MEC Brief
 

Originally Posted by MEC Brief 19-08
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December 12, 2019
19-08
The Perfect Storm: The Bomb Cyclone Returns
Last September, we published MEC Brief 19-04 Delta's Summer of 2019: The Perfect Storm, a postmortem accounting of the varied layers of operational difficulties. The article investigated the cause of last summer's problems, which led to a 100% increase in pilot overtime flying. This overtime was a record, and it was later revealed to have ultimately contributed to significantly higher labor costs in the third quarter. More important than the financial cost was the human stress incurred by pilots who stepped up to do the heavy lifting in support of flying operations. The pace was simply grueling. This was acknowledged by Flight Operations SVP Captain Jim Graham in an employee memo when he stated, "Quite frankly, we ran the operation hotter than expected this summer, and we know you felt that pressure."

On August 30, CEO Ed Bastian wrote in a memo to employees, "We want to continue hearing your feedback and ideas on what we can fix and investments that can be made." As career-long stakeholders with a keen interest in Delta's success, and knowing full well that repeating the pace of summer 2019 would be unsustainable, ALPA offered the following solutions for Delta’s operational shortcomings:
Aggressively Hire More Pilots: Our calculations determined that 1,000 pilots need to be in a training class by March 2020 to have an adequate buffer going into next summer.
More Frequent Advance Entitlements (AE): Delta operates the most extensive fleet mix of any airline in the U.S. Forecasting a 365-day AE must be pin-point accurate to avoid leaving categories unbalanced at the end of the AE conversion window. More frequent AEs will allow for the finer tuning of staffing and easier stabilization of categories.
Six weeks after the postmortem was published, Delta announced in an All Pilots Memo they planned to hire 900 pilots before the summer 2020 flying season and a total of 1,340 in 2020. Despite the numbers the Company presented in the memo, we remain deeply concerned that our pilots and the rest of the workforce will face a repeat of the demands of summer 2019.

As pilots, a critical CRM skill we perfect is the ability to recognize threats and select the appropriate mitigating strategies to neutralize them. These threats come in many different forms – from the relatively benign, such as missing meals, to the significant such as an uncontained engine failure. Just like some threats can impact any given flight, the same applies to Delta’s operational plan. We believe there are threats to Delta’s ability to begin next summer with an adequate number of pilots. These threats will undoubtedly hinder Delta’s ability to mitigate and avoid the exhausting experience of last summer.

Our Continuing Concerns
The pace has not let up. Typically, after Labor Day, Delta enters the shoulder season - a period where pilots can collectively catch their breath. That much-needed respite has not occurred this year, and the Company continues to run the operation hot - relying on overtime flying to execute its schedule.
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September 2019 saw 6,454 Green Slip periods compared to 4,040 in September 2018. October 2019 continued trending in the wrong direction with 8,172 Green Slips, which was more than 100% above last year's October number of 4,004. This November was no different with 5,854 Green Slip periods – a 40% increase from November 2018.

The historical data for Delta’s Green Slip periods goes back 30 years and all three fall months set all-time records. Overall, Delta’s streak of consecutive record Green Slip months now stretches back seven months to last May.

Manning Issues - The December 717 Bid. Poor planning for the December bids for ATL and LAX B717 pilots led to a significant staffing issue that left an unbalance of scheduled flying between the two bases. The problem became magnified when marketing added even more flying for the B717 over the coming holiday period after the bids had already closed. How will Delta solve this issue? Again, with voluntary, and most likely record-setting, pilot overtime.

The Pilot Training Pipeline. Once a pilot applicant is hired, it takes two weeks to complete the indoctrination class. Following that class, there is typically a one- to two-week homestretch before the pilot starts simulator training, which usually lasts a month. The last step is the Operational Experience (OE), which takes 10 to 14 days or more. Only when this training is complete can a pilot produce on the line.

Summer flying begins on June 1, 2020. To ensure a new hire will be ready to fly the line on that date, that pilot must be hired and in class no later than March 15. Historically, after June 1, a significant number of seniority list simulator instructors transition to line flying to help cover the additional flying. This practice makes more pilots available for line operations, but training slows due to a smaller instructor population teaching in the simulators.

Is Delta achieving its staffing goals? To reach its goal of hiring 900 pilots for the start of summer 2020, Delta will need to train an average of 184 pilots every four weeks. To have the same number of pilots on the property as the grueling summer of 2019, which represents no improvement, Delta would need to hire 600 additional pilots. That requires an average of 109 pilots every four weeks. Since the end of August, the Company has hired a total of 165 pilots, which equates to just 41 pilots every four weeks.

Line Check Pilots (LCP) Availability. Just as line pilots are excited about the movement created by retirements and the benefits that progress brings, so are Line Check Pilots. As LCPs retire from top-paying aircraft, other LCPs will leave their current positions and upgrade to larger, higher-paying aircraft. Replacing an LCP takes many months and leaves a shortage of available pilots to provide OE training. The resulting deficit of LCPs has the potential to introduce a significant bottleneck in the training pipeline.

Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt conceived the Theory of Constraints and introduced it to the world in his 1984 bestselling novel, "The Goal." The Theory of Constraints holds that every process has at least one constraint, or bottleneck, and focusing improvement efforts on that constraint is the quickest and most effective path to improved performance and profitability.

We have outlined numerous constraints that may well negatively impact the Company’s productivity and profitability. Delta has called on pilots to continue to operate at redline for seven straight months, and we have professionally and safely stepped up and answered that call. However, maintaining that pace into next summer is not a realistic or responsible approach. Pilots are not machines in a factory; we are the human beings that operate complex machines filled with hundreds of passengers – your family members and friends. Machines and pilots alike cannot be run at redline indefinitely.

Controlling costs is essential. A myopic focus on costs without considering the interconnection they have with the intricacies of the operation can have implications on many levels. To keep Delta in the position of operational excellence in the airline industry, management must act to alleviate the operational threats and constraints that have been outlined. The focus needs to be placed on restoring staffing to maintain a robust pilot group that continues to go above and beyond to be brand ambassadors. Running pilots at redline takes away the tools pilots need to properly promote our industry-leading product and complete Delta’s operational plans.

This MEC Brief is a product of the Delta MEC Communications Committee
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Air Line Pilots Association, International
ALPA - Advancing Aviation Safety and Security since 1931

Why does the MEC Admin continue to wage a war against Greenslips? I could understand if there were record Inverse Assignments and Delta was canceling flights due to staffing but to complain about voluntary flying for double pay is strange.

As far as the 717 it's a flex fleet and helping to alleviate 321 NEO delays

Delta is the biggest it's ever been in it's history. With record fleet transformation happening. On the cusp of record hiring followed by record retirements. There is and will continue to be record Greenslips.

These are great times for Delta pilots. The opportunity to build life changing wealth looks to be plentiful.

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It sounds like they are concerned about that little issue of safety.

I think the massive increase in fatigue calls is the concern.

I forgot to mention, which I’m not sure why it would need to be spelled out but GSs don’t just mean voluntary flying for double pay.

GSs mean lack of staffing. Lack of staffing means no ability to drop trips and adjust schedule. Lack of staffing means high ALVs. High “optimized” ALVs means guys are working harder and getting fatigued. Lack of staffing means reroutes to cover flying that would normally be covered by a reserve. I can keep going but I certainly hope you get the point.

We took a huge hit in QoL this summer. So instead of asking why is the union waging a war against green slips, maybe we should be asking why you and the company are waging a war against our QoL?

Dear MEC,
-Bullet points would be fine.
-Pilots are smart.
-Pilots are busy.

I don’t think this is a war on green slips. Greenslip data obviously shows that time and time again the 14,000+ of us are bailing them out of a horrible staffing situation that they are in.

Then the article goes on to point out what they said they were going to do to alleviate the problem for summer 2020 vs. what they are actually doing. Accountability maybe?

This isn’t going to get better in the next five years.

Awesome post!!

Interesting when you contrast this with the last paragraph of PB’s latest fatigue reporting memo. Be careful picking up GS because you might increase your fatigue. Or is the real problem that they have become dependent on the GS but the fatigue reports are making the company look bad and has caught the eye of the FAA. (and probably some investigative journalist) Reading that memo I was anticipating the “but...” And then without fail, the last paragraph. :rolleyes:

Green slips reduce the amount of staffing needed during high demand months. If they company relies on GSs to get through during the busy months, they they don't need to increase the pilot count - less Captain positions needed, less FOs needed. Everyone get stuck at a lower rung on the ladder.

While I rarely fly GS I hope you acknowledge that premium pay duty periods actually do go into the contractual staffing formula?

Also I honestly don't know what the ideal staffing approach is. I can tell you that in overmanned categories I've heard pilots complain "ain't nuttin' in open time!" Company cannot win with some guys. Staffing such that zero GS are passed out even in the busy summer months is never going to happen, nor should it.

On the other hand last summer was a bit extreme.

I can't imagine how someone reads this letter and takes it to mean that the MEC is waging a "war on greenslips."

