This is pretty much the gospel....according to Scoop....and he pretty much dead on nutz nails it. NO gives. Dust needs to settle. Let's see where we are at around end of Sept.
Thanks for the post Scoop.

What you don't seem to be getting is most of us are NOT saying "full pay to the last day." We are advocating a more slow and considered approach to the current problem. Some kind of relief may eventually be necessary but the problem needs to be analyzed right now and not pulling a Nancy Pelosi and saying we need to pass it so we can find out what's in it. The company needs to share future revenue projections with us. Not sure I see this happening.....

Denny

They shared through the end of the year in the last town hall meeting. Don’t remember exactly but 30% 3Q an 50% 4Q sticks in my mind.

The true picture won't be painted until a month or two from now with future bookings


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Uh, can't speak for lawyers, but my wife is an MD. Doctors have been getting reamed for years. Medicare and Medicaid paperwork and reimbursements get worse every year. It's to the point that several of her colleagues with independent practices don't take those two programs at all. Look up OB liability rates. It's a miracle there are OBs at all.

Oh yes, doctors have had their "profession" cheapened for decades. Sorry that interferes with the narrative you are peddling. I flew an A321 the other day from BOS-DTW. 12 passengers. You talk about "taking a stand." Against what? It is true we have a revenue crisis.... but therefore we have a balance sheet crisis.

I'm not advocating anything other than what our MEC recommends, including no reduction in the ALV for now, since the company played their shenanigans post LOA 20-01. (I think the C16 update was an exceptional summary). But false bravado will do just as little as the company's bizarre obsession with "optics" and a non union FA group.

I am not willing to take a paycut in my last few years to save the job of a guy with 20-30 left...sorry..I have had enough punches to the face in my 30 years...the junior guys can take one now.. After the dust clears they will have great careers. With amazing advancement opportunities.

Got my asbestos suit on. so flame away.

Spanker

What revenue projections? There are none right now, other than random guesses. The only thing we know is they will be WAY lower for quite a while. You think they are bluffing? We're about to "V-shape recover" like it wasn't no thang?

You disagree with me saying that POV (of "nothing we do will provide more than a couple days of liquidity) is fatalistic nonsense? That BS fuzzy math only applies in today's near zero revenue environment. I did say revenue woud come back dramatically, but then said even double, triple or quadrouple revenue gains would still be a small fraction of previous revenue. We are bleeding cash fast and the only payoff for "winding the clock" (until 10-01-2020 apparently) is the ALV between now and then.

ALV reductions in a returning revenue environment, but one that is WAY woer than before, will buy us much more time than the insane out of context barvado nonsense of "only 3-4 days remaining" being used now.

Massive revenue gains are coming. Absolutely massive percentage gains over today. Earth shattering percentage gains. The stuff of legend (if viewed out of context in a vacuum). Revenue gains the likes of which this industry has never seen before during the best of times. And they won't be anywhere near enough to not only avoid furloughs, but for the company to remain in existance, unless the industry returns to close to where it was very, very quickly or someone else goes away first. We need every day of time remaining we can get instead of playing paycheck to paycheck smallball. I agree that we need to do SIL's and early outs, otherwise our leadership has no plan and there's nothing we can do.

But one pilot one vote. See you on the other side with the AVL savings or at the long lines at the job fares as everyone else says "thanks DL guys for taking one for the profession." The occasional free beer will more than make up for the eradication of our seniority list. I am financially prepared for any ALV reduction as well as full ALV til the last day and doing resumes and buying a new suit and starting over at year one step one somewhere else. But that's a really dumb gamble to take to bank 20 hours a month til this is sorted out.

But my MEC speaks for me, even if I disagree. We want to roll the dice so let's roll them.

That is a completely fair position. What about pilots with 15 years left? I haven't looked at your post history, but it would be logical to assume that you are against the "plus up" component of the MBCBP as well. Every pilot is responsible for their own retirement and has an obligation to play the hand they are dealt.

Early retirement, SILs, MLOA and partial or full month KLOAs are individual options that could mitigate furloughs without imposing lower ALV on everyone. There are plenty of options DAPLA has made available to Delta. We can make a collective decision offering lower ALVs after the bailout, but ultimately Delta decides what size of pilot group makes sense for the airline. That decision will be heavily influenced by projections on air travel recovery relative to training capacity. If the company can train at a pace matching travel recovery, expect furloughs in lieu of reduced ALV. If the company expects a recovery in demand faster than they can train, expect lower ALV as an accumulator of pilots ready for growth.

A decade or two from now, we will have pilots whining they couldn't prepare for retirement because of Wuhan Virus. Anyone who resembles that remark, please take action now, so you don't feel compelled to whine. Learn from the DZers and take action now. Cutting expenses or selling a few toys and investing that money takes discipline and emotional maturity, but you will thank yourself at 65.

Rolling the dice is a gamble it assumes a chance at winning. That is a very poor analogy. Management is doing its calculations and their decision is the gamble. We have no ability to control the course of the business. If bankruptcy is the best case scenario in their minds there is absolutely nothing you can do. The same for their use of SILs and wether or not they offer early outs. Your push is way too premature and I would only consider it if a judge was presiding over the new “agreement.”

No judge (if it gets to that point) is going to impose lower ALV's. If we are in BK the company will not only not ask for lower ALV's they will want to eliminate the upper limit on ALV's entirely. Fly to the FAR's and let the ALV rise as much as possible. How quickly we forget that higher ALV's are a QOL concession. The fairly recent +1 hour increase was considered a significant concession. Now all the sudden high ALV's are pro pilot.

The best stratedgy is to avoid not just Ch 11 but Ch 7, both of which are possibilities, while positioning the airline to be the one that is most capabile of qickly recovering on the other side of this. We are hemmoraging cash and saving cash means buying time.This could easily come down to days or weeks remaining to either trigger making the difference.

That said, the company has not shown an adequate plan with their SIL shenanigans as well as putting early outs on the back burner while our competition smokes us with both. Every day of time we save could easily make the difference. We don't have to outrun the bear, we only have to run faster than the slowest competitor. Right now we're barely walking away while everyone else is at least jogging because leadership is more scared of a unionized FA group (which all our competitors have already) than they are the biggest crisis the industry has every seen. As long as that remains the case, full ALV til the last day then because they clearly don't have an adequate plan.