Go Back  Airline Pilot Central Forums > Airline Pilot Forums > Major
Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis >

Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

Notices
Major Legacy, National, and LCC

Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

Old 05-30-2012, 08:36 AM
  #1  
Line Holder
Thread Starter
 
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 69
Default Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

I ran some hiring numbers and thought this might be interesting Data, since it seems like were always talking about pilot hiring demand, but don't ever seem to see any real numbers to show what is happening from a larger perspective. I figured since we know what an airline aircraft order schedule looks like, and what aircraft are suppose to be replaced by that order with their fleet retirement schedule, we can reasonably project the size of an airlines fleet for the next few years. I assumed after 2020 we would see stagnant fleet sizes( just to be on the safe side in projecting pilot demand- since few orders extend beyond that year).

With this model we can project their pilot demand by multiplying the number of aircraft in their fleet by their current pilot to aircraft ratio. (For Example An Airline that has 3100 pilots and about 315 aircraft- so it takes about 10 pilots to run each aircraft) If this Airline were to grow by 1 airplane they would need 10 more pilots.

On top of their growth/shrinkage pilot requirements we can add their mandatory pilot retirements which are also fairly public knowledge. So we can add the number of pilots they need from growth each year to the number of pilots that are projected to retire to get an idea of how many pilots will be needed from that airline year after year.

Lots of things are variable (like aircraft order schedules, exercising aircraft options, pilots retiring early, pilot productivity rules, etc) so this model is a snapshot of current hiring projection from a conservative viewpoint. I put this data on my website since I didn't know how to put the graphs and tables onto this forum. I'll post additional airlines and clean up the format as I have time. Just remember these are just estimates, but I thought the calculated guess's were interesting.

Because its a conservative HR projection model over the next 10-20 years we can get a better idea of how long it will take to get to 50% seniority for upgrade for those who get hired in the next few years at the majors, based upon current aircraft orders/retirements and pilot retirements.

The most interesting thing I found in all of this was that for the next 5 to 10 years most regional FO's can expect to be in the right seat for at least 5 years, even during the most intense hiring in the next 6 years. Just because the Regional pool is so much larger compared to the Mainline pilot demand than it was 30 years ago on the front side of this wave. So we will see only 10% a year from the Regional's go to the majors. That's still 5 year upgrades.

United Airlines Projection-
United Airlines Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Delta Airlines Projection-
Delta Airlines Pilot Hiring | Audries Aircraft Analysis

American Airlines Projection-
American Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

US Airways Projection-
US Airways Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

JetBlue Airways Projection-
JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Alaska Airlines Projection-
Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Comparison and Totals-
Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis
PilotAnalyst is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 08:44 AM
  #2  
Banned
 
Joined APC: May 2012
Posts: 1,070
Default

Very nice job. I hope your predictions are right.
Slats is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 08:58 AM
  #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Flyby1206's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 320 CA
Posts: 4,624
Default

I can imagine this took a lot of work, great job.
Flyby1206 is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 09:08 AM
  #4  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 820
Default

very cool, id be curious to see spirit too.
Wingtips is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 09:10 AM
  #5  
Line Holder
 
CheapFlyer's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Oct 2007
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 80
Default

Bravo!

Lets all hope the transition of 50 seat RJ flying to larger mainline equipment will make these numbers look better going forward.
CheapFlyer is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 09:19 AM
  #6  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Mar 2012
Posts: 56
Default

Awesome job on this analysis. I would also be curious about FEDEX and UPS.
Mildred Pierce is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 10:17 AM
  #7  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: Triple Whale rider
Posts: 414
Default

Originally Posted by PilotAnalyst View Post
I ran some hiring numbers and thought this might be interesting Data, since it seems like were always talking about pilot hiring demand, but don't ever seem to see any real numbers to show what is happening from a larger perspective. ...
Where did you get your information, what are your sources and how do we know your numbers are real? Anybody can put anything on the internet these days

PtP
Palmtree Pilot is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 10:45 AM
  #8  
Line Holder
 
Van Dude's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: A-320 FO
Posts: 41
Default

I like that these are all low ball estimates due to the fact it only considers Mandatory(65) retirements.

I wonder what the average age of actual retirement is? (due to medical, personal situation, etc)
Van Dude is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 10:57 AM
  #9  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Oct 2005
Position: Furloughed
Posts: 561
Default

See guys there are some smart guys that visit this forum.
FL410 is offline  
Old 05-30-2012, 10:58 AM
  #10  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Sep 2005
Posts: 760
Default

I have two friends that got on at USAir in the last year. They will be at 50% in 8 yrs. Crazy. I hope for their sake, the pay drastically improves.
marcal is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
bull
Major
43
04-18-2009 08:46 PM
FL450
Hiring News
5
07-23-2008 01:25 PM
warhawk08
Hiring News
14
07-11-2008 04:31 PM
utedrummer
Flight Schools and Training
27
03-04-2008 06:41 PM
Oldfreightdawg
Major
1
03-03-2008 06:43 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread