United CJO vs Delta CJO
 

I have been fortunate enough to receive CJO’s from United and Delta. I am trying to make the very difficult decision between the two. I am going to be a commuter to either. Is there a general consensus on which is the brighter looking airline for the future? Pros to Delta seem to be reserve rules, commutability, pay, new contract, 18hr LCR, however I’ve heard cons are that Delta has already hired a lot more than UAL over the past few years and seniority movement would be a lot slower than UAL. Pros to UAL seem to be the amount of wide body international flying they have, rapid growth and seniority movement, quick upgrade, and more retirements and hiring to come. Can anyone touch on these things? I have 40 years left of flying but seniority movement seems to be a lot better at United?

I believe this question gets answered a lot. UAL forum gets this question a lot too. Would recommend using the search function as there have been many others with the same question.

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/d...ta-united.html

https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/d...094-ua-da.html

Why don’t you borrow a uniform from a buddy at each airline and see which one you look better in?

Seriously though, the elephant in the room here is the fact you’ll be commuting for 40 years? How can you be so tied down at 25 years old? What about the possibility of moving to a base. Or pick the airline who has the base you could see yourself moving to if commuting just got too crazy.

Not going to live in base? Delta reserve and commuters rules are way better than United’s. If you’re commuting to both, the only way I’d say go to United is just to get into class at a legacy while you waited for Delta.

If you commute, I think UAL has a seniority based JS, in that you can get bumped at the last minute by a senior pilot for whatever reasons (UAL guys correct me if I'm wrong). At DAL, once you book the seat, it's yours unless you get bumped off by a Fed or a Checkairman, and if you're going to work, you get positive space in the back.

I've commuted, off and on, my whole career, and having that seat booked for sure is a huge stress saver. Knowing you could get bumped at any time for reasons, would be a real drag.

Yes, Delta has hired a ton since 2014. The good news is not like the 1980s where everyone hired was in their late 20s or early 30s. Every class has a pretty good demographic spread, so there will always be some movement, but it's not going to be crazy high like AMR or UAL.

If you've got 40 years left, seriously consider moving to base. You'll have MUCH less stress, spend less money, have more opportunity and local pilots can kill it with extra flying. You no doubt add some years to the end of your life avoiding the stress.

Most of the MEC updates I’ve seen recently has shown the average age of new hires in the mid 30 range. So for every 20 something there’s a 40-50 something to average it out. So it’s not a straight lineal progression.

1) this is like asking in 1983 which airline would be best for the 21st century. It’s likely to be a smoother ride but nobody knows

2) the single greatest choice YOU control that will vastly improve your qol is moving to a base that won’t ever close (think atl not slc, ewr not mco)

Thanks for sharing those. I was actually trying to search and found some but those are helpful as well. Thank you

These are all helpful things to consider. I get it that its not a black and white question and that the easy answer is move to a base, but thats not going to happen which is why I'm seeking realistic advice from anyone. These are all helpful things to consider. Is it true that widebody international flying trips (such as at UAL) are more commutable? I'm trying to weigh my two biggest pros I have at United (high number of WB flying, and tons of hiring and retiring to still do), with the biggest pros at Delta (reserve rules, commutability). I'm leaning towards Delta due to those things (and I like the company), however wonder if its true how much faster seniority progression will be at UAL and if it even matters or is comparable.

I get what you're saying, but SLC seems to have reached critical mass. Would it close before ATL closes? Theoretically yeah, of course. But if SLC closes in 90+% of circumstances that would happen in, we'd be in big trouble anyway.

Wasn't DFW one of our biggest hubs before it closed?

One other thing that I'm curious as to people's thoughts on is, if Delta and Endeavor do merge in the future, how would Endeavor pilot's seniority play into Delta's list? Would they simply be stapled to the bottom of the DL seniority list and have no real affect on the DL pilots, or would it mix in and potentially hurt pilot's seniority that have already been at Delta for years?

Recommend going through the "UA or DA" thread and the "Delta or United" thread. Your questions were probably answered several times.

