I mentioned this in another thread yesterday, but current upgrade timing is irrelevant to someone not on property. Things have and are changing far too fast for that data to matter to you.

That said, lately, captain upgrades have been awarded as short as ~18 months at DL. The most recent bid was an outlier, but was about 2.5 years. BUT, it will both get more senior and take longer as hiring has slowed since those pilots were hired. I would suspect that someone applying today could easily see a 5-year upgrade, or even longer. Far too many variables to accurately project though.

I will always reference the "AE Trend Analysis" when people start talking about 'time to upgrade'. Like Fangs said, time is a moving target dependent upon 1) the speed of hiring, 2) the speed of retirements and 3) aircraft deliveries/utilization.

AE Trend Analysis Thread
PS. Credit goes to Fangs for the Data, too.

Also with AEs every month, people can be more sure where they’re going to get. When there were bigger and more scarce AE, pilots wouldn’t take the same risk as today.

Thats when the JR pilots will sneak around. I’m sure that with a bigger AE the WBA would probably be lower than lately. Also, with the mid bid mock, people adjust their bids accordingly.

Honestly, I’ve flown with a lot of FOs hired last year that is better to stay in the right seat for some time. Not saying they are bad pilots, most are super sharp flying, but the very very young guys/gals sometimes lack from the experience gained from older generation of CAs. I’m not saying, be a 10 yr FO, but 3-4 solid years in the right seat will bring a better experience.

So I’m glad upgrade is taking a tad longer than last two years.

On the topic of UA&DL, while I intend on taking this upcoming DL class, and am still awaiting the UA date..

I did some digging into UA Next growth plan, while very flashy and looks great, do yall think DL would ever truly let UA overshadow it pilot group wise?
So if UA became 20K group, I.E. delta would also become 20K size to match the competition & maintain equivalent market share? Just seems like a common business strat DL would have to do.
DL seems to be quiet about their growth plans outside of >1 year while UA is flashy & publicizes long-term plans.. just can’t imagine DL ever being dwarfed (+/- 1,000 pilots) by United or AA.
Has delta had a “Delta Next” equivalent growth plan in the past I’m unaware of? Or is DL poised for equivalent growth of UA just quiet about it?

I don't think Delta really cares who has the bigger pilot group. Strategies come and go as leadership changes, but these days Delta is more concerned with who is more profitable rather than who is the biggest. The United Next comes with risks, and Delta is a bit more risk adverse, they seem to be angling for slow and steady growth, primarily in international. As for which approach is better, pilots can (and will) argue about it all day, but we will just have to wait and see.

This line of thinking is putting the cart before the horse.

Pilot group size is an irrelevant metric between competing airlines, other than the fact that pilots are expensive. In fact, DL would be happier to fly the same volume/revenue as UA with fewer expensive pilots. This might be considered winning.

That said, market share is absolutely a metric in the thinking. Even at the expense of profitability in some places, market share is key. To feed the market requires airplanes, and airplanes need pilots. Soooo... yea, DL might want to indirectly match pilot group size with UA. But the number of pilots come last in the equation, not first.

My question for United is where do they think they're going to get the gates to support a 30K pilot airline???

Managements goal is to make the pilot group as small as it can and operate effectively (cheaper)... don't see any management team hiring more pilots just for bragging rights. DAL could easily funnel 1000 pilots worth of international flying through it's international partners and reap the benefits with less costs.

Fixed it.

Filler

LAX T9 delayed. SFO UA will eventually will add long planned 2nd Asia bank with same gates, moving flights into T2, renovating and adding gates to T1. DEN UA added more gates in B concourse and took over half of the A concourse. IAH UA gates are underutilized and adding more gates. ORD added more int'l gates, UA reconfigured T1 gates for more flexibility, building Satellite 1 concourse, then new T2 and then Satellite 2 concourse over the next decade. AA is shrinking at ORD. IAD is underutilized and approved new 14-gate terminal opening in 2026. EWR just opened new Terminal A and UA replacing regional flight with mainline aircraft even more than they are throughout the system. UA has a lot of underdeveloped domestic hubs and the two best int'l gateways, but 30K is ambitious to say the least.