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Old 05-30-2012, 08:36 AM   #1  
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Default Shortage or Just Hiring Wave- Analysis

I ran some hiring numbers and thought this might be interesting Data, since it seems like were always talking about pilot hiring demand, but don't ever seem to see any real numbers to show what is happening from a larger perspective. I figured since we know what an airline aircraft order schedule looks like, and what aircraft are suppose to be replaced by that order with their fleet retirement schedule, we can reasonably project the size of an airlines fleet for the next few years. I assumed after 2020 we would see stagnant fleet sizes( just to be on the safe side in projecting pilot demand- since few orders extend beyond that year).

With this model we can project their pilot demand by multiplying the number of aircraft in their fleet by their current pilot to aircraft ratio. (For Example An Airline that has 3100 pilots and about 315 aircraft- so it takes about 10 pilots to run each aircraft) If this Airline were to grow by 1 airplane they would need 10 more pilots.

On top of their growth/shrinkage pilot requirements we can add their mandatory pilot retirements which are also fairly public knowledge. So we can add the number of pilots they need from growth each year to the number of pilots that are projected to retire to get an idea of how many pilots will be needed from that airline year after year.

Lots of things are variable (like aircraft order schedules, exercising aircraft options, pilots retiring early, pilot productivity rules, etc) so this model is a snapshot of current hiring projection from a conservative viewpoint. I put this data on my website since I didn't know how to put the graphs and tables onto this forum. I'll post additional airlines and clean up the format as I have time. Just remember these are just estimates, but I thought the calculated guess's were interesting.

Because its a conservative HR projection model over the next 10-20 years we can get a better idea of how long it will take to get to 50% seniority for upgrade for those who get hired in the next few years at the majors, based upon current aircraft orders/retirements and pilot retirements.

The most interesting thing I found in all of this was that for the next 5 to 10 years most regional FO's can expect to be in the right seat for at least 5 years, even during the most intense hiring in the next 6 years. Just because the Regional pool is so much larger compared to the Mainline pilot demand than it was 30 years ago on the front side of this wave. So we will see only 10% a year from the Regional's go to the majors. That's still 5 year upgrades.

United Airlines Projection-
United Airlines Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Delta Airlines Projection-
Delta Airlines Pilot Hiring | Audries Aircraft Analysis

American Airlines Projection-
American Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

US Airways Projection-
US Airways Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

JetBlue Airways Projection-
JetBlue Airways Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Alaska Airlines Projection-
Alaska Airlines Pilot Demand | Audries Aircraft Analysis

Comparison and Totals-
Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis
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Old 05-30-2012, 08:44 AM   #2  
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Very nice job. I hope your predictions are right.
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Old 05-30-2012, 08:58 AM   #3  
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I can imagine this took a lot of work, great job.
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Old 05-30-2012, 09:08 AM   #4  
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very cool, id be curious to see spirit too.
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Old 05-30-2012, 09:10 AM   #5  
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Bravo!

Lets all hope the transition of 50 seat RJ flying to larger mainline equipment will make these numbers look better going forward.
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Old 05-30-2012, 09:19 AM   #6  
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Awesome job on this analysis. I would also be curious about FEDEX and UPS.
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Old 05-30-2012, 10:17 AM   #7  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PilotAnalyst View Post
I ran some hiring numbers and thought this might be interesting Data, since it seems like were always talking about pilot hiring demand, but don't ever seem to see any real numbers to show what is happening from a larger perspective. ...
Where did you get your information, what are your sources and how do we know your numbers are real? Anybody can put anything on the internet these days

PtP
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Old 05-30-2012, 10:45 AM   #8  
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I like that these are all low ball estimates due to the fact it only considers Mandatory(65) retirements.

I wonder what the average age of actual retirement is? (due to medical, personal situation, etc)
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Old 05-30-2012, 10:57 AM   #9  
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See guys there are some smart guys that visit this forum.
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Old 05-30-2012, 10:58 AM   #10  
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I have two friends that got on at USAir in the last year. They will be at 50% in 8 yrs. Crazy. I hope for their sake, the pay drastically improves.
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