A5S

I have read both of those threads in their entirety. Just looking for any further advice or opinions - not an easy decision and no right answer I understand.

and DL was in bankruptcy, so yeah pretty deep trouble.

so was CVG.

i think it was sailing (May have been another poster) listed all the bases DL had when they were hired in the mid 80s, and all but 1 (ATL of course) has since closed. and they have not actually opened a base that is still around since then (all other current bases acquired via a merger)

But this isn’t 20 or 40 years ago, the dynamic at play are definitely different when 4 airlines control 80% of the domestic market share.

who knows what the future holds, but I would be surprised if SLC closes unless delta is in deep trouble.

on the flip side and to make your point, we all saw how delta panicked during Covid and was planning on running a 7000 pilot “boutique airline”. So who knows they may in fact close every base but ATL over the next 40 years like they did over the last 40

Another thing United mentioned was their plan/ambitious goal to grow the pilot base from ~16,500 to 28,000 pilots by the end of 2030. It seems as if they are going to continue hiring as much as possible for the foreseeable future. Does anyone know if that is Delta's plan as well, or what their hiring needs/plans are going forward?

Apples vs Crabapples. The investments in SLC seem to dwarf DFW already and its still growing.

I’m assuming you are 25 . So you probably have 42 years left and more then likely 44 years when they push it to 69 eventually 😂😂. Delta probably you’re best bet , but not sure how things will go when Delta merges with JB ✌️.

As a DL guy I’ll be blunt - here is good. It’s very good. UA might be better though. You’ve hit the high points that people care about - wide body flying and seniority. Both would be better at United. Go there. Congrats on the amazing CJOs at both!

I had to make the same choice. Went with Delta, hands down the right decision. Past performance doesn’t something something who knows what the future will hold.

If you truly believe United is going to grow to 28,000 pilots then the choice is easy. You would be close to 35% in about 6 years. That would be an amazing career. I would bet a lot of money that doesn’t happen but who knows. Delta has been hellbent on outsourcing International flying the past decade. That would weigh on my decision.

UA is very clear with their 1 year, 5 year, 10 year plans. I have heard annual hiring goals, fleet goals, etc. They even coined it with a catchy name (United Next). 28k pilots? Wow! Will it happen? Maybe, probably. By 2030? Who knows. At least their intentions are known.

Delta is very different. We have vague platitudes of an annual "flight plan", and have to read the tea leaves with aircraft orders with obscure delivery timelines to speculate what that means for growth. Do we retire planes, or are we keeping them longer and take new jets as growth? We don't know. They don't tell us their medium and long term plans for the enterprise. They haven't given us a target pilot size beyond 1 year in about ever. Forget about >1 year or by 2030. In 2022, doubt many people pilots knew that we'd be at 16k now, or 17k by the end of this year.

My take is this. UA has better gateways for international than AA & DL. They are undersized domestically vs DL & AA. Adding NBs only helps balance WB network feed. Coupled with their over-reliance on RJs, mainline UA has room to grow. That's what United Next is all about.

DL will grow too, but we've absorbed most of the 50-seat RJs compared to our peers. Growth domestically will be measured. Opportunities will be international, but we split more flying with partners by choice, limiting mainline pilot growth. We are trying to get a foothold in airports that can sustain intl expansion (LAX/NYC/SEA/BOS). We can't catch United's scale IMO. I think we'll continue to hire and grow to not be dwarfed in scale by UA..but it will be quietly over time, just like how we got here today.

20k pilots is a much more realistic goal, which is more along the lines of what I have heard

We went from around ~11,000 to 16,000 in less than 3 years. That isn’t exactly quiet growth. United has been aiming for a 20,000 pilot group for two decades now so it is hard to take their goals seriously. If anyone really thought they are going to be 28,000 pilots strong in 6.5 years then it is an easy decision. There are also probably about 5,000 Delta pilots that would be well served to make that jump. It would be an amazing ride.

You are right, at least they have stated goals. And they aren’t as high on the international outsourcing horse as Delta. And they have more attrition. And they have a bigger international footprint. I’d probably gamble and go to United.

11,000 to 15,000... that was restoring to pre-covid 14,600 or whatever. The last 1,000 is what I consider growth beyond our 2020 size. How big of a pilot size do we target for 2024, 2025, end of the decade? Just last year, I pressed and pressed for target seniority list size for this year, and never got straight answers. Only, " hiring 200 month". Certainly not 16k by summer, or 17k EOY'23. This past January was the first annual hiring goal I've heard, and it was just a casual comment by Bob in a Skyhub.

When I say quiet growth, I mean we don't market some bold long term goal, make splashy mega aircraft orders, announce ambitious growth to the media, etc. In the end, we might grow pretty aggressively, but we just make smaller close in orders of jets, delay aircraft retirements, hire hough numbers of pilots but without announcing future pilot hiring goals.

