Airline Pilot Central Forums - Negotiators: more cost data please

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 2814171)

There is a critical flaw with trying to find a cost of a contract. Airlines (even Delta) are not able to accurately predict the cost of each section of a contract.

All reasonable but both sides do it anyway. Forecasts are hard and uncertain. That doesn't mean that we don't use them or that they aren't useful.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldFlyGuy (Post 2814110)

BTW, what was the CASM for the stock buybacks.. dividends... purchasing 787s for other airlines to fly? One foot out the door. OFG

Good point: dividend per average seat mile over the last decade (including buybacks) are good data too. Add that to my request.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gopher3 (Post 2814166)

Lets start out by getting rid of pilot negotiators. Hire professional negotiators....even better.....hire some former company negotiators. Im pretty sure Dalpa could afford it. Take a look at what the Delta Pilots pay in dues annually to the Alpa bureaucracy. That is staggering.

Um they do use professional negotiators. All ALPA groups do. ALPA has a gaggle of them. Why does this bad info come up time and time again?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kevbo (Post 2814097)

Since the 70s, pilots have given up compensation and CASM has dropped.

Precisely why we should articulate CASM for the contract items we press for. This contract should reclaim the CASM lost since C2k or before. In my view CASM should be the unit of measurement for contract discussion. Find another unit if you like, but until we can compare apples to apples we are just talking past each other.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 2814171)

There is a critical flaw with trying to find a cost of a contract. Airlines (even Delta) are not able to accurately predict the cost of each section of a contract.

It is like an owner of a grocery store trying to see what their 5 year profits will be if they increase the price of crackers. Once the price changes, the market changes. People may start to find cheaper alternatives such as chips.

Airline costs and profits are much harder to predict than most businesses. There are too many variables. Not only do they have to make wild guesses about future loads and route structures (that change weekly), they have to predict how the pilots will respond. Maybe improved deadhead language will make deadheads cost more to the company. They may respond by taking a 3 day trip that ended with a deadhead and adding another day in order to make the crew operate a flight rather than deadhead. That may then cause commuters who liked to deviate to bid off that aircraft. That will cause an increase in training costs that may be greater than the deadhead.

The cost of a contract is dynamic. Language that may start out expensive on day one might be cheap by the end of the first year. Other language that started out cheap might end up costing the most by the end of the contract.

Perfect is the enemy of good. Have you told our negotiators and the company's that costing any item is futile and methodology used the last several decades is worthless? Have you suggested to Wall Street that they stop projecting earnings, growth, and profits?

A realtor doesn't know what the final sale price will be on any given house. But they know not to show me houses that will go over 10 million or under $100,000. Without a best guest on some of our contractual items, we don't even have enough knowledge window shop various proposals with that decidedly low level of precision.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 2814182)

Have you told our negotiators and the company's that costing any item is futile and methodology used the last several decades is worthless?

Estimating the cost of contractual language does have its uses, but settling debates in the cockpit aren't one of them. The idea that ALPA can determine that improved DH language is 3 cents more than a increased vacation is laughable. If ALAP were to publish the "costs" of our demands, those numbers would be meaningless within a few weeks. As the negotiations continue, the formula changes and therefore the costs change. If they published their guess at the cost of contractual language today pilots would be using that out of date info for the next 30 years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 2814182)

Have you suggested to Wall Street that they stop projecting earnings, growth, and profits?

Yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 2814182)

A realtor doesn't know what the final sale price will be on any given house. But they know not to show me houses that will go over 10 million or under $100,000.

But what the OP wants IS the realtor to predict the final sale price of a house. The OP wants to add up the individual components of all the houses so they can determine if the newer light fixtures in one house are better than the nicer windows in another. We already told the realtor (the union) what we want. Their job is to find us a house (TA) that meets out standards and we get to decide (vote) on if we like it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2StgTurbine (Post 2814210)

I beg to differ....not the same at all. Hopefully a realtor doesn’t show you just one house and expect you to make a decision, at least when I buy a house or a car I have several options to choose from.....not just 1 take it or leave it offer with no alternate scenarios. Much, much different than membership ratification on a contract.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TED74 (Post 2814160)

Or could I turn back my buddy passes for 2 PS tickets a year?

TED......agree whit what you said but, I think I can offer some insight to this one question. Buddy passes are a revenue generator for the company......they unload excess inventory and shed “spoiled fruit” with ancilliary income(while a lot of times frustrating the buddy pass rider). So in your example, it would be a double loss for the company....loss of income for the company on the buddy pass combined with a loss of income on the PS pass.

Even though I just said it, it would be nice to know the costs for the said items......I would encourage the MEC/negotiators to include those costing data(even if just rudimentary) into the surveys in the future. As it is it’s commensurate to asking individuals who pay no taxes if they want more free stuff(as if there is no limit/cost)to be born.

I realize you didn’t say this, but...it has been said here today that there is no “pie” to be divvied up. I whole heartedly disagree with this sentiment, there is a pie(the size may grow or shrink) but how we divvy it up falls to the negotiators. To “ass”ume that it is unlimited, or reflects something from the past is.........hmmm.......naive?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gspeed (Post 2814179)

Um they do use professional negotiators. All ALPA groups do. ALPA has a gaggle of them. Why does this bad info come up time and time again?

+1 They DO use professional negotiators.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gopher3 (Post 2814166)

We already have and our using professional negotiators. We have always done that. We have even used professional negotiators hired from outside the ALPA network. They were found to be of little value. Talk to your reps about how negotiations work and how we integrate the professionals into the process.