Great Info - will stick this for a while.

Courtesy of FangsF15


We've had 5 "Monthly" AE's now, so I thought I'd see if we have any trends forming. I looked at the plug WB A, WB B, and NB A, and did some math with the actual Seniority List number for each month (since we are adding 200+/month).

Here's the data: Raw numbers don't tell a full story, so I included percentage of total seniority list, which is a much better gauge ("time to hold" is a horrible gauge when hiring is crazy like it has been, especially considering hiring will slow down in about 6-7 months. Flt ops has said 200/month though the start of summer, then 100/month the rest of the 2024).

2023
June AE Plug
WB A 25XX, 15.7%
WB B 86XX, 54.1%
NB A 134XX, 84.5%

July AE Plug
WB A 31XX, 19.5% (Excluding 1 MD)
WB B 103XX, 64.5%
NB A 138XX, 86.3%

Aug AE Plug
WB A 38XX, 23.5%
WB B 112XX,69.5%
NB A 141XX, 87.0%

Sep AE Plug
WB A 39XX, 23.8%
WB B 116XX, 70.5%
NB A 142XX, 86.9%

Oct AE Plug
WB A 39XX, 23.7%
WB B 114XX, 69.3%
NB A 145XX, 87.6%

Nov AE Plug
WB A 449X, 26.8% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 345X, 20.7%)
WB B 129XX, 77.4% (Note: 2 awards higher than plug was 117XX, 70.0%)
NB A 145XX, 87.0%

Dec AE Plug
WB A 455X, 27.1% (Note: Non NYC 330 plug 405X, 24.1%)
WB B 146XX, 87.4%
NB A 146XX, 87.4%

2024
Jan AE Plug
WB A 46XX, 27.5%
WB B 145XX, 86.3% (Not surprisingly in NYC. BUT, only 9 awards senior was over 2000 numbers senior. That person was 72.6%)
NB A 145XX, 86%

Feb AE Plug
WB A 47XX, 27.7%
WB B 123XX, 72.3%
NB A 148XX, 87%

Mar AE Plug
WB A 42XX, 24.6%
WB B 126XX, 73.3% (12,1XX for ATL 330)
NB A 148XX, 86.4%

Apr AE Plug
WB A N/A
WB B 125XX, 72.7% (25 total awards, all but 3 on the 330)
NB A 147XX, 85.2% (15 total awards)

