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Forgotmywallet 12-17-2020 08:28 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3171765)
P&I on 600K is $2,293 for a 30 year loan at 2.25%. Just a few years ago at the historically low rate of 4%, the payment was $2291.59 on a 480K loan. At 5.5% (2009-2009 rates) that payment would equate to a 400K mortgage. People buy houses on monthly payment more than purchase price. Buyers are skipping the middle home and going from the starter home straight to the forever home.

Inflation will wipe out much of the debt, might as well go big.

You have people with middle class dual incomes taking out 30 year notes at 50. With no means to make that payment at age 80. So the “forever” home is not forever as they realize they have to downsize. Average retirement savings in the US can’t cover a $2300 payment with taxes and no job.

All 5 Stages 12-17-2020 08:44 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3171765)
P&I on 600K is $2,293 for a 30 year loan at 2.25%. Just a few years ago at the historically low rate of 4%, the payment was $2291.59 on a 480K loan. At 5.5% (2009-2009 rates) that payment would equate to a 400K mortgage. People buy houses on monthly payment more than purchase price. Buyers are skipping the middle home and going from the starter home straight to the forever home.

Inflation will wipe out much of the debt, might as well go big.

Folks are refinancing from "historic low" interest rates a few years ago, to this new historic low. Friend of mine at a major Bank says their underwriting department is backlogged at least 2 months i.e. your closing date is 2 or 3 months from when your loan application is completed. Cray-cray.

A5S

TED74 12-17-2020 09:55 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3171765)

Inflation will wipe out much of the debt, might as well go big.

The effective burden of a payment will definitely go down amidst the inflation we have coming. Although property taxes on a 600k house have a pretty good chance of being significant and inflation-adjusting.

TED74 12-17-2020 09:59 AM


Originally Posted by All 5 Stages (Post 3171821)
Folks are refinancing from "historic low" interest rates a few years ago, to this new historic low. Friend of mine at a major Bank says their underwriting department is backlogged at least 2 months i.e. your closing date is 2 or 3 months from when your loan application is completed. Cray-cray.

A5S

My friend in the industry who is going gangbusters believes they're doing some of their last refinance business for a decade. Lucky for her she's about to retire.

JamesBond 12-17-2020 10:19 AM


Originally Posted by Seneca Pilot (Post 3171589)
Naked puts can kill an account, especially if you are on portfolio margin. Always use a spread on the down side.

I got margin called bigly back in early COVID times. It took me six months to dig out of the hole, but I have dug out and a lot more. I hear what you are saying, and trading on margin isnt for the faint of heart, but I stick to my statement that all that exotic spreading/ straddles etc etc etc is a waste of time and limits your profits. dyodd, ymmv, etc etc

Gunfighter 12-17-2020 12:39 PM


Originally Posted by Forgotmywallet (Post 3171803)
You have people with middle class dual incomes taking out 30 year notes at 50. With no means to make that payment at age 80. So the “forever” home is not forever as they realize they have to downsize. Average retirement savings in the US can’t cover a $2300 payment with taxes and no job.

America's financial literacy rate is well below where it should be. Today that dual income, middle class couple live in a house only rich people could afford a few years ago. The 30 year mortgage is "tomorrow guy's" problem. Inflation may help them make an exit 15 years from now. The problem they could face is downsizing from a 2.25% mortgage to a 5% mortgage, when they realize retirees cant afford $2,300 + Tax, Ins & HOA.

mispoken 12-17-2020 03:34 PM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3171964)
America's financial literacy rate is well below where it should be. Today that dual income, middle class couple live in a house only rich people could afford a few years ago. The 30 year mortgage is "tomorrow guy's" problem. Inflation may help them make an exit 15 years from now. The problem they could face is downsizing from a 2.25% mortgage to a 5% mortgage, when they realize retirees cant afford $2,300 + Tax, Ins & HOA.

amen to that one! Financial illiteracy is insanely prevalent in American society. People are more fluent at fantasy fooseball than they are budgeting. It’s most likely all by design. Keep society illiterate so the institutions can exploit it. I graduated with a guy that makes tens of millions selling annuities and underperforming mutual funds. He’s licensed to sell insurance but somehow he has become a local financial expert, Calls himself a financial expert and advisor, goes on local tv and radio, has a podcast etc etc. All that matters is that he calls himself an expert so that people can feel like they’re making the right decision. He’s a prime example of someone who has mastered the art of exploiting the financial illiteracy in our country.

This is the perfect person to ask to produce documented performance on an annualized basis versus the S&P. Watch his eyes glaze over when you do.

I guess the main take away in this entire discussion is, nobody cares about your financial future and well being more than you. I’d say everyone that’s participating in this thread is well ahead of the curve. Cheers!

SonicFlyer 12-17-2020 08:23 PM


Originally Posted by mispoken (Post 3172028)
amen to that one! Financial illiteracy is insanely prevalent in American society. People are more fluent at fantasy fooseball than they are budgeting. It’s most likely all by design. Keep society illiterate so the institutions can exploit it.

This is what happens when the government runs the schools.

gmanpsu 12-18-2020 04:14 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3169460)
The two strategies have nearly identical outcomes. There may be some limited arbitrage opportunity, but traders keep the options premiums very close. The commission efficiency by writing out of the money naked puts (one option sale) vs in the money covered calls (buy stock, sell call, sell stock) may give you a slight edge. The interest earned by keeping cash in your account vs buying the stock is negligible at today's interest rates. The opposite is true if you are looking at out of the money covered calls vs in the money puts when looking at trading cost efficiency.

I too wish we could sell cash secured naked puts.

You can trade cash secured puts in the 401(k)/brokerage link. I forget what the selection was on the paperwork, but you can get it approved.

cashewchop 12-18-2020 04:47 AM

For those of you that bought mid March/April shares, what was the outcome?...sold, hold, buying more etc?.........save, luv, etc......


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