Prepare Yourselves… 2022 AEs
 

Now the the November AE is in the books it’s unlikely we will see another one post and close before the year’s end. Let the 2022 speculation commence!

Predictions in three flavors: regular, bold, and Cool Ranch!

- Next AE in early January
- 365 MOAB in April
- New hires to WB B
- NYC street-ish (<6 mo) captains? (BOLD)
- New BOS 787 category? (Cool Ranch!)

Who doesn’t love Doritos?

I predict tiny bid in January.
No to street WB FOs
Less than one year Captains but not close to six months.
Agree on 365 in April

One Chip Challenge:

ATL Captain goes to 10300.

I can see that as a possibility, considering it went to to almost 9500 this round.

I think if a January award had captains under 1 year, they would be about 6 months because that’s when classes started up again.

I miss Taco Bell Doritos. They were the best. I made a mean "taco salad" with those :D

I think we'll see a SLC 330 base opening, possible 220 base in DTW. If more businesses open and business travel returns, definitely a BOS 320 base.

BOS is one of the least dependant markets for that.

JetBlue ate Delta's lunch in BOS for over a decade precisely because they dominated leisure travel first. That got them the dominant marketshare and the business traffic followed. They went hard after the HVC's last with Mint. It was a brilliant stratedgy. Straight Outta Art Of War.

BOS is not the market where a few diamond medallions can pay for the whole flight and the rest of the cabin is an afterthought. To suceed in Boston we must go after high volume, fare sensitive leisure coach pax with less loyalty because BOS is a gold mine for revenue if you can win on that front. The business pax will only come after the fact once enough of a network is established.

IMO DL is almost there now anyway, especially once the buildup is fuly implimented. If the additional gate scenario comes to fruition (you gotta pay to play, that's just how it is there) DL could finally start nipping at the heels of JB for the first time in almost 15 years.

There's already way more than enough flying there for a base but they're hesitant because of marketing's constant deck shuffling with fleets. The 88 gone will help that a lot. I predict a BOS base announced sometime in 2022 possibly for 2023 opening.

We have a ton of gates there + we hit both domestic and international markets out of there; I never considered the marketing perspective. Well said gloopy.

I hope we do get a base there; it's a great city. Good college hockey too.

Isn’t any LAX/SLC 330 announcement construction dependent?

Meh....you have to go back 10 years to find a Beantown NCAA Frozen 4 champ and the Beanpot is nothing more than an opportunity for Bill Burr to swig some of last year's Sam Adams Jack-O-Pumpkin Boston Ale.

SLC has all the widebody gates done. The phase 2 yet to be completed 22 gates are mostly a swap of current B gates and remote RJ gates. I don't think a 330 base is construction dependant at SLC.

From my 2019 understanding this is correct, I'm sure it's just lack of market at the moment buts lots of 330's frequent SLC at the moment so I'm sure summer 2022 MOAB will have it on it.

The Beanpot is the most overrated tournament in sports. Unless you get BU/BC on good years, it's trash hockey. Now, the WCHA Final Five in the 2000's when you'd have UMN/UND in the championship game? That was real hockey.

That being said, I will go to my grave saying Boston pizza is better than New York. Don't @ me on this one.

Yeah....it's wicked awesome. Especially when accompanied by a $2 Brubaker at The Tam. Ohhh the good ol' days.

Broke 10K on 717

Spring MOAB breaks 11k

No MOAB, just frequent AEs throughout 2022. Medium sized WB in Jan, handful of NB As in Feb, good sized NB B bid for more new hires in Mar/April. Small May cleanup bid. Medium sized A bid in Aug with some new hire slots to set up for summer 2023. One or two small bids in the Fall/Winter for marketing adjustments.

Lucy hold that football...

The 717?! That’s not a real plane, it’s an RJ. Doesn’t count.

Sarcasm, BTW

You're right. It’s just a jumbo RJ. It’s not even mainline, so all you senior pilots look elsewhere!

I start Indoc next month. Can someone explain what MOAB means?

