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gzsg 05-24-2019 03:32 PM

Chairman’s Letter
 
Fellow Delta Pilots,

The busy summer flying season is upon us. Typical of this time of year, Delta pilots can expect a breakneck operational pace, potential delays associated with weather and high load factors systemwide. These issues — combined with Delta's focus on D-O, A-O, 100% completion factor days — will make for a challenging few months on the line.

While we've become accustomed to these pressures, there's more to the story. Delta's unrelenting campaign to cut business expenses and its internal target of "one percent non-fuel unit cost growth in 2019" is adding to operational pressure on all front-line employees including us, the pilots. We have been subjected to dealing with the consequences of these cost-cutting initiatives for many months, and ALPA expects these budget-driven decisions to increase the operational pressure we are feeling. Delta's operational expense-lowering decisions have resulted in:

reduced layover times (buffers);
attrition outpacing pilot hiring; and,
greater reliance on pilots picking up extra flying with White and Green Slips to save the operation.

Delta has staked a large part of its strategy by appealing to customers with superior operational reliability that sets us apart from our peers. Operational reliability rewards Delta with premium revenue, but running the operation on the barber pole can also have a direct impact on pilot schedules and potentially safety. The burden of operational reliability is increasingly falling on our, the pilots', shoulders in the form of increased reroutes, staffing shortages, FDP extensions and fatiguing schedules. That is why ALPA is doing all we can to educate you, point out the tools we have at your disposal, and ensure that you are prepared for the most challenging months of the year.

The Company repeatedly touts pilots as frontline leaders and relies upon our judgement, decision-making and skills to conduct a safe operation. We demonstrate that operational excellence and our commitment to the corporate goals every time we fly. With that in mind, please remember the following.

Reroutes and FAR Compliance
Reroutes have become significantly more prevalent and can add to the confusion in time-critical situations. The Delta MEC Scheduling Committee has seen an uptick in rotations not in compliance with the FARs. Delta's Crew Tracking department is responsible for reroutes and, despite their efforts, there have been instances of inadvertent FAR violations. Consequently, it is incumbent on you to ensure that your assignment is FAR compliant. Some common errors ALPA has observed involve diversions, changes from deadhead to operating flights, adding segments to a flight duty day and lengthy IROPS that change your FDPs and LATT times. Be sure to remember, you cannot be rerouted into an FDP extension.

You are the last line of defense against an illegal reroute and have a shared responsibility with the Company to ensure legality. When in doubt, expand your team; ask your fellow crew members if this reroute seems okay, make sure the dispatcher is giving you timely and accurate information, utilize the ALPA resources on the iPad, etc. If in doubt, call ALPA Scheduling at 800-USA-ALPA during business hours, or you can reach an After Hours Support Network volunteer 24/7 at 866-239-0437. Always know what your flight duty day is and be attentive when approaching an extension. If you feel that there was a potential FAR 117 violation or are unsure about the legality of a flight you operated or were assigned, please file an ASAP report.

Extensions
Starting in June, Delta pilots will have a new ACARS notification for extensions. This will require each pilot to concur with the extension. Know your LATT times and how to calculate them to avoid going beyond your FDP. If in doubt, call ALPA Scheduling at 800-USA-ALPA during business hours, or you can reach an After Hours Support Network volunteer 24/7 at 866-239-0437.

Fatigue
Always evaluate your fatigue level and those of your fellow crewmembers when confronted with an extension. If you are fatigued and need to stop the operation, you must do so. Submit a Fitness for Duty Report (FFDR) and the Fitness Review Board (FRB) will evaluate your circumstances and pay-protect you for your professional decision. Again, operational reliability is driving many of Crew Tracking's decisions. Please remain vigilant about your individual situation.

Staffing Issues
Incorrect staffing at certain bases, fleets and positions have resulted in staffing inequalities and poorly constructed rotations. The RCC is working every month to make the schedules as accommodating to your request as possible. They will continue to fight for a balanced trip mix that enhances your monthly schedule. The result may be you fly with different crewmembers on multiple legs. However, do not let operational pressures prevent you from taking the necessary time you feel is needed to fully brief your fellow crewmembers and complete preflight duties. The Company frequently reminds us to set the parking brake and slow the operation down whenever required. Take your time and always put safety first.