I think United is the way to go. United has hired relatively less, has plans to grow, has more diverse flying and has a base that (at 2.5 hours, kinda) works for you (if you want WB, you will likely be on reserve for years and you are outside of the SC window, so keep that in mind). How long would it take to get to NYC at Delta? Sounds like you would almost be better off commuting to ATL at that point.

That being said, we can't take growth plans of this magnitude at face value. 28,000 pilots? That would more than double United's size pre-covid. United, Delta and American are effectively the world's three largest carriers. If United grew to 28,000 pilots, it wouldn't be that far off from doubling the size of the world's second and third largest carriers (I think Delta and AA will both end up with around 17,000-17,500 pilots when this wave is over).

You have to ask yourself if this would make sense for United. Sure there is excess demand that is not being met at this time. That being said, it is the beginning of the summer and we are still riding the post-covid traveling wave. Does it make sense long term to be the world's largest airline by such a margin? Will travel demand support such an investment long term? What happens if travel demand doesn't support it and United is stuck paying off 700 new airplanes? These are questions management needs to answer, but it is fair for us to ask these questions. SK has touted "fleet flexibility," so there is no doubt these are factors management is considering as well.

My point is that these factors probably make the plan of 28k pilots extremely unlikely. That's fine. There are still plenty of things to be excited about. But I'd recommend you view the scenario as if United will settle on 18,000-20,000 pilots. If United gets to 28k, awesome. But at least you won't be making a decision viewing it as a foregone conclusion.

28k pilots it’s the carrot to get bodies up te front door.

Those that doesn’t know the story…

Scot Kirby is doing the same thing he did in AA. Promise big things and under deliver every single time.

I don’t think UAL will grow massively. AA has now less pilots than us and have to keep up with big retirements. Age 67 will benefit AA the most, same as the Cares act did.

United is the king of overpromising and underdelivering. They have a CEO who is desperate to show up his old bosses at American, and is spending money like a drunken sailor to do it. I don't know very many people who believe his lofty "United Next" plan will actually happen.

Very few airlines have furloughed twice in my career. United is one of them. They would have furloughed 3 times if Uncle Sugar hadn't bailed everyone out during corona. I really wouldn't trust their management to keep their promises, and they will be the first one to literally hire and then furlough the next day.

You see a lot of griping about Delta management here, but it's mostly petty day to day operational and personality stuff. I prefer their conservative growth plan and they have a proven track record of making money. When the next black swan comes along, they'll probably be in the best shape to withstand it. I don't think I can say that about United. Sure, you won't move up very fast here, and I think it's going to stay 5+ years to hold WB international as an FO, but it's a good job and a stable job, which is a lot for this industry.

how long do you think someone will be on reserve for?

Didnt SK admit that opening Vegas and MCO as well as the 200 airframe order was a way to attract more pilots?

The current version of the age 67 legislation has a return-to-work entitlement. Many of Delta's VEOP's are chomping at the new pay rates (and they've forgotten what you have to live through to earn those rates). Age 67, as written, is a bigger deal than age 65 was. (I have no idea if the terms of Delta's VEOP will hold against Federal Law, but it will be tested).

All other things being equal, I'd go where that has less of an effect.

It’s impossible to know for someone hired today because United has hired so many in the last couple years and we don’t know when the 787’s will come in with Boeing’s supply chain issues. We’re probably talking about at least a few years though.

There is no way the VEOPS are coming back unless it's the bottom of the list. They took a buyout and voluntarily gave up their seniority rights. That's a lot different than someone who aged out at 65.

Maybe, maybe not. Have not seen the final version of the law, nor the contract the VEOPs signed. It surprised me the law had a right to return. That provision was explicitly not in the age 65 legislation. It is my understanding, based on reporting, that the legislator who inserted the current language has a brother who is a Delta pilot.

In other words, whoever inserted it has a specific end-state goal in mind that 99% of Congress wouldn't even be aware of, or care about.

Courts are getting to be more human and less objective. I've seen results, even in DL administrative law cases, that I've not believed. ... sometimes a judge just wants to help someone out and they get incongruently subjective.

What’s the source on this?

Interesting. If true wonder how they will handle a VEOP that got postponed until the mandatory retirement date??? Oh my, something for peeps to gnash their teeth over while awaiting AE results!:eek:

Course you also have posts like this ^^^ to help get folks spooled up. I have an idea, why not wait until something becomes more official before peeps lose their ever loving shiznit over possibilities? Not like we get a vote is it?

Is their brother who's a Delta pilot RoseAndBill?

thank you.