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mispoken 06-21-2021 03:54 AM


Originally Posted by marcal (Post 3252532)
This thread makes me very happy to be dollar cost averaging into index funds. I’ll report back in 25 years.

yeah, as one of the drivers of this clown car, i agree that it’s exhausting.

Going back to the basics, I do the same thing, except in a more focused manner. I have a core group of 20 or so stocks in my PF and I only invest in one to two of those per year. All my retirement money goes to them. Very rarely do I add a new company. This is a “water the flowers and let the weeds die”’approach. If I could setup brokerage link to auto invest in one or two stocks per year, I would. I rarely dig into financials anymore except for a brief overview quarterly to make sure there hasn’t been a fundamental shift, like going from making microchips to mousetraps, or any kind of fraud allegations. It’s one of many ways, but it works for me.

Trip7 06-21-2021 04:26 AM


Originally Posted by mispoken (Post 3252458)
I’ll go check my spreadsheet when I get to my computer. It may have been based on forward projections.



I’ll break this down for you;



Time-the greatest asset in investing. Time smooths all things out. The longer the time frame the greater chance of profiting. The longer the time the less relevant a number divided by another number. The longer the time frame the larger the compounding effect. For those with an ultra long investing mindset, ratios are irrelevant. For those who see things as black and white, and must try to prove you’re smarter than the market and do some basic arithmetic, you’re going to miss out on a lot.



Technology-The closest EV is about a decade behind. The technology is one of the main advantages that Tesla has. It’s why their sales continue to grow exponentially. It’s why they’re sold out for the next 2 quarters. It’s why they’re one of the safest cars on the road. The technology in the cars continues to get better by magnitudes compared to the competition.



Founder-Investing in a founder led company with a huge amount of skin in the game is an important part of an investing thesis. I’d take that any day over an arithmetic problem.



Then there’s you. You divided historical numbers by another historical number and decide if the result meets your criteria based on some conventional wisdom derived in academia.



It’s two different ways of investing although, I think your way is not long term oriented at all and therefore not investing. My way is why I’ve produced 30% annualized for a decade. I ignore all arithmetic when investing. It’s irrelevant.



im actually pretty tired of the back and fourth on this. We just have two different ways of doing this. My methods have proven to me, my way works. Maybe yours does too, we are just waiting on the data. I’d like to continue the investing discussion going forward. If people choose the use the ratios to guide them, good on em. If not, I’m happy to discuss my methods going forward.

30% annualized over a decade? Very impressive. You must be sitting on several millions in investible assets. Hope it isn't all in TSLA!

Time, technology and founder all applies to the greatest company the modern world has ever seen, Apple. Apple was a significantly better business then Tesla from its infancy to today, yet Apple never traded at the eye watering valuations Tesla trades at today.

The EV obsession has become a cult. If a small company mentions clean energy or EVs the stock skyrockets. Anything Musk endorses on Twitter skyrockets. The intrinsic value of a stock is its future cashflows discounted to the present value, not hopes, dreams, and tweets. Mark my words, at today's price, TSLA stock holders will have negative returns over the next 10 years.

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Hawaii50 06-21-2021 07:15 AM


Originally Posted by mispoken (Post 3252617)
yeah, as one of the drivers of this clown car, i agree that it’s exhausting.

Going back to the basics, I do the same thing, except in a more focused manner. I have a core group of 20 or so stocks in my PF and I only invest in one to two of those per year. All my retirement money goes to them. Very rarely do I add a new company. This is a “water the flowers and let the weeds die”’approach. If I could setup brokerage link to auto invest in one or two stocks per year, I would. I rarely dig into financials anymore except for a brief overview quarterly to make sure there hasn’t been a fundamental shift, like going from making microchips to mousetraps, or any kind of fraud allegations. It’s one of many ways, but it works for me.

One thing I've found is I can't have too many different strategies. Find something that works and fine tune it along the way. I found a podcast last year I've really enjoyed called Risk Parity Radio. Not sure I'm all in but definitely food for thought for me. He's geared more toward continuing growth but limiting volatility and drawdowns.

I really appreciate all the good info from you, James, Gunfighter, Trip, and everyone else. It's a cool window to a lot of the good stuff that's out there. Cheers.

Gunfighter 06-21-2021 02:24 PM


Originally Posted by marcal (Post 3252532)
This thread makes me very happy to be dollar cost averaging into index funds. I’ll report back in 25 years.

Try some income producing real estate. It can be done hands off via syndications or hands on via direct ownership. A nice in between option is NNN commercial buildings and/or hiring a property manager. Each approach has its pros and cons.

​​​​​​Over the last 14 years, real estate has crushed my index funds. In 2007 it was 80/20 in favor of funds. Now it's 80/20 the other way. To be fair, most of the real estate was actively managed, so the gains include sweat equity. Balancing that out is the DC contribution into index funds. The RE was only funded out of pocket for the first 5 years, the last nine have been only reinvestment. The index funds have been 415 maxed every year.

Gunfighter 07-17-2021 11:24 AM


Originally Posted by Trip7 (Post 3264878)
Syndication is where the money is at but it man really it take alot of time, energy and capital to set up. If someone thinks 50k min investment is big just the legal fees for setting up a Syndication can easily be north of 50k. But once you have a system built up and a track record look out. That snowball gets bigger and bigger as it accelerates down the hill. Seems the easiest, most stress-free way into becoming a Syndicator is to build wealth until you have enough passive income to live on then take a year or 2 building your business.