Relationship with the Company
So far this year, I have tried to create and maintain a good working relationship with senior Delta management. I have had regular, in-person meetings and have strived to be a good business partner on behalf of our pilot group. I have used strong language when needed regarding PWA violations and negotiating priorities that are of the utmost importance but have done this with respect. Unfortunately, Company communications have taken a hostile tone towards organized labor in general.

First, the Company insulted our below-wing colleagues with a series of ill-conceived posters. Then, over the weekend, a response was delivered to Sen. Bernie Sanders that felt like a poke in the eye to the thousands of Delta pilots who had their pensions stripped away from them during bankruptcy. My disappointment with this gratuitous statement — and the misperception that the Delta pilots "voluntarily" surrendered our pension — cannot be overstated. In light of these unfortunate developments, I have grave concerns whether this is indicative of a wholesale shift in Delta's longstanding approach of partnering with its pilots in this enterprise. I believe that we can and should strive to do better and treat each other with mutual respect. And while we can — and will — fight about issues upon which we disagree, it does not prevent us from collaborating on other matters of importance and ultimately, continuing to focus on beating the many threats we jointly face.

Be smart, fly safe, and please contact your ALPA reps and committee members should you encounter any scheduling or operational difficulties this summer.

In unity,



Ryan Schnitzler, Chairman
Delta Master Executive Council

Buck Rogers 05-24-2019 04:45 PM

"greater reliance on pilots picking up extra flying with White and Green Slips to save the operation."


I think he's missing the boat here......pilots pick up white slips and green slips because it is lucrative......never once has a pilot told me he is on a green slip to "save the operation". That may be a by-product but NOT the reason for the pick-up......seems to altruistic of a motive to me.

Not critiquing the letter in general......just a point of clarification re this one point

contrails 05-24-2019 04:59 PM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2825802)
"greater reliance on pilots picking up extra flying with White and Green Slips to save the operation."


I think he's missing the boat here......pilots pick up white slips and green slips because it is lucrative......never once has a pilot told me he is on a green slip to "save the operation". That may be a by-product but NOT the reason for the pick-up......seems to altruistic of a motive to me.

Not critiquing the letter in general......just a point of clarification re this one point

Just a point of clarification to your post.

He did not say that the pilot's intent was to save the operation.

He said that management relies on our extra work to result in the saving of the operation.

There is a big difference.

APCLurker 05-24-2019 05:16 PM


Originally Posted by contrails (Post 2825808)
Just a point of clarification to your post.

He did not say that the pilot's intent was to save the operation.

He said that management relies on our extra work to result in the saving of the operation.

There is a big difference.


Exactly. That is how I read it as well.


I think the one "missing the boat" on this point is you Buck.

Buck Rogers 05-24-2019 08:06 PM

gotcha ....agreed...mea culpa

FWIW I typed what I did and didn't post it.....just exited APC but it posted on my exit

none the less....I stand corrected....just kinda scanned the letter looking for how retro was gonna pay out( to no avail)....that one thing jumped out at me.....typed up my post, and either I posted it by accident or ????

Everyone feel better now??? BTW, as I've been asking on another thread, who gets reto? Do you think that if it was spelled out, that would be a good thing and help solidify unity?

Denny Crane 05-24-2019 08:12 PM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2825888)
gotcha ....agreed...mea culpa

FWIW I typed what I did and didn't post it.....just exited APC but it posted on my exit

none the less....I stand corrected....just kinda scanned the letter looking for how retro was gonna pay out( to no avail)....that one thing jumped out at me.....typed up my post, and either I posted it by accident or ????

Everyone feel better now??? BTW, as I've been asking on another thread, who gets reto? Do you think that if it was spelled out, that would be a good thing and help solidify unity?

Who gets retro? In answer to your question, whomever it is negotiated for. That will not be decided until the end of negotiations.

Denny

Buck Rogers 05-24-2019 08:28 PM

Well DUH....the way it's set up now, you are correct( are you trying to be flippant?)(sometimes intent and tone is hard to decipher in text) So something comes up for a vote ala TA1......nothing has been negotiated re retro and I'm due to retire in 1 year......what do you think I'm gonna do?......