The only way to deduce that from the letter is to have preconceived notions about the MEC, which most here would agree are not at all accurate.

The chart wasn't complaining about greenslips. Those who feel motivated enough to flying for double pay may do so. There was plenty of it this year and there will be even more next year because the staffing is in the toilet and the numbers show that the staffing on many fleets is in an unrecoverable situation between now and the summer schedule. Re-routes will continue to be out of control.

The point that the letter was emphasizing, which is abundantly obvious, is that such inadequate staffing is detrimental to QOL.

People 50% and below are now often unable to drop/trade trips. A portion of what little vacation people with only a few years longevity have ends up being used for IVDs to get time off for important things in their life. Sure, being junior is what it is, but plenty of categories this year weren't even staffed well enough for anyone to drop anything even on the 20th of the prior month. That is not acceptable.

The improvement in our C2020 MEC's mentality and negotiation stance over C2015 is night and day better.

Exactly. It is just about impossible to have a situation where there is very much open time and adequate reserve coverage to swap and drop sans the first couple PCS runs. This wasn’t true prior to the ability of pilots to exceed the PU limit via the swap board. I haven’t heard much talk about limiting the SB though.. (Could be wrong of course)

Just to address a few things that have been stated. You can’t have high ALV’s all year even with short staffing as the TLV forces a lower ALV to bring down the TLV. You could have a very stable ALV all year, but that isn’t realistically going to happen with the way our capacity increases in the summer.

GS do help out on manning short term. GS do force an increase in the staffing formula so you will see an increase in pilots required down the road after a year like this.

I honestly don’t get too would up about this as long as they are not IA’s. Being hired in the 90’s, I have seen this play out more times than not during that time. Exceptions of course would be when capacity was cut due to 9/11 and the Great Recession etc.

FWIW, I do not do a ton of GS. But when I do, they typically increase my QOL. I normally fly about 80, but when they are handing them out, it allows me to fly closer to 75 and pick up an easy 2 day. Many times that also allows me to fly low the next month.

Since GS are voluntary, any sort of fatigue issue is self induced. We have many guys who fly high hours off the Swap Board that exceed days worked by pilots who GS. Is that something we should look at as well? Is flying a 100 straight time not fatiguing?

I think we all know what is partially behind this memo.

I don't see this as a war, it's more both parties are starting realize a change needs to occur or next summer will be much worse. I personally believe even if they can get 1000 pilots trained by March they will still have a "hot" summer operation.

They have 1000's of guys who have been flying Delta lift at the regionals with more than enough experience. This is who could fill the void and train quickly and be less of a strain on the training department than OAL hires. There is a reason for American and United flows.

Delta will have to come up with their own flow synonym. Let's call it Regional Percolation. News is management is coming back to the table with Endeavor Air about this very topic next week.

No matter where the pilots come from the training footprint is essentially the same. I mean maybe a straight mil guy or corporate needs a few more hours of OE to adjust to airline ops but that's about it. We could sign a flow agreement tomorrow and that wouldn't do a thing to solve our manning issues.

Flows at American and United get the same training as off the street hires. I have no knowledge about UAL but American is not happy with their flow program.
We don’t need pilots trained by 1 Mar. We need them online by 1 Jun and even pilots trained well into July help.

Not to speak badly about you, but you haven't got a clue about training. It doesnt matter who they have been flying for the initial training is always the same footprint. Any person with any airline experience will do better in IOE than the pure military/ Corporate guys. But that's just because they already know the swing of 121 ops. Knowing the "delta" system as you pit it does next to nothing as the delta system is no different than United, American, or any other 121 airline.

AA is the only one with a true flow as UAL just has preferential hiring with their regionals. They each have them so they can lock pilots into the regional airline and control the regional staffing. Think of it as a carrot on a stick.

Summer schedule starts halfway through May and then full-on in the first week on June.

Any new hire that will help for the entire summer needs to be in indoc 8 weeks from now.

They're not gonna fit 900 new hires in between today, December 13, and 8 weeks from now. :p

By June/July the rolling thunder crowd will have decimated reserve coverage in many categories, right down to zero by the second week of each month just as happened this summer.

UNABLE TO CVR DUE STAFFING.

Unfortunately flights were canceled this summer. Others were delayed 20+ hours to the next day and made the news.

This is the best any airline has ever done.

There's just no need to skimp on having reserves ready to cover stuff in the busy season.

$6,000,000,000 profit = add some reserve pilots and put UAL, AMR and the rest to shame.

Would be nice if they just said they are concerned about safety instead of hyper focusing on greenslips throughout en excessively long email.

