Nov/dec ae
 

Word on Street:

40 777As 70 330As and 46 350As

And this is not including the additional 350 deliveries announced yesterday.

Lots of movement coming. One of these A positions dropping to a pilot in their 40s is not too far off


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Those are great lookin numbers but since the big bid covered all know retirements and unplanned attrition through next May they seem a bit high.

They seems way too low to me.

Big surprise.

The triple 7 flying should have all been covered in the big bid unless they plan increased utilization or pilots leaving early are much higher than expected. We get 3 additional A330’s next year so that’s about 30 to 40 additional positions depending on routes. I have no idea on when the LATAM 350’s will enter service. If before summer they will need crews but I doubt we can get more than two or three flying by then. The 2 scheduled deliveries were also covered in the big bid.

The 777 utilization may be higher once all planes are back in service after the cabin mods.

Ok. Does anyone have any first hand info from a base roadshow?

What exactly are they saying about the 777? Sticking around? Incompatible with the 350 ...?

That should have been in the big bid.

What a ride

Don't believe anything until you see the AE memo. The word passed around the 737 school house was that management detests the 350 and they were all wishing we would order the 1967 Volkswagen Beetle with bluetooth and touchscreen navigation(737MAX) along with 787s.

If the price is right it seems detesting has little to do with it.

Shack! This deal made good business sense.. it doesn’t validate the fact that Delta loves the 350.

Then we have EB and JG saying they’re happy with it...who knows

These will be positions for summer 2020. 7 330s coming next year instead of 3. Plus retirements next year on all WBs make those numbers look realistic.

Shocking that the 73 guys would pass a rumor of more 73s. We can only hope this isn’t true. :D

As for the 350. At different times I’ve heard network, marketing, and flight ops all say they liked the 350 and also heard them say they are disappointed in it. I guess we will see what happens.

What street is that? Source? For one of those positions to go to a pilot in their 40s, the base would have to be NYC. Nobody wants to be junior on reserve in NYC.

You never know. There’ll always be guys chasing the pay rate.

I’m 48, hired in 2000. Still 3500 numbers away from the bottom A330 A in NYC. I just escaped NYC in June of this year on the A320.

If it hits guys in their 40s on the Nov/Dec bid, I’ll be surprised, but you never know.

I think he was referring to further down the road. Those hired young in early 2014 will hold WB capt in their 40s no problem.

Remember this is how we work as a company:

A) whatever we are doing is righteous and brilliant, until we change it

B) whatever our vendors are doing is frustrating and disappointing

SLC220A just went to a guy just past his fifth anniversary. I assume as these mega AE's continue, that will just keep falling. If that's the case, I and a lot of other guys will still solidly be in our 30's when we're able to upgrade. Heck, there will be some captains still in their 20's soon.

I don't know what that means for WB captains, but I imagine it won't be too long before we see some in their 30's.

Already happened. ATLM88A went to several in 20s couple years ago. There was an NYC320A at 28 or 29. 88 young guns later got displaced. 320 one I'm not sure. You're right, it will happen again soon. While Delta won't get to the level of carriers like Emirates and Qatar that have 380 and 777 Captains in their 20s, age demographics will change significantly over the next few years

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"Shocking that the 73 guys would pass a rumor of more 73s."

Kind of reminds me of past rumors:

1. They are going to "glass" the 727 and keep them flying, the glass instruments were said to be sitting in a hangar in ATL.
2. The L-1011 is going to be used for a new Delta cargo operation.
3. The MD-11 is going to be used for a new Delta cargo operation.
4. They are going to put "Boeing NG "glass" into the 757/767, the vendor has already been chosen.
5. They are going to reopen DFW as a hub and base the A220 and 73N as a Latin America hub.

I'm sure there are more...but "UNTIL it is a REAL thing, it ain't a thing at all".

In a possibly related matter, several 20 and 30 year olds complained about their schedules as junior captains. :D

Maddog glass cockpit. My favorite that I was rooting for was 717 engines and cockpits on DC-9s

Ok. I thought he was saying this bid. In two or three years, I don’t doubt 40 somethings will be holding the heavies. Fun times, indeed.

That’s how you could tell they were ready.


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Let's not forget the Sal Island hub to help us take over Africa. That was the rumour du jour around 2008-9 timeframe.

Precisely. Exactly what I was referring to

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A 25 year old hired in March of ‘14 will have a career like few have had in recent memory. If they wanted it they could’ve held NYC 88a around 1.5 years into their career, Detroit or Atlanta just a year later and they would not have been displaced if they were on the 717 or ATL88. They will be 50% in the company by 2022 and probably WB captains by the age of 35. Assuming no change in the retirement age, no change in 2 pilot operations, and good health that’s 30 years flying in the left seat of a WB. Pretty damned impressive.

That's the thing about this career. It's all luck and timing when one gets hired. If that same 25 year old was hired now, they'd have a vastly different (albeit still good) career. And if that same guy was hired in 2000 at 25, we all know how that went.

Be the right age, at the right time, in the right place--my advice to people thinking about starting an airline career.

There will be young narrow body A’s again in the near future. I disagree with the wide body though. There will be senior wb B’s that just transfer seats before the junior guys get there.

I’m thinking there’s a good bit of pent up demand for wide body Captain by a large number of senior wide body fo’s. I know I’ve had at least a few tell me they’re skipping narrow body captain to go straight to the left seat of a heavy.

That may push the junior captain age up a bit.

So was a 73N base in Guam.

I was 29 when I was hired in late 2000. I have no complaints, but my career will be worth less than a third, financially, than a guy or girl hired at 29 in 2007-2008, or even 2014-2015. 80K clamp, how old were you when you were hired?

I’ll retire in the top 200, if I go to 65 (I’m trying to be done by 60) but I don’t cross inside 1000 until the last year or two.

Crappy timing notwithstanding, it’s been a privilege and honor to be a part of this pilot group. I wouldn’t do anything differently.

Agreed. Plus there are a lot of pilots who never want to fly International that are senior to them.

While impressive there are less than 100 of them. I would guess maybe 60 would be a realistic number.

You made me look. Junior 350A DTW is 3000 seniority.

In 10 years I'll be 47 at seniority 3000.

Hopefully we still have plenty of WB around.

I’m winning that game of UNO. :p:D:D

Bhahaha I knew you would. 44?

Usta be DC-8 F/O's waited and went to DC-8 A. Worst captains ever. 0 social skills. I know, its in the way back, but the premise remains the same, the leopard does not change it's stripes.

Currently, the junior WB captain (not counting 7ER) sits at about 25% of the total list. Including ER, it's at over 55%. Based purely on scheduled retirements, I'll hit that percentage by the time I'm in my early 40's. Accounting for early retirements, probably before I'm 40. There are 430ish guys senior to me that are younger than me, so with a lot of assumptions made about fleet makeup 10, 15, 20 years from now, it could be like you say, it could be a lot more.