Is that even reasonable? If you think it is, please explain. Tommorow, I'll see if I can find the verbiage SWA put out prior to their last contract vote detailing all the in's and out's of what I considered to be reasonable 3 years ago......

It's good to know the rules of the game before I have to play(vote). It's not like management isn't gonna figure it out before the final TA and we then pull a quick one over on them getting retro unbeknownst to them.

This is assuming we go past the amendable date. If it's prior to the amendable date you can expect the vast majority will be yes voters if within a couple of years of retirement.....so assume 1000 near retirement voters all being YES no matter how bad the scope/RR/reserve/DC/sick etc is........that can certainly tip a vote due to self preservation

What's the secret?? Additionally, it may need to be set out up front so that the proper pressure can/can't be put on reps if things are dragging on

Denny Crane 05-24-2019 08:40 PM

You asked for an answer to a question that you knew could not be truly answered until the end of negotiations. So yeah, I was being a little flippant.;)

I think it reasonable to assume that someone on the seniority list after the amenable date will get whatever retro pay they are due just like the last contract.

Pretty sure you will know if retro is part of the deal before you vote on a contract past the amendable date.

You're probably correct in your number of YES voters if a deal is reached before the end of this year..........I'm not holding my breath on that idea....

There is no secret. Retro is a negotiated item and it will not be decided until the end of the negotiation process. Just gonna have to use your best judgment.

Denny

Buck Rogers 05-24-2019 08:45 PM

Well, I think there is a better way. Hopefully most pilots do and get the negotiators to craft the retro plan and publish it sooner rather than later.

If you/anybody has a good reason why later is better than sooner, I'd like to hear it and mull it over

Denny Crane 05-24-2019 11:04 PM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2825912)
Well, I think there is a better way. Hopefully most pilots do and get the negotiators to craft the retro plan and publish it sooner rather than later.

If you/anybody has a good reason why later is better than sooner, I'd like to hear it and mull it over

Sure I’d like to see it written in stone early...the problem is it takes two to tango. The company has to agree to it also and that’s just not gonna happen until late in the negotiation process.

Denny

sailingfun 05-25-2019 03:41 AM


Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 2825911)
You asked for an answer to a question that you knew could not be truly answered until the end of negotiations. So yeah, I was being a little flippant.;)

I think it reasonable to assume that someone on the seniority list after the amenable date will get whatever retro pay they are due just like the last contract.

Pretty sure you will know if retro is part of the deal before you vote on a contract past the amendable date.

You're probably correct in your number of YES voters if a deal is reached before the end of this year..........I'm not holding my breath on that idea....

There is no secret. Retro is a negotiated item and it will not be decided until the end of the negotiation process. Just gonna have to use your best judgment.

Denny

The likelihood of full retro depends on how far past the amendable date a contract is signed. Less than a year it’s very likely, 1 to 2 years less likely, over 2 unlikely. It also can hinge on who the mediator feels is the reason for the delay.

gzsg 05-25-2019 04:34 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2825959)
The likelihood of full retro depends on how far past the amendable date a contract is signed. Less than a year it’s very likely, 1 to 2 years less likely, over 2 unlikely. It also can hinge on who the mediator feels is the reason for the delay.

I couldn’t disagree more. You are stuck in the past.

Any agreement, no matter time it took to negotiate, without full retroactive pay would be destroyed by MEMRAT. 90%/10%.

Sailing Delta will be getting $7 Billion each and every year from the American Express deal.

They can afford retro my friend.

Fredturbo 05-25-2019 04:55 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2825959)
The likelihood of full retro depends on how far past the amendable date a contract is signed. Less than a year it’s very likely, 1 to 2 years less likely, over 2 unlikely. It also can hinge on who the mediator feels is the reason for the delay.

You don’t know this. Another wrong guess made on the forums.

sailingfun 05-25-2019 05:11 AM


Originally Posted by Fredturbo (Post 2825977)
You don’t know this. Another wrong guess made on the forums.

However virtually 100% historically correct. You know what they say about history!

Hillbilly 05-25-2019 05:20 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2825959)
The likelihood of full retro depends on how far past the amendable date a contract is signed. Less than a year it’s very likely, 1 to 2 years less likely, over 2 unlikely. It also can hinge on who the mediator feels is the reason for the delay.