I think the biggest benefit of syndications is there is no distracting market that tells you the price of your invest every minute 5 time a week for 8hrs a day. Much less noise for those that are effectived by volatile swings of the open market. Effectively, you wire money, then get quarterly updates and distributions, then in 3-7 years you get all your money back plus capital gains

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I'm replying to a post in the 320/73N vs 7ER QOL thread over here to minimize thread drift.

Becoming a syndicator was high on my list of alternate careers during the VEOP period. The 36 month offramp from Delta would have made for a financially smooth transition. Ultimately it came down to lifestyle over $$$. Being a good syndicator is a full time job, which didn't sound as interesting as being a part-time pilot.

My Side Hustle as WB B on reserve is working out well so far. I'm moving from actively managing self storage into becoming a passive investor in apartments. It has even provided flexibility to play land developer on a JV with an apartment developer. Once I'm done with the entitlements, I'll enjoy the ride as an LP/KP in the deal.

I'm curious enough about the offerings on Equity Multiple that I signed up on the platform. My biggest question for this year is how aggressive the individual syndicators are with cost segregation and bonus depreciation. My assumption is that the equity deals provide K-1s and I'm wondering how much in passive losses they generate the first year.

Trip7 07-17-2021 11:59 AM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3264933)
I'm replying to a post in the 320/73N vs 7ER QOL thread over here to minimize thread drift.



Becoming a syndicator was high on my list of alternate careers during the VEOP period. The 36 month offramp from Delta would have made for a financially smooth transition. Ultimately it came down to lifestyle over $$$. Being a good syndicator is a full time job, which didn't sound as interesting as being a part-time pilot.



My Side Hustle as WB B on reserve is working out well so far. I'm moving from actively managing self storage into becoming a passive investor in apartments. It has even provided flexibility to play land developer on a JV with an apartment developer. Once I'm done with the entitlements, I'll enjoy the ride as an LP/KP in the deal.



I'm curious enough about the offerings on Equity Multiple that I signed up on the platform. My biggest question for this year is how aggressive the individual syndicators are with cost segregation and bonus depreciation. My assumption is that the equity deals provide K-1s and I'm wondering how much in passive losses they generate the first year.

How's managing Self Storage been for you? I imagine it's a bit easier than rentals. As far as the Equity Multiple Depreciation that will vary per deal. Equity Multiple does their own due diligence that presents what they think are good opportunities then you do your own due dillegence. There's an Equity Mulitple representative that can assist you as well with any questions. Overall I sign up and several sites like Equity Multiple, Realty Mogul, Crowdstreet and use them as a filter system to source potential deals. After that I read the materials documenting the deal structure then do a quick search on the Syndicator for reviews/track record.

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fishforfun 07-17-2021 12:16 PM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3252906)
Try some income producing real estate. It can be done hands off via syndications or hands on via direct ownership. A nice in between option is NNN commercial buildings and/or hiring a property manager. Each approach has its pros and cons.

​​​​​​Over the last 14 years, real estate has crushed my index funds. In 2007 it was 80/20 in favor of funds. Now it's 80/20 the other way. To be fair, most of the real estate was actively managed, so the gains include sweat equity. Balancing that out is the DC contribution into index funds. The RE was only funded out of pocket for the first 5 years, the last nine have been only reinvestment. The index funds have been 415 maxed every year.

Real estate is my next step. I’d like to hear your strategy of cash vs debt and single family vs multi amongst other things. Being in FL now isn’t the time but when it is time, I want to be ready to jump.

Gunfighter 07-17-2021 12:19 PM


Originally Posted by Trip7 (Post 3264950)
How's managing Self Storage been for you? I imagine it's a bit easier than rentals. As far as the Equity Multiple Depreciation that will vary per deal. Equity Multiple does their own due diligence that presents what they think are good opportunities then you do your own due dillegence. There's an Equity Mulitple representative that can assist you as well with any questions. Overall I sign up and several sites like Equity Multiple, Realty Mogul, Crowdstreet and use them as a filter system to source potential deals. After that I read the materials documenting the deal structure then do a quick search on the Syndicator for reviews/track record.

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There are pros and cons compared to residential rentals. You have 10x the number of tenants for the same $ in rent. We have managers that staff the offices daily and my wife acts as the regional manager. Its a team effort.

Thanks for the input on the crowdsourcing. I'll use my next SC as an opportunity to be productive and check them out. Have you been invested in any syndications long enough to get a K-1 or is this the first year? The 2020 tax year was my first experience with a K-1 from an apartment syndication and the passive losses from cost segregation and bonus depreciation were eye watering. It was MUCH higher than I've seen on self storage.

Trip7 07-17-2021 12:27 PM


Originally Posted by Gunfighter (Post 3264963)
There are pros and cons compared to residential rentals. You have 10x the number of tenants for the same $ in rent. We have managers that staff the offices daily and my wife acts as the regional manager. Its a team effort.



Thanks for the input on the crowdsourcing. I'll use my next SC as an opportunity to be productive and check them out. Have you been invested in any syndications long enough to get a K-1 or is this the first year? The 2020 tax year was my first experience with a K-1 from an apartment syndication and the passive losses from cost segregation and bonus depreciation were eye watering. It was MUCH higher than I've seen on self storage.

I received a K1 but no passive losses recorded since construction phase was still in place. The property just opened for business Jun 29th. Managed by Public Storage

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RSQHercPilot 07-17-2021 12:39 PM


Originally Posted by Trip7 (Post 3264969)
I received a K1 but no passive losses recorded since construction phase was still in place. The property just opened for business Jun 29th. Managed by Public Storage

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any recommendations on how someone gets smart on syndications? Can you point me in the right direction to do some research. Thanks!


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