Prepare yourselves… 2023 AEs
 

Have at it.

BOS320? SLC330?

SLC330 will open on the same AE as they close SeaER and 330a will drop to a 2007 hire next year.

Good prediction.

Here’s one, will we see 2014 or later hold 765A?

330A only went 31XX this bid. 2007 in a year is like 45XX.

Any predictions on how big SLC330 opens? I’m guessing 45A/90B.

NYC765A hit 4000s on this bid. The fleet is still in the midst of a transformation back to all international so more Captains are needed on the next bid. This time next year preparations for Summer 24 will be well underway. By that time the 350-1000s will have been announced along with additional 330neos orders. Long story short I think more people will wait for 330/350A positions and skip 765A allowing it to go relatively junior. I predict it hits 2007/2008 hires for sure in 2023 with a good chance of hitting 2014 hires

That's solely looking at this bid, which is a "small" bid. Plus you have to account for growth.

The 330 fleet is growing as is the 350. The 330 will hit 2007 hires next year.

This could drive 320A super junior in NYC (as if it isn't already) depending on how many block hours get lost to BOS. There are a lot of senior guys in the northeast who are foaming at the mouth for the chance to drive to work.

Prediction

After how junior ERA and 73NA went this AE we will have a TA before the next AE.

QOL improvements, PSc, and possible extra $$ for NYC positions (similar to FAA)

Why does the company care how junior a category goes? If it’s filled, it’s filled. I don’t see them paying extra for anything.

It's not filled 20 unfilled 7ERA and 12 73NA unfilled

Edit- Looks like BS said they decided not to fill those spots. I wonder if that was at trainings request.

The company is very happy with the juniority. Better to have 12+ year pilots sitting in FO seats and junior sitting in A seats. Delta saves $25 an hour staffing the left seat with junior captains.

3 more things to expect:

Next AE in Jan/Feb 2023 potentially earlier

NYC 73NA Greenslips Galore

NYC7ERA Greenslips Galore


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It's funny they can just "decide" that. Why do they even post available positions if they don't even have to fill them!?

They do that all the time with the B positions. It is very rare on the A side, and this might even be the first time??

I don’t see hiring slowing down to 100/mo either, at least not for long. There is too much growth in travel, even in the face of a possible recession.

Go after that greenslip gravy train fellas. Just remember that you are doing them for 2019 pay rates. Soldier on. Ed is smiling.

It was reported that during the LCA meeting, management reported that Sep22 hires were ‘awarded’ CA spots on the preliminary results. My guess is they decided it was better to not fill than have guys who hadn’t even finished their Initial Qual moving straight to the left seat.

They’ll slow it down. Look at past practices with regards to staffing.

Oops, we had a good plan but weather/payback days/sick time/ATC caused it to not work. TFAYD

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My thought is they’re saying this for contract negotiations. They’re being very coy as to how many pilots they want to have on the list. Over at ual they’re saying they want to hire 400 a month and grow their list to 20,000 pilots. If delta would come out and say that, that’d be tremendous leverage for us right now.

We have all the leverage we need. At the LCP meeting they said they are going to run next summer really really hot. Draw your own conclusions.

United said similarly high numbers last decade and never got close. I wouldn’t put much faith in those prognostications

To add: the chart from the standards meeting showed only a drop in hiring through summer months to allow instructors’ fly months to match demand better. Nowhere was there a dramatic reduction in hiring

Agreed. It’ll be interesting to see how it turns out. What leads into believing it is the amount of growth they have with all those NB orders. But I digress, sorry for the thread drift.

I think that’s assuming NYC (or other bases for that matter) remain at their current size. NYC320A has shrunk over the last 12-18 months. BOS may pull flying that other bases are currently doing and may be somewhat offset by positions lost elsewhere.

I (NYC320A) am considering gking back to the ER but as a Captain, once my seat lpck is up. Similar seniority percent but more people junior on the ER.


Although Id really like them to open BOS320 first, because if I move up from 75% to 50% that might be a stay on the 320 sign.

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I think bs said that the next ae will finish summer of 2023? This last one was 60 percent and this one will be the remaining 40?
I would expect slc 330 and bos 320 would open in an ae after that one

Has there ever been talk of an LAX220 base? Does the 220 touch SNA/ONT/LGB/BUR that often?

there was talk of it when the 220 showed up, but not much since. It’s in LAX/SNA all the time

Yup...that was the conventional wisdom (LAX220) right up until they posted the first 220 AE. There was shock when it was SLC.

You and I must talk to different people.

Unscientific Informal polling says the majority of New England’ers currently commuting to NYC ER aren’t not going to spend a month on VA Ave to learn French and fly sh!tty NB domestic rotations just to drive to work for a a few years. Current NYC 73A are 50/50.

Really hoping a west coast 330 spot drops to 11.5 range next April… wish you all luck next year on your bids!

With SEA 7ER closing that may be a tall order.

yeah, I could see that. More routes on west coast coming thankfully to hopefully spur more growth with the added deliveries. Will have to see how SLC moves SEA as well whenever they decide to open it. Only about 30 B’s left senior to me on SEA ER anyways. Not a monumental base size it was anyways.

Generally the company prefers to fund block hours for a new base with growth hours from new deliveries. It generates far fewer training events verses shifting hours. There may be some drop in NYC block hours but I bet it’s very small. There will be plenty of block hours available from new deliveries.

A321neos are coming thick and fast!
https://aibfamily.flights/airline/Delta-Air-Lines/

I'm talking about the current 320A's who live in the northeast.

I would contemplate doing BOS as a base (I grew up ~55 miles south of Boston near Plymouth) but living in Maine, NH or southeast VT.

The problem is I'm leery of going to a one trick pony pilot base (CVG anyone?) buying a house there, then basically being back to a primarily air commute that is driveable in a pinch. Which is what I have now.

How bout a virtual base "experiment" in Florida?

I'm getting a similar vibe. The WB FOs are very hesitant to give up their cushy lifestyles to drive to work for what we expect the schedules will look like, and many of them are on the verge of holding ER-A or bigger anyway. A surprising development has been senior NB captains indicating they will stay put in NYC to enjoy the seniority.

Now if they open a 330 base (which is looking likely for 2024 with an outside chance for 2023) all of this changes. The 330 will likely be the most senior category in the entire company, and the 320 will be as junior as NYC.

The Panda would be the logical choice.

let’s add a few more in there as well! BNA/AUS/DFW/RDU/ORD