I agree with your last sentence, but depending on the negotiating stance I don't think retro is unlikely beyond 2 years. I do believe a drawn out negotiation does impact what that "full retro" looks like. IIRC, the last SWA deal reflected this. They got "full retro", but years 1 and 2 beyond the amendable date were small raises that the retro was based on and the bulk of the raise they were going to see at date of signing occurred in the most recent yearly step. Now they paid everyone out in full on it, but the retro for the first couple of years was tiny compared to the raise they were getting. I do not recall the exact numbers, but it was like getting a 20% raise after negotiating for 4 years (3 past the amendable date) with year 1 at 3%, year 2 at 4% and year 3 at 12%. They didn't get 20% all the way back to the amendable date.

RonRicco 05-25-2019 05:20 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2825970)
I couldn’t disagree more. You are stuck in the past.

Any agreement, no matter time it took to negotiate, without full retroactive pay would be destroyed by MEMRAT. 90%/10%.

Sailing Delta will be getting $7 Billion each and every year from the American Express deal.

They can afford retro my friend.

Y’all need to listen to this guy. I made a crap load shorting oil when he predicted it was going to be down to $10 a barrel and got a great deal on a mortgage on his prediction that Anderson would be back the “next day” with a new deal.

RonRicco 05-25-2019 05:39 AM


Originally Posted by Hillbilly (Post 2825989)
I agree with your last sentence, but depending on the negotiating stance I don't think retro is unlikely beyond 2 years. I do believe a drawn out negotiation does impact what that "full retro" looks like. IIRC, the last SWA deal reflected this. They got "full retro", but years 1 and 2 beyond the amendable date were small raises that the retro was based on and the bulk of the raise they were going to see at date of signing occurred in the most recent yearly step. Now they paid everyone out in full on it, but the retro for the first couple of years was tiny compared to the raise they were getting. I do not recall the exact numbers, but it was like getting a 20% raise after negotiating for 4 years (3 past the amendable date) with year 1 at 3%, year 2 at 4% and year 3 at 12%. They didn't get 20% all the way back to the amendable date.

Exactly. Anything is possible of course, but say you get 30% over 4 years and it takes you 4 years to get there, the likelihood of a single check that large being written is not great IMO.

At least on social media, it seems like the focus is QOL, scope,and retirement anyway. There isn’t really any retro for most QOL items, (you will never get those reroutes or C+ seats back) scope, and even retirement issues can become tricky since people are leaving the list during the negotiation.

And before anyone starts in like I am saying I want a “quick deal” that is NOT what I am saying. I am saying there is a counter argument to the “as long as it takes” segment (how long is long?) of the pilot group that think there is going to be a perfect TA if we negotiate to infinity.

Hillbilly 05-25-2019 05:40 AM


Originally Posted by RonRicco (Post 2825990)
Y’all need to listen to this guy. I made a crap load shorting oil when he predicted it was going to be down to $10 a barrel and got a great deal on a mortgage on his prediction that Anderson would be back the “next day” with a new deal.

He's cried wolf with exuberance and flair so many times that he has unfortunately diminished his credibility. Nobody gets it right all the time, but every proclamation can't be the "best I've ever seen" or "historic" or whatever the overstated adjectives of the day are. He makes some very good points that I agree with, but they get lost among the other exaggerations. He is right that Delta can afford it.

gzsg 05-25-2019 06:09 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2825986)
However virtually 100% historically correct. You know what they say about history!

Sailing

Do you think the industry has changed at all?

Would you please list the Delta profits and revenue for the last 30 years?

Never mind, we all know the answer.

No Delta pilot would ever vote for a contract without full retro. And this MEC would never send us one.

Buck Rogers 05-25-2019 06:49 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826016)
Sailing

No Delta pilot would ever vote for a contract without full retro. And this MEC would never send us one.


So, if there is some sorta retire medical.....AND.....we are 2 years past the amendable date.....and I had to retire 1 day prior to the vote......I will receive....1. The retiree medical plan
2. The % increase to my W-2's for those 2 years

and the cash balance plan?????


