Hormuz impacts
 

Thinking about cancelling the AE with what’s going on in the world?

Are you thinking about cancelling or did you hear company thinking about cancelling?

I just feel like they’re pretty quick to get the mid bid bout and this just feels delayed and things may be going on behind the scenes. I hope I’m wrong but who knows.

waaaayyyyyy too early to pull that plug. don't forget, Delta isn't that nimble and forward looking. Reactive is more their style the last few years.

age 67 about to pass?

I'm sure contingency plans are being made, but we're a data-driven company and there's little data. I'd guess some of the international markets will be affected and that'll show up in forward bookings. It could just be that it moves the booking curve in closer as people don't want to commit to that summer trip to Europe until it gets closer. IF there's a broad economic slowdown, that'd translate into reduced revenue across all segments, but that's a second order effect, and it could be months before it manifests. The direct impact will be higher jet fuel prices, but this shock looks a lot like the invasion of Ukraine did. