PilotAnalyst

I agree someone who truly wants to fly airplanes should do it, but hopefully this data allows people to adjust their expectations to something more aligned with realistic expectations.

This kind of data is probably one of the reasons pilot loans are becoming more difficult to get, the banks are realizing the return on investment with current projections is just not sufficient to justify 80-220,000$ of educational expense to go out and make 17-45,000 for the next 5-8 years. Luckily on this educational bubble somebody in the chain of pilot development (the Banks) are realizing the numbers just don’t add up.

Having said that I think there is a lot of hope for the industry, particularly as more prospective students are educated on what a rational, and reasonable career progression will look like, they can then make the decision if the career is right for them. Only then do I think we will see airlines forced to invest more in their pilot supply.

Any time the airlines spend more on training and supplying pilots, the replacement cost for these professionals becomes higher, and anytime the replacement costs for professionals are high companies are naturally incentivized to retain them.

Before this time those who have paid for the cost for initial training and the supply of pilots has been the US Military, or out of pocket by pilots themselves. Due to companies having an inexhaustible supply of trained pilots, their has been no incentive to retain, actually its been the opposite. In this latter situation collective bargaining has been the only way pilots could provide reasonable work conditions and wages.

gloopy

Its a breath of fresh air to see anyone cover the massive and future devistating "college bubble" in any context. Ironically its not just an issue for the up and coming generation; while everyone blames medical costs, insane college expenses for mostly zero ROI "degrees" for people's children is a major, maybe even the single biggest, expense and reason for perpetually being on such a weak foundation for negotiations as well as a never-ending inability to retire. The inability to walk away and the general predisposition to take the deal no matter what has helped devistate the profession to a fraction of what it once was not even that long ago. What used to be third homes and speedboats is now the unquestioned barfing of 6 figures at kids to extend their childhood into their late 20's so they can be told to read library books.

As bad as the "pilot supply" is sometimes, the supply of college graduates in all but a few fields is literally boiling over onto the floor. If you're into data crunching, it would be nice to see a comparison of the rise in average incomes juxtaposed with the rise in housing prices for that bubble, then do the same for the insane and completely unwarranted costs of "education" (and healthcare for that matter). Student debt already exceeds credit card/consumer debt. This bubble will rival or exceed the housing bubble because it will effect so many people, banks and entrenched institutions. And no one on earth will squeal as loud for a bailout like self entitled academia will.

I think its pretty funny how everyone squeals about the 1500 hour rule though. The profession will always always always have more than enough allure and more than enough "bait" at the top end (Paris, First Class, International) to entice enough new pilots to get into the field especially when things start moving due to retirements. While big programs might be able to reduce the mins to around 800-1000, the realistic time it takes to CFI or whatever for 500 hours (again, once things start moving) is nothing compared to not having to spend that extra 100G on a big name degree for a poverty level job with sketchy odds of reaching the brass ring. If future pilots don't figure that out, their financers will.

MatthewAMEL

U.S. pilots find high demand, high pay overseas – This Just In - CNN.com Blogs

U.S. pilots find high demand, high pay overseas

The pilot of the Nigerian jetliner that crashed in Lagos, the country's largest city, on Sunday was an American, said Oscar Wason, Dana Air's director of operations, on Monday.

Wason did not identify the pilot by name or hometown, but he is among a legion of U.S. pilots now captaining jets for foreign airlines, said Kit Darby, an aviation consultant in Peachtree City, Georgia.

"A lot of U.S. pilots are working overseas, more than ever before," Darby said. "It's pretty common."

Darby said that as airlines have consolidated in the U.S., the job market for experienced airline captains has become "stagnant." Experienced captains are losing seniority, and it may take them 10 to 20 years to get a captain's position back, he said.

So they turn overseas, where aviation is expanding and there is a clear need for the experience the Americans bring. They typically end up captaining jetliners with co-pilots and crew who are from their host countries or from other countries where aviation professionals are less experienced.

The co-pilot of the Dana Air MD-83 that crashed Sunday was from India and the flight engineer from Indonesia, Wason said.

"It's a challenging position, half trainer and half pilot," Darby said of captaining a foreign-flagged airliner. But the rewards can be substantial.

Americans signing on to pilot jetliners in the Middle East, China and India can make well over $100,000 a year, plus add-ons like housing, according to Darby.

He said a pilot working in Africa would probably make a bit less than those working in Asia or the Mideast but would still do well.

"The big deals come with the captain's seat," he said.

The Dana Air MD-83 that crashed Sunday is a fairly new plane by African standards and would probably provide a well-paying post to a captain, Darby said.

American pilots looking to work overseas may negotiate their own deals or be matched up with a foreign carrier through a recruitment service, he said.

Wasinc International is one of those services. The company's website currently lists 34 pilot positions with carriers in China.

For instance, Air China is hiring captains for Airbus A330 aircraft, and it will train. Pay is $4,000 a month during training and then $11,000 a month plus a $4,000 monthly living allowance once training is completed, according to the Wasinc ad.

The website BestAviation.net lists 101 pilot or first officer jobs in locations including China, Lithuania, Indonesia, Mauritania and South Korea.

In a report from February, Bloomberg said airlines in China will be hiring 16,000 pilots in the next three years, according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

Shen Wei, a recruiter for China's Spring Air, told Bloomberg that China was a strong market for U.S. pilots.

“Everyone is facing a pilot shortage,” he's quoted as saying. “Foreign pilots are the quickest option.”

mike734

Well it was probably the Flight Engineers fault. He shouldn't have even been there.

HalinTexas

Outside the US an "engineer" is a mechanic. Therefore, this "flight engineer" was probably a ride-along mechanic.

At a couple of companies in China, there is a "radio operator" onboard 737s and Airbii.

freightpusher

Unicorns and rainbows guys. Anyone who has spent a few years flying the line knows all too well mgmt predictions, firm orders, options etc mean 0 until that aircraft is actually parked at a gate. Even then you don't account for aircraft being returned from lease. I can say at JetBlue they make a big deal when a new delivery arrives but you never hear about lease returns (which happen all the time).

I appreciate the op's attempt but these numbers are completely misleading.

squaretail

ehhh... Beg to differ. The numbers are not misleading. I think if you read the fine print, you will see the admitted limitations inherent in the analysis.

If you were in a corporate flight department, you might be paying Concklin & de Decker for analyisis yearly or biannually --- paying for a quarterly subscription to Aircraft Bluenook and paying NBAA for analytical information. We are lucky that soneone has done all of this free. Career sites would charge a fortune!

Next year... or next quarter, this could all be different. But, if you head out the door today to make a significant life decision, like where to work, you would want to consider the very factors in those charts and graphs. I, for one, am grateful for the leg-work!

TeddyKGB

Just a hiring wave if and when it eventually hits. The Legacy Air Lines are not down "right sizing" and will continue to cut capacity. I wouldn't hold my breath for any pilot shortage. Yes there will be movement from the regionals to the majors but the pipeline will always be full of qualified applicants.

Senior Skipper

Some people don't see the difference between movement and a pilot shortage. It's a pretty good time to be a regional CA or senior FO right now. If you've been in the game less than 2 years, you probably won't see a major for a while.

thrust

This.

There are going to be A LOT of folks fleeing active duty USAF over the next 5-10 years. It will be interesting to see if the majors give preference to military guys, as they have in the past.