And this comes with a Jerry guarantee?, a MEC guarantee?, whose guarantee? Is that written somewhere so that I can reference it?


This is all very interesting, and well worth the discussion, cause previously the answers as to "the recipients" ran the gamut of "if you're not on the property you'll get nothing" to "of course everyone gets it, what a stupid question"


I gotta be up front about this. Depending on the answer, my vote could be..."I'll vote for any POS TA (TA1) cause it could cost me 100k if it doesn't pass, ......to ......."I'll vote "NO" cause I'm "protected" and I think all pilots deserve better".....I like to think of myself as fairly altruistic......I just don't trust those other 2500 pilots approaching retirement in the next 3 years:rolleyes:......Those are "tip the scale" numbers.....and thus very important to unity

MoonShot 05-25-2019 08:22 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826036)
So, if there is some sorta retire medical.....AND.....we are 2 years past the amendable date.....and I had to retire 1 day prior to the vote......I will receive....1. The retiree medical plan
2. The % increase to my W-2's for those 2 years

and the cash balance plan?????


And this comes with a Jerry guarantee?, a MEC guarantee?, whose guarantee? Is that written somewhere so that I can reference it?


This is all very interesting, and well worth the discussion, cause previously the answers as to "the recipients" ran the gamut of "if you're not on the property you'll get nothing" to "of course everyone gets it, what a stupid question"


I gotta be up front about this. Depending on the answer, my vote could be..."I'll vote for any POS TA (TA1) cause it could cost me 100k if it doesn't pass, ......to ......."I'll vote "NO" cause I'm "protected" and I think all pilots deserve better".....I like to think of myself as fairly altruistic......I just don't trust those other 2500 pilots approaching retirement in the next 3 years:rolleyes:......Those are "tip the scale" numbers.....and thus very important to unity

Perhaps you should ask your reps vs. random line guys on a pilot forum if it’s such a big choice (a choice in not minimizing).

I’d say, don’t put the cart in front of the horse yet though, as we just started negotiations so it’d be hard to answer any of your questions.

notEnuf 05-25-2019 08:25 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826036)
So, if there is some sorta retire medical.....AND.....we are 2 years past the amendable date.....and I had to retire 1 day prior to the vote......I will receive....1. The retiree medical plan
2. The % increase to my W-2's for those 2 years

and the cash balance plan?????


And this comes with a Jerry guarantee?, a MEC guarantee?, whose guarantee? Is that written somewhere so that I can reference it?


This is all very interesting, and well worth the discussion, cause previously the answers as to "the recipients" ran the gamut of "if you're not on the property you'll get nothing" to "of course everyone gets it, what a stupid question"


I gotta be up front about this. Depending on the answer, my vote could be..."I'll vote for any POS TA (TA1) cause it could cost me 100k if it doesn't pass, ......to ......."I'll vote "NO" cause I'm "protected" and I think all pilots deserve better".....I like to think of myself as fairly altruistic......I just don't trust those other 2500 pilots approaching retirement in the next 3 years:rolleyes:......Those are "tip the scale" numbers.....and thus very important to unity

I understand your situation but we'll never get an answer before the TA. And frankly history is the best guide. There is hope though, we broke the mold with TA1 so history doesn't necessarily have to repeat.

gzsg 05-25-2019 09:07 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826036)
So, if there is some sorta retire medical.....AND.....we are 2 years past the amendable date.....and I had to retire 1 day prior to the vote......I will receive....1. The retiree medical plan
2. The % increase to my W-2's for those 2 years

and the cash balance plan?????


And this comes with a Jerry guarantee?, a MEC guarantee?, whose guarantee? Is that written somewhere so that I can reference it?


This is all very interesting, and well worth the discussion, cause previously the answers as to "the recipients" ran the gamut of "if you're not on the property you'll get nothing" to "of course everyone gets it, what a stupid question"


I gotta be up front about this. Depending on the answer, my vote could be..."I'll vote for any POS TA (TA1) cause it could cost me 100k if it doesn't pass, ......to ......."I'll vote "NO" cause I'm "protected" and I think all pilots deserve better".....I like to think of myself as fairly altruistic......I just don't trust those other 2500 pilots approaching retirement in the next 3 years:rolleyes:......Those are "tip the scale" numbers.....and thus very important to unity

They are all out to get you!

