Your fleet numbers for US Airways are incorrect from the word go. Started this year with 340 aircraft in the fleet, will end the year with 337 aircraft in the fleet. So a net loss of 3 airframes, not a gain of 16 airframes as you have projected.

And whatever you have included about 23 E190's should probably be removed from your calculations between 2012 and 2016. I don't think those were ever aircraft for firm delivery, they were possibly options only. A few weeks ago, I believe the President of the company said that they were happy with the current fleet of 15 E190s and not looking to add any additional E190s to the fleet at anytime in the future.

In the interests of keeping your work as accurate as possible, I can provide you with the correct data. Send me a PM once you have made enough posts on APC. Welcome!

 

Like I said, anyone can put anything on the internet. New user, simple math and pretty graphs, but no sources to provide facts or reliable estimates.

Blind faith is as good as false information.

PtP

 

I appreciate the info. Your hard work does not go unrecognized!

Let's face it. I'm not sure ANYONE could get 100% accurate information on all the numbers the OP provided from EVERY airline. It's a rough estimate.

Thanks for sharing!!

 

Outstanding first post, welcome aboard

 

I'm glad the info is informative.

I appreciate the double check on my work on US Airways, its been a couple of months since I did those numbers. I redid the US Airway numbers. A couple of factors changed the numbers from my previous assumptions.

1.) I pulled the remaining 23 E190's on order out of the equation and assumed they would never be delivered. No matter how hard I looked I could not find out when those orders are to be delivered. So in keeping with a conservative model I treated them as "Options".

2.) The delivery and retirement schedule of the A320's and 737's from the sources I was looking at were spread out over a period of 3 and a half years. However looking APC and the intel you guys the collective pilot body has it appears they will be retiring a little quicker than thought. Also I had spread the A330 delivery's over a period of 3-4 years to be conservative, considering they had already delayed once. My updated model shows them coming online with 5 in 2013 and the remaining 3 in 2014.

With all these changes though I was happy to see that the 50% point for Seniority is still between 8-9 years. Maybe a little more towards the 9 year than before due to the loss of the 23 E190's that are currently on order.

Its true though- This is Simple Math. Its adding up Mandatory Pilot Retirements and Pilots needed through Growth for each year. After being tired of hearing flight schools, and Regional's tell their students and pilots about quick upgrades and high salaries, in order to get their students to spend tens of thousands of dollars, or work for very little. I felt it was time to try a shed a little light on this, with something more substantial.

As far as sources for the aircraft order schedules, I've used Wikipedia as a baseline resource, and then followed it up with news reports and press releases from the companies, most of the order schedules are public information, and are talked about in the conference calls.

Here's a couple of links.

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/back...012_Airbus.xls

US Airways - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Just a side note it'll take a day or two to update the comparison page with the USAir data.

 

Great work!! at JB you have 0 mandatory retirements. I realize our numbers are low but they are not zero. The may be considered of no effect because 5-15 per year has no effect on hiring but they are not 0.

 

pilot shortage soon

 

Yeah, I figured the JetBlue numbers might be minimal, but I'm always trying to build a more accurate model. If you feel comfortable sharing the JB mandatory retirement schedule, I can't find it anywhere. I will put it into the numbers.

 

Great post. Make sure you edit Delta Airlines to say Delta Air Lines. Do not give the recruiters a resume with Delta Airlines on it. You will get the evil eye.

 

AA projections assume they stay in business?

Great info and a lot of hard work.