Negotiators: more cost data please
 

Bottom line: the pilot group would benefit from cost estimates for our various contract requests.

Most of us have thought about the contract negotiations and have an idea what we would like to see from a tentative agreement. It is a common topic of conversation at top of cruise, where the captain and I can typically articulate what we think the TA should contain. Unfortunately, we have zero ability to talk intelligently about compromise or trades between the two positions because we have little knowledge of what each of our positions would cost Delta Air Lines. . So I propose that the DALPA negotiating committee publish their estimates of the additional CASM (cost per available seat mile) of the top 50 requests they have for contract improvements.

ALPA's contract education products included a contract history document. That document contains "pilot CASM" for each contract, which was interesting to me as a way to track the relative value of the contracts over time while controlling for the size of the pilot group and the underlying airline operation.

If these estimates were published, at cruise the two of us could pose some total increase in pilot CASM that we think the company would stomach, then figure out (or argue about) a compromise position between our personal positions. This would have the positive effect of moving away from a discussion based on what we deserve to one based on what is achievable in the business called Delta Air Lines. If we thought that the company would be willing to take a $1.00 CASM increase to Wall Street, then we might agree that my domestic lobster thermidor meals could be served Fridays only to keep the additional pilot CASM to $0.25 so we could accommodate the captain's request for replacing all of the pilot seats with magic fingers massage chairs (pilot CASM increase of $0.75).

I think these data would not only foster more informed discussion at cruise but would improve the quality of input and demand that our union receives from the pilot group. Rather than sounding like Spaulding's lunch order, we could offer our reps some more informed positions and potential compromises. I've emailed my rep and had a good discussion with him on this topic, but the workload this will generate means that we won't see this based on one guy's good idea. Many of us will have to ask for this. Hence this post.

Some responses to criticisms that I haven't yet heard:

• Cost data are proprietary. They can't publish that. ALPA has access to Delta proprietary data and would have to generate these estimates using publicly available estimates. This will reduce the quality of the estimates but imperfect data are better than no data.
• This will give away our negotiating position. I don't think so. The key secret in this negotiation is what the negotiating committee will accept in a TA. No estimate of this should be published and we users of these data would have to come up with a total value (increased pilot CASM) that we would accept. Those of us talking about this at cruise will have to start with, "I think the company will sign a contract that increases CASM $X.XX." The MEC's opinion on that topic is the big secret and we wont know that. As long as the MEC publishes a large list of potential TA menu items here, it also will not shed useful light on their priorities; the opener was very broad as this menu should be.
• Some of our priorities don't affect CASM. True; it would still be useful to understand the cost of the ones that do.
• Some of our priorities could vary in cost True; many would have to be valued in $X.XX per hour of value increase in vacation day, for example.
• This will be a lot of work for the negotiators. True; I think the value to the membership makes it worthwhile.

If you, too, want to see a TA menu with associated CASM increases for each item, then email your reps. Addresses can be found at the Delta MEC website.

Management can afford 100% of our opener.

20% of their buybacks at most.

Don’t play their game.

Mr. Bastain’s compensation was up over 13% last year and if you look annually the numbers are staggering.

Since the 70s, pilots have given up compensation and CASM has dropped. Anything other than a continuation of this trend is unacceptable to the company. This is why all you Boy Scouts need to grow some stones and get serious about protecting YOUR interests.

I'm not sure how publishing the CASM data or our targets (or DL's) helps anything. Pilot CASM is also influenced by the company operating a wildly diverse fleet and a hub/spoke system. Anything proprietary isn't going to be released anyway. BTW, what was the CASM for the stock buybacks.. dividends... purchasing 787s for other airlines to fly? One foot out the door. OFG

Amen.

Management ploy. First of many to come.

Next we will hear about the “pie” theory.

It’s our turn. They took 10 times what they needed in Chapter 11.

Unfortunately, the union's purpose is not improve the quality of our conversations about the contract in cruise.

Discussing what YOU want in the contract in cruise wan't accomplish anything. Your time to influence the negotiations was over the last few years during the polling.

Fair; I allowed my example to merge with the discussion. I disagree that our time to influence the process has passed. The union still works for us. We can influence them now and we can vote on a TA. Our involvement continues to the extent that we want to influence the process (I hope).

I agree it would be nice to have some sense of what value certain contractual changes likely hold. I don't even require very accurate info because many of us might be off by a factor of 10 or 20 trying to simply guess on some of these items. Even a very rough estimate, stripped of proprietary data, would be useful.

Is improved DH language equivalent to expanded crew meals...or is it ten times as costly? Or could I turn back my buddy passes for 2 PS tickets a year? Is going to 20% DC equivalent to paying training at 5:15? Is an extra week of vacation equivalent to SC paying 1hr above guarantee? Does a 3 year seat lock with exceptions offset paying vacation at 5:15?

Lets start out by getting rid of pilot negotiators. Hire professional negotiators....even better.....hire some former company negotiators. Im pretty sure Dalpa could afford it. Take a look at what the Delta Pilots pay in dues annually to the Alpa bureaucracy. That is staggering.

There is a critical flaw with trying to find a cost of a contract. Airlines (even Delta) are not able to accurately predict the cost of each section of a contract.

It is like an owner of a grocery store trying to see what their 5 year profits will be if they increase the price of crackers. Once the price changes, the market changes. People may start to find cheaper alternatives such as chips.

Airline costs and profits are much harder to predict than most businesses. There are too many variables. Not only do they have to make wild guesses about future loads and route structures (that change weekly), they have to predict how the pilots will respond. Maybe improved deadhead language will make deadheads cost more to the company. They may respond by taking a 3 day trip that ended with a deadhead and adding another day in order to make the crew operate a flight rather than deadhead. That may then cause commuters who liked to deviate to bid off that aircraft. That will cause an increase in training costs that may be greater than the deadhead.

The cost of a contract is dynamic. Language that may start out expensive on day one might be cheap by the end of the first year. Other language that started out cheap might end up costing the most by the end of the contract.