Have you ever looked at the age and seniority number of all the MEC, admin and negotiators?

Buck Rogers 05-25-2019 11:30 AM

Jerry,

Would that mimic the same age and seniority of the MEC and negotiators on TA1? Yea, same, same as I thought. How'd that work out for TA1? My best Alfred E. Neumann imitation......"What, me worry"?

So, since TA1 had no retro(because it was "early")....how would all the "ambivalent" guys feel if that got voted "IN" as opposed to being voted "DOWN". Something like that is a distinct possibility if 2500 guys approaching retirement vote en masse for a POS because no "retro" policy has been formulated during the quiet times( you know, when it's not needed).

Macht nichts to me, I won't be living under it for 20-30 years. Kinda surprised at the ambivalence of the younger guys, I see this only going sideways or neutral for them, there is no upside.

gzsg 05-25-2019 01:07 PM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826176)
Jerry,

Would that mimic the same age and seniority of the MEC and negotiators on TA1? Yea, same, same as I thought. How'd that work out for TA1? My best Alfred E. Neumann imitation......"What, me worry"?

So, since TA1 had no retro(because it was "early")....how would all the "ambivalent" guys feel if that got voted "IN" as opposed to being voted "DOWN". Something like that is a distinct possibility if 2500 guys approaching retirement vote en masse for a POS because no "retro" policy has been formulated during the quiet times( you know, when it's not needed).

Macht nichts to me, I won't be living under it for 20-30 years. Kinda surprised at the ambivalence of the younger guys, I see this only going sideways or neutral for them, there is no upside.

We all just share our opinions here.

In my opinion, we will make major gains across the board. In just 36 months Delta will be making $7 Billion annually from its new deal with American Express.

There is enough money times 10 for the gains we will attain.

Our younger pilots will benefit greatly. Higher value of vacation day, min day, training day, per diem, hourly rates, retirement, insurance, fix reroute, deadhead, scope, etc.

Seems to me you are trying to create I divide and deliver us for less to management. I hope I am wrong.

Hossharris 05-26-2019 04:46 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826036)
So, if there is some sorta retire medical.....AND.....we are 2 years past the amendable date.....and I had to retire 1 day prior to the vote......I will receive....1. The retiree medical plan
2. The % increase to my W-2's for those 2 years

and the cash balance plan?????


And this comes with a Jerry guarantee?, a MEC guarantee?, whose guarantee? Is that written somewhere so that I can reference it?


This is all very interesting, and well worth the discussion, cause previously the answers as to "the recipients" ran the gamut of "if you're not on the property you'll get nothing" to "of course everyone gets it, what a stupid question"


I gotta be up front about this. Depending on the answer, my vote could be..."I'll vote for any POS TA (TA1) cause it could cost me 100k if it doesn't pass, ......to ......."I'll vote "NO" cause I'm "protected" and I think all pilots deserve better".....I like to think of myself as fairly altruistic......I just don't trust those other 2500 pilots approaching retirement in the next 3 years:rolleyes:......Those are "tip the scale" numbers.....and thus very important to unity

If you’re retired, you won’t be voting either way ....

Buck Rogers 05-26-2019 05:04 AM


Originally Posted by Hossharris (Post 2826498)
If you’re retired, you won’t be voting either way ....

Yes, I would have. I would vote for TA1,(and I suggest almost all the other 2500 guys nearing retirement would too) because with no retro plan formulated, I (they)can't afford the "stand your ground" of turning down TA1 for a better TA2.....at some date in the future.

Viola.....a crappy contract comes to fruition, much to the angst of the more junior pilots, and they're left scratching their heads going, " who woulda thought that was gonna happen"?

A TA that was gonna fail 55%-45% will now pass by about 55%-45% because they can't stand the risk of a long drawn out re-negotiation possibly leading to the scenario I outlined.

Clear now?

sailingfun 05-26-2019 05:16 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826230)
We all just share our opinions here.

In my opinion, we will make major gains across the board. In just 36 months Delta will be making $7 Billion annually from its new deal with American Express.

There is enough money times 10 for the gains we will attain.