May AE Plug
WB A N/A
WB B 125XX, 72.7% (29 total awards)
NB A N/A

Jun AE Plug
WB A N/A
WB B 126XX, 72.7%
NB A N/A

Jul AE Plug
WB A 36XX 20.9%
WB B 127XX 73.4%
NB A 148XX 85.6%

Aug AE Plug
WB A 406x 23.4%
WB B 128xx 74.2%
NB A 145xx 83.8%

Sep AE Plug
WB A 447x 25.7%
WB B 113xx 65.2%
NB A 124xx 71.3%

Oct AE Plug
WB A 44xx, 25.7%
WB B 12,5xx, 72.6%
NB A 13,8xx, 79.5%

BOS 330 A 23xx 13.3%
BOS 330 B 10,4xx 60.3%

Nov AE Plug
WB A 43xx, 24.9%
WB B 12,5xx, 72.5%
NB A 146xx, 84.6%

BOS 330 A 24xx 14.3%
BOS 330 B 12,5xx 72.5%

Dec AE Plug
WB A 46xx, 27.2%
WB B 12,6xx, 73.6%
NB A 139xx, 80.9%

BOS 330 A 27xx 16.0%
BOS 330 B 139xx 73.6%

2025
Jan AE Plug
WB A 51XX 29.4%
WB B 113xx 71.1%
NB A 129xx 74.8%

BOS 330 A 29xx 16.9%
BOS 330 B 123xx 71.1%

Feb AE Plug
WB A 35XX 20.5%
WB B 129xx 74.5%
NB A 144xx 82.8%

BOS 330 A N/A
BOS 330 B 127xx 73.3%

Mar AE Plug
WB A 26XX 15.0%
WB B 100xx 57.1%
NB A N/A

Apr AE Plug
WB A 34XX 19.6%
WB B 105xx 60.1%
NB A N/A

May AE Plug
WB A 30XX 17.5%
WB B 105XX 59.9%
NB A N/A

Jun AE Plug
WB A 26XX 15.1%
WB B 129XX 74.3%
NB A N/A

SEA 350 A 25XX 14.6%
SEA 350 B 72XX 41.2%

Jul AE Plug
WB A 33XX 19.3%
WB B 126XX 72.6%
NB A N/A

SEA 350 A 33XX 19.3%
SEA 350 B 103XX 59.7%

Aug AE Plug
WB A 35XX, 20.3%
WB B 72XX,41.6%
NB A N/A

SEA 350 A 35XX, 20.3%
SEA 350 B 72XX, 41.6%

Sep AE Plug
WB A 37XX, 21.7%
WB B 77XX,44.3%
NB A 11,0XX, 63.5%

SEA 350 A 35XX, 20.5%
SEA 350 B 77XX, 44.3%

Oct AE Plug
WB A 40XX, 23.2%
WB B 119XX, 69.2%
NB A NA

Nov AE Plug
WB A 391X 22.7%
WB B 127XX 74.0%
NB A 123XX 71.5%

Dec AE Plug
WB A 396X, 23.1%
WB B 125XX, 73.3%
NB A 114XX, 66.7%

2026
Jan AE Plug
WB A 42XX, 24.7%
WB B 130XX, 75.9%
NB A 129XX, 75.1%

Feb AE Plug
WB A 45XX, 26.4%
WB B 135XX, 78.1%
NB A 135XX, 78.4%

Mar AE Plug
WB A 485X 27.8%
WB B 138XX 79.0%
NB A 137XX 78.7%


[May 24] Interesting notes: The company plug got a base change. In fact, almost exactly half of the awards on this AE were simple Base Changes for Seat Locked pilots, with a great variety of categories awarded to the bottom. About 1/3 of the awards were in categores with no posted vacancies. Further, 12 of the 29 WB B awards were in categories with no posted vacancies (n ATL, NYC, MSP, and SEA). All proving once again, BWYW. You can't get an award for which you have no bid. Someone else will, however.

[Jul 24] A more senior WB A bid. Which is crazy considering they posted 40 WB A vacancies but awarded 91 WB A's - more than double what was posted. And all but 6 of those were awarded in pre-posted categories. 19 posted NB A vacancies, but awarded 59 NB A's (a little less suprosing since the extra WB A's created secondary vacancies for some extra NB A's) Too early to say if this portends a new/senior trend, since the last 2 bids were FO only, and there haven't been any WB A's since March. Interesting that there was a bypass at 146XX, I'm guessing a 9E flow who came over and will hit 65 pretty soon. That's gotta be a some kind of record, or darn close. I'd expect the fall bids to generate much more movement.

As always, there will be awards beyond what is posted, so BWYW WWYB. Including unposed categories

[Aug]Nothing far out of the norm. Though WB A went more junior than the Jul AE, it’s still slightly more senior than the last year or so, and still solidly in the 2000/2001 hires (and 1500 numbers from a 2014 hire). Interesting to see NB A go a little more senior than anytime in the post Covid era after being very stable at about 86-87%. WB B is within a percent and a half of the recent trends

[Sep] Interesting Bid. No NB A's posted, so all 18 awards were backfills. Only a handful of WB B posted, but a good number of backfills (29). Still, both NB A and WB B went significantly more senior than the stable trend. Though NB A has been slowly getting slightly more senior over the last few bids, I don't think I'd read too much into the bigger jump. WB B, on the other hand, is more significant given the decent number of backfilled awards. Though WB A went more junior than the last couple of AE's, it’s still within 1.5% of where it has spent the vast majority of the past year. But, we did add 4 more 2007 hires to the 1 (single) previous WB A award. Still over 1000 numbers away from a 2014 hire.

[Oct] BOS 330 A came mostly from NYC, specifically the 330, with 41 actual awards of the 50 coming out of the NYC base. On the B side, 53 of the 59 awards (75 posted vacancies) came from NYC, with a little more variance in 'old' category. 34 of the 59 WB B's came from another NYC WB B (330/765). Clearly, they decided to meter the FO's as they predicted. For the 'legacy' catagories, the seniority was pretty much in line with where they have been over the last 14-15 months, with the dip from last month for NB A/WB B (mostly) gone. There were few backfills, especially on the B side. For example, I count 19 765B's bidding out, but only 13 765 B's backfilled (no vacancies posted)... They did backfill all the 765 A's, however. But of the 31 NYC 330 A's who bid out, zero were backfilled... FWIW, I would expect BOS 330 to drop in seniority over the next few 'buildup' bids to be more in line with the other WB's.

