Airline Pilot Central Forums - Peach Corps Gate Agents?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NuGuy (Post 3060750)

Sure you can.SWAs operations lost money for years while they rode the profits of their fuel hedges.

Operations had a minus sign, but they were way in the black when they marked to market their hedges.

I would have to take a look at their statements to be sure, but I think they were still generating cash from operations when fuel hedging was the key to their profitability. If this turns out to not be the case, you may have found a loop hole.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 3060747)

AUP09,

I just wanted to add my thanks to you for providing your input. It's educational to me and greatly appreciated.

Denny

Edit: Now....anything you can say about an ERP? :)

Thank you for the kind words. Just trying to provide perspective.

Nothing I can share about the ERP, unfortunately.

By the way, Boston Legal is one of my favorite shows.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AUP09 (Post 3060744)

I don't understand how your Amazon example proves your point. Amazon is cash positive and unprofitable. That's exactly what we are trying to be (short term). If Amazon was cash negative and unprofitable they would not exist today.

ummmmm, Amazon is profitable. Do you know what you are talking about? Quit trying to lead thirsty people to a mirage.

https://www.geekwire.com/2019/true-a...loud-windfall/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fredturbo (Post 3060739)

sorry, there is a balance. Of course you can be cash flow positive without being profitable. That metric has allowed me to cash in on Amazon with their massive growth and almost zero profitability over the past 20 years. No sh1t. The airlines are different, junior. They depend upon massive employee and customer goodwill which a company like amazon doesn’t have or need.
One of the big differences is the proclaimed “Delta Difference.” Despite what you claimed a few posts ago “The reservation issues discussed are few are far between” regarding services one offs, the High Value Customers are generally ****ed off. https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delt...al-impact.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fredturbo (Post 3060761)

ummmmm, Amazon is profitable. Do you know what you are talking about? Quit trying to lead thirsty people to a mirage.

https://www.geekwire.com/2019/true-a...loud-windfall/

Yeah I know you said "almost" the first time but seriously you are being ridiculous. We should appreciate different points of view and additional information instead of fighting like kids about everything. This forum would be much more tolerable if everyone learned how to discuss things respectfully.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fredturbo (Post 3060761)

ummmmm, Amazon is profitable. Do you know what you are talking about? Quit trying to lead thirsty people to a mirage.

https://www.geekwire.com/2019/true-a...loud-windfall/

Wow. You wrote this: "sorry, there is a balance. Of course you can be cash flow positive without being profitable. That metric has allowed me to cash in on Amazon with their massive growth and almost zero profitability over the past 20 years."

In your text you point out two things:
1) cash flow positive
2) not profitable (without being profitable)

To which I replied, "I don't understand how your Amazon example proves your point. Amazon is cash positive and unprofitable. That's exactly what we are trying to be (short term). If Amazon was cash negative and unprofitable they would not exist today."

So, again, I don't understand why you are talking about Amazon. They are cash positive. We want to be cash positive. We cannot be profitable without being cash positive first. There is no balancing of the two.

What is your point?

Quote:

Originally Posted by AUP09 (Post 3060729)

I think the plan has been mischaracterized. We're not shrinking to profitability, we're shrinking to conserve cash. It's an important nuance. In the current environment there is no way to generate a profit.

So, there aren't any models, per se. There is real booking data and it is supplemented by qualitative analysis. This is definitely not a COVID-19 case/death model situation where garbage is being put into it, some made up algorithms are being applied, and then a shiny turd pops out on the end that later has to be smushed because it was way too big. Anyway, the booking data is showing that there are glimmers of hope, but there is no broad change in demand at this time. Yes, you read some news stories, or see anecdotes posted on Facebook, here, and elsewhere, but that's all they really are right now, anecdotes.

Delta has actually never been #1 in the US in terms of size. It's a common misconception that is pervasive in the company. We are #1 for some revenue and yield related metrics and that matters more than being the biggest.

You didn't answer me about the bridge; when are what are you deterministic variable(s) that will trigger the "recovery mode" of DAL?

You have not addressed the real angst that is ground swelling in the HVC customers.

About the vibe of Americans. I don't do facebook, twitter etc. I just happen to be out here looking at my state of 19 million and see that we are pretty much moving on with life. It started before it was "official" to do so. Maybe you need to look at some ground truth data outside of facebook, twitter and whatever other social media pulls you analyze daily.

A week ago you guys published that booking data was down. That's been the mantra thrown at us for weeks now in preparation for the great culling. So what is it? Down? Up? Looks to me like its starting to trend upwards. Be careful not to cut too deep seeking "cash flow +". Also, why can't we sell more stock to help our cash flow problem? You haven't addressed that either. BTW Venezuela is "cash flow +" and their economy is a basket case. It's not the end all here.

I never said DAL was #1 in domestic market. I have said I am surprised we are not trying to BE #1 in the domestic market and that this "crisis" might give us a chance to make moves on markets we normally couldn't compete in - fortune favors the bold kinda thing....