Our younger pilots will benefit greatly. Higher value of vacation day, min day, training day, per diem, hourly rates, retirement, insurance, fix reroute, deadhead, scope, etc.

Seems to me you are trying to create I divide and deliver us for less to management. I hope I am wrong.

Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.6 billion from current revenue generated by the AMEX program. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.6 billion should up Delta’s profit 540 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit and the revenue increase from today is 3.6 billion not 7.
The one thing I do know is you are very intelligent. You did not post this by mistake. It was posted intentionally and you knew it was wildly incorrect to claim it was 10 times the improvements we are asking for in the contract. The other strange thing is that if the 10 times the contract cost statement were correct you suggest we will obtain 700 million in contractual improvements. I understand the opener was closer to 2 billion.

gzsg 05-26-2019 05:26 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826508)
Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.5 billion from current revenue generated. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.5 billion should up Delta’s profit 525 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit.

The articles I read say the American Express money is mostly profit.

Love you predictable attempt to water it down for management.

sailingfun 05-26-2019 05:35 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826510)
The articles I read say the American Express money is mostly profit.

Love you predictable attempt to water it down for management.

Please show me the article saying it’s mostly profit.

Edit: I will help you out a bit. Here is one of the better explanations of the deal. It does say profit margins could approach 50% so my 15% is in error. Still that’s a increase of 1.8 billion not the 7 billion you claim.

https://skift.com/2019/04/10/delta-e...-2023-but-how/

Gooner 05-26-2019 05:46 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826508)
Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.6 billion from current revenue generated by the AMEX program. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.6 billion should up Delta’s profit 540 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit and the revenue increase from today is 3.6 billion not 7.
The one thing I do know is you are very intelligent. You did not post this by mistake. It was posted intentionally and you knew it was wildly incorrect to claim it was 10 times the improvements we are asking for in the contract. The other strange thing is that if the 10 times the contract cost statement were correct you suggest we will obtain 700 million in contractual improvements. I understand the opener was closer to 2 billion.

So we profit 7 billion on a deal with Amex revenue at 3.6 billion and sign a similar deal with them that increases to 7 billion in 2-3 years, right? But some how we can’t really expect the new 3.4 billion to go to profit? If so that means 3.4 billion goes to employees and fuel, sign me up. And we’d still profit 7 billion.

I know you are mainly disputing a small detail like not all the Amex money is profit, but depending on where you put it in the budget it actually could be, the benefits of being wildly profitable.

gzsg 05-26-2019 05:50 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826508)
Just to clarify but I think you know this. delta predicts up to 7 billion in revenue by 2023. That is a increase of 3.6 billion from current revenue generated by the AMEX program. Those numbers however are not profit. There are large costs associated with the program. Using a typical 15% return the 3.6 billion should up Delta’s profit 540 million dollars a year. That’s a massive increase but does not sound as good as your 7 billion number. Stating they will be making 7 billion is flat out incorrect. Revenue is not profit and the revenue increase from today is 3.6 billion not 7.
The one thing I do know is you are very intelligent. You did not post this by mistake. It was posted intentionally and you knew it was wildly incorrect to claim it was 10 times the improvements we are asking for in the contract.

Sailing

“Joe DeNardi, an analyst with Stifel, long has argued frequent flyer programs are the most profitable piece of every airline, with profit margins approaching 50 percent. Yet few airlines break out detail on their programs, with many viewing them as secret.”

Skift

What say you now Sailing?

I am more optimistic than most. To me all the stars are aligned for the Delta pilots and management to work hand in hand to complete this contract.

The gains to be made far exceed the cost of our well deserved gains.

American, United and Southwest are in complete disarray.

Let’s hope management chooses wisely.

gzsg 05-26-2019 05:57 AM

50% (and I believe it is 70% profit) of $7 Billion is $3.5 Billion in profits annually just from our American Express deal alone.

In my opinion we will see annual profits in excess of $10 Billion by 2023.

sailingfun 05-26-2019 06:02 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826523)
50% (and I believe it is 70% profit) of $7 Billion is $3.5 Billion in profits annually just from our American Express deal alone.

In my opinion we will see annual profits in excess of $10 Billion by 2023.