[Nov] As is typical, the final bid is senior to the mid-bid, as they limited the backfills in some categories. BOS 330 A still came mostly from NYC. On the B side, however, a lot more diversity of previous category. Lots of training from BOS 330 this AE, about 2/3 of the awards. Otherwise, WB A and B are still really steady. NB A bumped back up, showing the last couple bids were possibly an abberation, reather than a new norm. Will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of bids, which will probably be bigger in preparation for summer '25.

Also, the bottom pilot was awarded a base move, so for any prospective NH's, there is still a good chance you can get the base you want, so probably favor equipment over base in your indoc preferences, situational dependant of course.

[Dec] Very slightly more junior WB (A and B), and more senior NB Captain bids. NB A seems to be on a distictly more senior trend, which as hiring slows to a normal pace (or less?), will drive the time to hold Captain notably longer. Prosepective NH's take note. Despite saying they likely woudn't fill all BOS spots, there were actually a few BOS backfills for the first time (I think), as some folks bid out via base change, and one first time captain. That said, I took BOS out of the chart, since it seems to be pretty stable now (2 bids now, where the junior WB B awarded was BOS 330 B), and it feels like a distraction. I also had excel add sub-10% grid lines to be able to see smaller trends. As always, happy to have any feedback.

[Jan 25] Obviously, WB A went pretty junior, but WB B and NB A both went much more senior. I suspect WB A went junior due to 80 WB A vacancies (103 awarded with backfills), the most junior of which went to the perennial junior NYC 765. Time will tell if this is an outlier, or whether WB A really does drive more junior.

[Feb 25] WB A clearly went significantly more senior. In fact, more senior than anytime in the last 15 months (and to the Mock as well). Again, if you look at last year, the vacancies really started to drop off in February, and were zero for 3 months of the summer. It seems that trend is reapeating itself. WB B and NB A continue to bounce around a little. I think the trend line really tells the tale, as NB A has a couple 'senior' dips, but as hiring has slowed, it continues to trend more and more senior. The variance on the WB side (A and B) is much smaller deviaitons from a very flat trend.

[Mar 25] Very, very small bid with virtually zero backfills. I'm going to exclude this bid's data from all the trend line calculations, as it's clearly an outlier. Also, as previously noted, if last year is a guide, there will be no WB A's posted until July, and very few (if any) NB A's. The last 3 months have tracked an extremely similar to the same 3 months last year, so it's a reasonable assumption. Also, note that the company plug New Hire continues to be able to successfully bid for a base change, so prospective new hires should keep that in mind when preferencing equipment over base (not vice versa...). No promises, but it's a pretty low risk choice.

[Apr 25] Super Small bid, one backfill. The only surprise was the number of bypasses. Don't expect any meaningful vacancies until July at the earliest. Once again, we will have to see a bunch of FO's posted before they can start hiring again. So, we'll know a little in advance when they plan to start new classes, probably not until the Fall. If anyone sees any Endeavor seniority numbers posted, that will also telegraph hiring 90 days later...

[May 25] Clearly, WB A and B are have shifted senior as hiring has slowed/paused and AE's have gotten smaller. I would expect this 'shift' to last as long as the hiring pause does, but retirements will necessitate small numbers of WB A postings, which will trickle down. Continued WB deliveries will also add a small amount of pressure. NB A's probably won't be offered until the fall, or perhaps even the winter. Given how long it will have been without any NB A postings, there are a lot of pilots waiting to upgrade, so when NB A's are offered, I would expect it to settle more senior than where it was been over the last 18 months (which still has a senior trend).

[Jun 25] Not surprising to see SEA 350 go pretty senior. BOS 330 was very similar when it opened. Interestingly, on the 2-5th BOS AE, the B's normalized to company plug level, where the A's have stayed more senior to this day. So if that is any guide, SEA 350 A will stay more senior, while SEA 350 B will normalize sometime over the next few bids. WB Backfills were zero, again not surprising, especially from the SEA 330 side. Neither SEA nor BOS WB vacancies were completely filled. On the NB B side, there were a few backfills, but there were only 28 total awards (some of which were, once again all the way down to the most recent of NH classes). Remember, you can't get what you don't bid for...