"Mother of All Bids." A ginormous Advance Entitlement (which is good.) Lots of upwards movement. They tend to happen every few years.

As opposed to a MOAD ("Mother of All Displacements,") which tend to happen during black swan events, like COVID.

Thanks to Baghdad Bob for the monicker.

One of about 1,000 acronyms that you’ll figure out in your first year. Basically, it’s just a bid man. While on the topic of bidding you’ll also see BWYWWWYB. That’s bid what you want. Want what you bid. Delta awards what they wanna award. They may fill a vacancy, they may not. They may backfill, they may not. A pilot leaves a category and you bid his spot, you may find yourself awarded something that wasn’t even posted that you wanted wanted and bid.

Bottom line—bid a plane as a new hire. Then figure out what you want to do. Put that in your preferences. If/when it’s awarded to you, go back to school and learn it and relax for a bit.

Delta does what Delta wants. People here pretend to be in control of their personal lives :)

Thanks for the explanation. I recall Baghdad Bob quite well. I separated from the military just before he got famous.

Great explanation! What I really want is a crystal ball to figure out what gets me out of NYC and out west the quickest. I've seen a lot of different theories. Last 4 of my SSN starts with 67 so I'll have decent class seniority. Leaning towards 73N since I've seen new hires get SEA but as you say, Delta does what Delta wants. Funny thing is my wife says the same thing about me. LOL! I know I'll eventually get out west and it's going to be a great place for finishing out my career.

Yeah man. 737/320/220 all get you out west quickly and with min pain, can’t go wrong with those and you have what sounds like a ton of people getting hired after you. Might not have to spend more than 2-3 bid periods in NYC. Good luck and congrats on the job.

Any rumors of a MSP 220 base opening in the near future? Considering MSP was a 717 base for a few months, I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought in the 220 at some point when deliveries catch up. Time to take back some RJ flying that NWA initially had during the DC-9 days.

I don't think they've said much about MSP220. 220 isn't really meant for 717 type flying. Looking at their bid packets, on average the 220s shortest stage lengths are longer than the 717 max stage lengths.

You spelled BOS 320 wrong.

Holy carp, what you been doing all this time?

You misspelled MCO 350. :)

While we are all dreaming.

220 may be a smaller plane but it’s not really an RJ replacement. It seems to be more of a slightly better cabin experience plane that makes a thin pax count but high profit pax market lucrative. Think of what the 319/73-7 used to do, now doing it at half the fuel burn in a comfier cabin. There’s a reason it doesn’t fly in ATL. It’s not about filling 130-150 seats it’s about getting it to altitude to reap the CASM benefits.

Usual day last year on it was maybe one 1:30 leg plus two 2:30/3:00 hour leg. Made for some short overnights but honestly some efficient trips.

Indoc should have a chapter entitled “Aerodynamics for Delta Aviators,” where you learn what makes a Delta jet fly. Differential pressure between the upper and lower wing surface? Nope. Angle of attack or a boatload of cash? Think again. Thrust multiplied by the torque vector of a widget? In fact, no. Asymmetric alignment of the flux capacitors? Not really … It’s a multitude of acronyms! Which is really effing handy, since you can learn them all today and have a new batch churned out by next Monday. Train by bulletin for the new acronyms. AFFE (acronym fun for everyone). It’s a thing; career goal is to avoid having your name encompassed within one!

I’d like 737 NYC. If there aren’t any 737 NYC spots left in my class and I bid for another base’s 737 status, how long until I’d be able to base trade or bid for NYC? Would it be in the next AE? Thanks.

there are almost always openings in NYC. I’m not much of a gambling man, but every person I know who wants NYC has been able to transfer there within a few months

now we’re talking

What was that you said?

CHS 7ER?

Yeah that’s what I heard as well.

Wrong.

Word is we're getting so many 787's that CHS will become a base just to cut down on DH's from ATL for the repo flights.

RDU. Seriously, the region is exploding with growth, with a lot more to come in the next 10 years.

Id get on board with that!

AUS has entered the chat.

CVG has reentered the chat....

Sigh.