The strange thing is you only based on your original 7 billion number expect 700 million in contract improvements. 700 million is probably not a contract I would vote to ratify. It’s going to need to be closer to 1 billion.

sailingfun 05-26-2019 06:07 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826523)
50% (and I believe it is 70% profit) of $7 Billion is $3.5 Billion in profits annually just from our American Express deal alone.

In my opinion we will see annual profits in excess of $10 Billion by 2023.

Again you neglect that we currently earn 3.4 billion. They expect to improve that by 3.6 billion to total 7 billion. Several analyst question that number and asked Delta management for details which they declined to provide. Using the most optimistic numbers out there Delta would see a 1.8 billion increase in profit not the 7 billion you claim. Delta management also claimed we would already be making 10 billion a year. They were off a bit.

BobZ 05-26-2019 06:29 AM

Well ive never been an advocate for counting ones chickens......but we should all agree the economic outlook for delta over the term of this coming amendment is very positive.

And there shud be no horsetrading, but instead only improvements from the current positions.

notEnuf 05-26-2019 06:33 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826530)
Again you neglect that we currently earn 3.4 billion. They expect to improve that by 3.6 billion to total 7 billion. Several analyst question that number and asked Delta management for details which they declined to provide. Using the most optimistic numbers out there Delta would see a 1.8 billion increase in profit not the 7 billion you claim. Delta management also claimed we would already be making 10 billion a year. They were off a bit.

By your own number AMEX would pay for our opener. Disregard the operational gains that management predicts just through fleet renewal and up-gauging. Then there's the planned international growth "on our own metal" I keep hearing about. (I'm very skeptical of this, if they planned for it then they would ink a production balance deal today on Aeromexico and the mega JV over the Atlantic.)

notEnuf 05-26-2019 06:41 AM


Originally Posted by Buck Rogers (Post 2826505)
Yes, I would have. I would vote for TA1,(and I suggest almost all the other 2500 guys nearing retirement would too) because with no retro plan formulated, I (they)can't afford the "stand your ground" of turning down TA1 for a better TA2.....at some date in the future.

Viola.....a crappy contract comes to fruition, much to the angst of the more junior pilots, and they're left scratching their heads going, " who woulda thought that was gonna happen"?

A TA that was gonna fail 55%-45% will now pass by about 55%-45% because they can't stand the risk of a long drawn out re-negotiation possibly leading to the scenario I outlined.

Clear now?

Management will decide the timeline. If they want to do a quick deal it will have to be very good. On the other hand if they want a few years of cost advantage and get past the retiree hump potentially saving themselves more in retirement costs, then they will drag it out. The younger or mid-career pilots not giving you retro is a false narrative. The retro will be part of the total TA and will be negotiated as such. Personally the retro has to be 100% but who gets it will be negotiated.

notEnuf 05-26-2019 06:47 AM


Originally Posted by gzsg (Post 2826520)
Sailing

“Joe DeNardi, an analyst with Stifel, long has argued frequent flyer programs are the most profitable piece of every airline, with profit margins approaching 50 percent. Yet few airlines break out detail on their programs, with many viewing them as secret.”

Skift

What say you now Sailing?

I am more optimistic than most. To me all the stars are aligned for the Delta pilots and management to work hand in hand to complete this contract.

The gains to be made far exceed the cost of our well deserved gains.

American, United and Southwest are in complete disarray.

Let’s hope management chooses wisely.

DeNardi also wants Delta to spin off the Skymiles program to monetize it. This has been done at several international carriers. I think Delta will keep it and as evidence GOL, which Delta runs by proxy, is bringing their Smiles program back in house.

gzsg 05-26-2019 07:01 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 2826525)
The strange thing is you only based on your original 7 billion number expect 700 million in contract improvements. 700 million is probably not a contract I would vote to ratify. It’s going to need to be closer to 1 billion.

I’m not going to get into how accounting works with you and I’m certainly no expert.

Pilots costs don’t come 100% from profits.

Looks like we are on the same page, $1 Billion plus.

The long and the short of it is the money is there and then some.

Hats off to our management for the AMEX deal. Well played.

And while I’m rolling, the BOS expansion is very impressive and encouraging. Again, happy to be a part of that.


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