It’s as if they forgot that greenslips are optional.

June-Aug, sure. Sept-Dec? Sept and Oct were very telling at how understaffed we are.

Yes, I know it's in the staffing formula, but it's a rolling 12 month average, so the couple of months of high flying won't change the staffing much. Second, we are always "overstaffed" per the staffing formula. I believe Sailing has said many times, if the airline was staffed at that formula it would grind to a halt.

What needs to be updated is the "required reserves" formula lol.

So there's no difference in us poaching OO or CP pilots? How's that work for their staffing?

I know, I think all regionals should go away and those pilots should join mainline, but the numbers don't add up according to the guys on the 4th floor.

True.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this but I think the timing of the letter (coming right after the negotiations update stating it won't be done by the new year) is important. It sounds like Dalpa is honoring the 1st rule of fight club and informing us that we are sometimes our own worst enemy.

Fly the contract. Fly rested. Fly safe!

I thought it was the second rule of Fight Club...

This all results from our flexibility to do marketing's bidding. We will always be incorrectly staffed when we are reacting to the markets short term changes. This is actually a good thing. More frequent AEs would go a long way toward getting it closer to right. The costs will be incurred either in GS/IA or in training. I prefer GSs but to rely as heavily on them as was done last summer is unsustainable.

When we switched to monthly AEs at Northwest it was great for us, but way better for management. Marketing changes their mind weekly and this practice allowed them to staff much more accurately.

Having one huge AE annually is like performing brain surgery with an axe.

Another excellent update out today on extensions. I knew mgmt was an outlier on the industry on extensions, but holy crap.

Btw... war on greenslips? Talk about a total lack of SA and just political hackers.

Now the update on extensions was a much better MEC Brief. Reasonable, concise, analytical and data driven. Much much better than the War on Greenslips rant. Would of been much better off with a detailed analysis on staffing trends, the optimizer, reroutes, and inverse assignment data.

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* Bullet points = Good

* That MEC note = Word Salad (bad)

*Greenslips = Good.

*Involuntary inverse assignments = Double plus bad. Mostly unheard of, too.

The email used GS as a datapoint for staffing. As in, this is the amount of flying that had to be covered outside of PBS, PCS, and reserve coverage vs the year prior. Most of the email talked about staffing, fatigue, training constraints, and the company having admitted to pushing too hard this summer but not making enough of an effort to fix it since. Hardly a war on GS, but continue to double down.

Spot on

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Just because you dont like the data they provided with the green slip memo doesn't mean it was not "Reasonable, concise, analytical and data driven." :rolleyes:

Spot on!

I can tell Trip7 places a lot of personal importance in his wealth. Many of his past posts reveal his psyche. Whether it's banter about his stock market/real estate moves, diversification of retirement income, jubilation in maximizing GS and profit sharing, side hustles, upgrading fast, etc. I'd peg him as a guy who chases money above all. Nothing wrong with that, we all like makin money. Knowing his mindset, I get why he'd lash out at the MEC folks for using GS periods as a data point for staffing. Being understaffed to the point we've been has provided many pilots like him opportunities to to "make hay while the sun is shining". For those with flexibility to work "overtime" ad nauseam, especially those not actively raising a family, what an opportunity. As long as we're not inverse assigning, who care$ right?🤑

But realize a lot of pilots value their time off more than overtime money. Steve Dickson's announcement we'd "tap the brakes" on hiring in late 2018 caused short sighted short staffing, and the MEC rationally uses GS periods as a data point to indicate this. Instead of a summer 2019 bubble, followed by a normal fall/winter, it appears indefinite low staffing. Indefinite levels of high reserve utilization, lack of schedule flexibility, high block hours per pilot, reroutes, and yes GS $$$. War on GS is actually a War on Indefinite Min Staffing. Months like this June/July shouldn't be the new norm, we are out of balance.

We wouldn't have a staffing crisis now that requires a PWA fix, would we? How convenient. No to any and all productivity gives because that translates to QOL gives. These things don't happen in a vacuum, this staffing issue is part of the grand design. Oops again, we need your help. Seen it before. The answer is NO.

IMO we are gonna be short staffed until after I retire.......4 quarter 2023........unless I win the lottery!:D

Denny

If you win the lottery we won’t be short staffed anymore?! [emoji1787]

You know you'd stay even if you won the lottery. You'd have to because we'll still be short staffed!! :D

Lol! After the money was in the bank I’d be outta here so fast it’d make your head spin!:D Not that I don’t like my job (and especially the people I work with) but...

Denny