Qualitative analysis. That's soft data man and is totally subjective. That's my issue. It's a WAG you guys are making. My qualitative WAG is if you miss the window on the recovery entry its gone....we are going to be the one left standing when the music stops. You guys are the ones who talked about "your models" - not me.

I get the FUD. You need concessions from us. I also get how it's directed back up at the Mnuchin and the .gov. A little FUD grenade tossed their way during an election year might bring about more favorable terms for .gov loans. Totally understand the play.

Thanks Chazz for the cash flow definition, I'm familiar with cash flow, but appreciated none-the-less

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drum (Post 3060832)

You didn't answer me about the bridge; when are what are you deterministic variable(s) that will trigger the "recovery mode" of DAL?

You have not addressed the real angst that is ground swelling in the HVC customers.

About the vibe of Americans. I don't do facebook, twitter etc. I just happen to be out here looking at my state of 19 million and see that we are pretty much moving on with life. It started before it was "official" to do so. Maybe you need to look at some ground truth data outside of facebook, twitter and whatever other social media pulls you analyze daily.

A week ago you guys published that booking data was down. That's been the mantra thrown at us for weeks now in preparation for the great culling. So what is it? Down? Up? Looks to me like its starting to trend upwards. Be careful not to cut too deep seeking "cash flow +". Also, why can't we sell more stock to help our cash flow problem? You haven't addressed that either. BTW Venezuela is "cash flow +" and their economy is a basket case. It's not the end all here.

I never said DAL was #1 in domestic market. I have said I am surprised we are not trying to BE #1 in the domestic market and that this "crisis" might give us a chance to make moves on markets we normally couldn't compete in - fortune favors the bold kinda thing....

Qualitative analysis. That's soft data man and is totally subjective. That's my issue. It's a WAG you guys are making. My qualitative WAG is if you miss the window on the recovery entry its gone....we are going to be the one left standing when the music stops. You guys are the ones who talked about "your models" - not me.

I get the FUD. You need concessions from us. I also get how it's directed back up at the Mnuchin and the .gov. A little FUD grenade tossed their way during an election year might bring about more favorable terms for .gov loans. Totally understand the play.

Chazz, I know what cash flow is all about. Thanks though for the investopedia description.

Um, I wasn't talking to you, I was answering someone else's question. But on that topic, a new stock offering would not solve an Operating Cash Flow problem.

I get your concerns and wouldn't say they aren't valid, but I hope our company mgmt isn't using any social media/forum as a gauge in this situation. If these issues are still occurring in a month from now then I would start to worry, but I think it's a bit early to be throwing stones.

Can we all try to listen more and throw a little less shade?
https://media.giphy.com/media/fYfh8D...K5Cr/giphy.gif

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChazzMMichaels (Post 3060850)

Can we all try to listen more and throw a little less shade?
https://media.giphy.com/media/fYfh8D...K5Cr/giphy.gif

Chazz, you’re my spirit animal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChazzMMichaels (Post 3060850)

Um, I wasn't talking to you, I was answering someone else's question. But on that topic, a new stock offering would not solve an Operating Cash Flow problem.

Actually my friend issuing stock is absolutely a way to help with cash flow. The only case it generally doesn't is stock splits. We are nowhere near that territory. I see how you thru in the "operating". That's not what we have been discussing here.

Look at any cash flow statement you will see a line for "issuance of common stock" or the like. It is most definitely a way to increase cash flow.

As far as using what we write here to run the company? I dunno, I don't think so - duh. But he did come on here so I am engaging. Its rare we get someone outside our bubble. Opinions are just that. Sort them the way you want or disregard altogether. Hasn't stopped you right? And it shouldn't. We should all be able to discuss the goings on of our employer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drum (Post 3060832)

Becoming cash positive is the trigger. Once we are cash positive we can switch to recovery mode.

The data we have shows there is no swelling. Are there problems? Yes. Are they widespread and affecting thousands or tens of thousands of customers? No. Customer service ratings are currently at historical highs.

I understand what you are seeing in your state. I see it in my state as well but currently everyone appears to me "moving on" on the ground and not in the air.

Bookings are up from the lows but still negative. Bookings have flirted with being positive for a few days recently. Raising equity would not help our cash negative problem, it would just allow us to last longer in a cash negative situation. We have no reason to raise equity when the debt markets are still open to us.

Being #1 in size has actually never been discussed. We would rather be #1 in several key financial and customer metrics. If being #1 in the financial/customer metrics eventually makes us #1 in size then so be it, but it's not an explicit goal. And, no one has said we don't have a couple of potential "bold moves" being analyzed.

The qualitative analysis is used to supplement the quantitative data it doesn't override it. It's not like bookings are maxed out and the qualitative analysis says, "well, Disney Land isn't open so let's ignore all this booking activity and keep things as is."

The "FUD" is not faked, it is very real.