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Old 09-16-2020, 09:47 AM
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Default Delta Seeking $9B in Bonds

-Why so much?

-Why bonds over loans?


Discuss....

Delta already has $15B liquidity and is raising another $9B. There is no business projection that indicates Delta needing $24B in liquidity to ride out the pandemic. I believe they are loading up on purchasing power to take advantage of opportunities over the next few years. They are looking past 2021, and want to eliminate the need to have financing contingencies for purchases of distressed assets from other airlines. Bonds probably cost them an extra 1-2% in interest over loans but allows them to push back maturity dates and to raise an even larger amount. Beginning in 2021, most airlines will be severely cash strapped and be ill equipped to generate loans. Few airlines have a compelling enough balance sheet to raise this kind of money, and it’s likely that Delta is leaning on that advantage. Only time will tell if the premium they are paying for these bonds will be offset by lucrative acquisitions down the road. One thing we know for sure now, Delta has the ability to raise any amount of money necessary to weather the pandemic, and with this bond offering would have enough money to last for years.

Last edited by mikea72580; 09-16-2020 at 10:02 AM.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:59 AM
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money is cheap right now, also getting ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself.

SWA and Delta are the only airlines in position that are declining the CARES loans, very telling.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Scooter432 View Post
money is cheap right now, also getting ready to pounce when the opportunity presents itself.

SWA and Delta are the only airlines in position that are declining the CARES loans, very telling.
Telling of what?
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Banzai View Post
Telling of what?
The business is strong enough to get better rates and terms from private markets?
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by mikea72580 View Post
-Why so much?

-Why bonds over loans?


Discuss....

Delta already has $15B liquidity and is raising another $9B. There is no business projection that indicates Delta needing $24B in liquidity to ride out the pandemic. I believe they are loading up on purchasing power to take advantage of opportunities over the next few years. They are looking past 2021, and want to eliminate the need to have financing contingencies for purchases of distressed assets from other airlines. Bonds probably cost them an extra 1-2% in interest over loans but allows them to push back maturity dates and to raise an even larger amount. Beginning in 2021, most airlines will be severely cash strapped and be ill equipped to generate loans. Few airlines have a compelling enough balance sheet to raise this kind of money, and it’s likely that Delta is leaning on that advantage. Only time will tell if the premium they are paying for these bonds will be offset by lucrative acquisitions down the road. One thing we know for sure now, Delta has the ability to raise any amount of money necessary to weather the pandemic, and with this bond offering would have enough money to last for years.
Because we are in “survival mode”...
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by mikea72580 View Post
-Why so much?

-Why bonds over loans?


Discuss....

Delta already has $15B liquidity and is raising another $9B. There is no business projection that indicates Delta needing $24B in liquidity to ride out the pandemic. I believe they are loading up on purchasing power to take advantage of opportunities over the next few years. They are looking past 2021, and want to eliminate the need to have financing contingencies for purchases of distressed assets from other airlines. Bonds probably cost them an extra 1-2% in interest over loans but allows them to push back maturity dates and to raise an even larger amount. Beginning in 2021, most airlines will be severely cash strapped and be ill equipped to generate loans. Few airlines have a compelling enough balance sheet to raise this kind of money, and it’s likely that Delta is leaning on that advantage. Only time will tell if the premium they are paying for these bonds will be offset by lucrative acquisitions down the road. One thing we know for sure now, Delta has the ability to raise any amount of money necessary to weather the pandemic, and with this bond offering would have enough money to last for years.
Exactly this. Delta is playing the long game and will be able to strike quickly to buy large stakes in foreign carriers as they emerge from their bankruptcies.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:31 AM
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Maybe another oil refinery? It worked so well last time! Maybe one further north.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:36 AM
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Delta has some sizable debt obligations maturing before next summer. If this gets worse the cost of capital will go up. If this gets better it will be next summer when the real revenue/profits will be made and not before. Break even maybe but not much more. they need to have the refinancing done before more bad news and before the maturities. All that said, $9B is more than just for refinancing and a good portion of that is now dry powder. Let no crisis go to waste.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Banzai View Post
Telling of what?
That the private equity markets will loan them money. Much better deal than the government cash.
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Old 09-19-2020, 10:05 AM
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And the private equity market deals don't come with government ownership stakes. Thats the poison pill in the CARES loans (in addition to the oft-mentioned compensation/buyback limitations).
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