’t actually seen the light, but he HAS felt the heat.

https://i.ibb.co/jb3ZF9s/42-F3-C177-...-FD3-CB0-D.jpg ht

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...635-0/fulltext

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/Novemb...t-the-Whole-St

AN EXCERPT:

Quote:

Rapid, point-of-care antigen tests for respiratory viruses historically have specificities of 98-99%, so false positive rates of 1-2% can be expected. Even small imperfections in specificity lead to large numbers of false positive results when tests are deployed on a large scale. If the prevalence of infection is low, a large proportion of positive results will be false positives. As has been recently demonstrated in Nevada skilled nursing facilities, such applications may produce test outcomes resulting in more problems than benefits. Using the manufacturer’s performance characteristics for the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 test, we modeled the percentage of tests that will be positive and the occurrence of false positive results at different prevalence rates of COVID-19.https://asm.org/ASM/media/Article-Im...2.jpg?ext=.jpgPercentage of positive test results, as well as rate of false positive results, at different prevalence rates of COVID-19 using Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 test performance characteristics of 98.5% specificity.
At a prevalence of 0.2% nationwide (based on hospital and college asymptomatic screening data), one in every 59 tests will be positive, and 89% of those results will be a false positive result. If this test were used for everyone in the U.S. on one day, there would be approximately 5.5 million positive results, 4.9 million of which would be false positives

this is the current COVID caseload in the US is about 9 million people. That’s out of 330 million people. But that is existing cases that have already been identified and aren’t going to be traveling. The daily NEW cases are averaging maybe 125,000 a day:https://i.ibb.co/0BTsHbM/D313-FE45-1...8-FCA86-A9.jpg

That means there are at most about a million people out there late enough after exposure to start to be infectious and recent enough from exposure to STILL be infectious. A million out of 330 million is an effective prevalence of 1 out of 330 or 0.3%. For the above example, 84% of the positives would be false positives GIVEN THE MANUFACTURERS OWN FIGURES.

Given the actual values found in the field with tests done by non professionals, the actual number of true positives would go down while the number of false positives would remain unchanged making the predictive value of a positive test even lower that the already pretty bad values.

This isn’t rocket science, it isn’t conspiratorial theory, it isn’t even new - it’s basic probability and statistics. This is Bayes Theorem. It has been around far longer than any of us. Bayes was a statistician who died in 1761.

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Bayes

All true, excargodog, but politicians, the media could t care less, it goes against the simple narrative of stay home and a cowed nation did just that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 3192892)

All true, excargodog, but politicians, the media could t care less, it goes against the simple narrative of stay home and a cowed nation did just that.

Because climate change.

Well, this is sheer lunacy, in my opinion. If you're going to require an (unreliable) covid test for domestic airline travel, why not require a test every time someone steps out of their house? If you wanted to absolutely kill the travel industry, this is one way to start.

I hope that saner heads will prevail. While the American people voted for an administration to take covid more seriously than the last bunch of inept clowns, I really really hope that we haven't simply replaced one set of morons (deniers) with another set (over-reactors.)

I don't believe this is part of some 'concerted effort' to 'kill aviation because climate change.' Most politicians aren't *that* stupid. I think this is mainly a consequence of the classic failings of the political class, which is the frantic desire to 'be seen to be doing something,' even if that something makes no scientific sense.

Nitwits.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbosina (Post 3192938)

dont give them any more great ideas... I can see it now... robotic COVID anal swab machine inside your front door... and it won’t open unless you pass.