Of the 60 SEA A/B awards, 36 came from other SEA categories (mostly 330), and 14 came from base transfers (all LAX). Which leaves 46 that require training, all but 10 of which are from SEA. One final note, though the company WB B plug returned to the low 70's where it has mostly been for the last 2 years, it's important to note that the last 3 awards were huge jumps in seniority numbers: from 88XX, 105XX, 113XX, 123XX. If we exclude those last 3 awards, WB B would have been at 50.4% for this bid! This gives a false sense of where the 'bottom' really lies: WB B is most certainly trending more senior, and if/when flood gates open back up again, there will be a fair amount of pent up demand from the senior ranks that will keep WB B more senior, IMO

[Jul 25] As noted already, almost exclusively a WB bid, and a fairly small one at that. They did at least fill all the vacancies this time, with two extra MSP 33A, one extra SEA 350B, and few bypasses. Almost No backfills. BOS seems to have normalized for what it takes to hold, while SEA predictably went more junior on its second AE, but is still a little senior overall to the rest of the fleets. That said, while WB B seems to have ticked back into the low 70's, if you exclude the last few awards on this AE, and especially the last one, it would be a lot more senior. I still think the trend line for WB B is pretty accurate, and that things will settle in the upper 60's to 70% over the next 6+ months.. The next thing to watch is when do they post NB A postings. When they do, I strongly suspect it will go senior to 80%, with maybe an outlier or 2. There is probably a lot of pent up demand with zero awards in the last 6 AE's.

[Aug 25] Obviously, with such an anemic bid, the numbers are skewed, especially for WB FO with only 10 vacancies. As a result, I excluded the WB data from the trend line as an outlier.

[Sep 25] Unsurprisingly, a pretty senior bid. But still nice to have some NB A’s for the first time since February. Trends are going to be tricky for a few bids while the pent up demand for NB A is released, so I’d expect it to vary a lot for a few more bids. WB A very stable, even with 35 vacancies.

[Oct 25] WB B right back to the trend line after 2 oddball/tiny bids. BOS 330 B went a little senior to previous BOS awards, while SEA 350 B went a little more junior than previous (but still well senior to BOS). WB A still holding rock steady in the very low 20’s% - a slight junior trend over the last couple, but not enough think it’s anything other than a natural sine wave for now. A larger WB bid this winter might drive it more junior though, but if they keep trickling out smaller numbers, it will probably stay where it is.

[Nov 25] Pretty close results to the mid bid. Both A's went slightly senior to the mid bid, but the WB B slipped about 50 numbers. As in the mid-bid, NB A went senior to the WB B for the first time in several years, and is a direct result of pent-up demand from the long drought in NB A vacancies. As for backfills - the number of vacancies posted equaled the number of folks who will go to training (less one WB A). There were some base swaps on top of that number. The Dec AE will very likely have a large number of FO vacancies posted for the long-expected NH classes. Hopefully then next few bids will be larger in vacancies and movement.

[Dec 25] NB A goes even more senior with some solid vacancies, and for the second month in a row goes senior to WB B (which is right in the expected window, along with WB A - which seem to be pretty stable. I wouldn't expect the NB A to stay this senior for long though, as the logjam of demand will clear out. Also, MSP 220 A ranged from one country code, then 31XX to 101XX , and B ranged from 102XX-166XX

[Jan 26] Everything went a little more junior than the prior couple of bids, as one would expect subsequent bids after a drought (especially NB A), and/or larger #'s of postings. BOS 330 B seems to hold pretty consistently the most junior WB B awarded since it's opening, in this case by ~500#'s. FWIW, Though NB A has been holding in the lower half if the 70's%, I still think it will trend toward 80% by the summer. ish. As already noted, junior WB A still a 2008 hire, but is 300#'s from a 2010 hire, and 500#'s from a 2014 hire on this bid. It won't be long, quite possibly this year.

[Feb 26] WB A plug 2010 hire. within 200 numbers of a 2014 hire. Every award is about where we'd expect them to be: slightly more junior than the last couple AE's with a large number of vacancies in all three major categories. Still, good to see WB A trending toward the 80% mark again.

Nice to see same-day publishing again, especially on a relatively larger bid.

[Mar 26] 2014 hire is a WB A. Several of them. WB A Actually went slightly Junior to mid bid. Milestone AE for sure.

Again, the very bottom of the list, NH’s with a week on property were able to change bases.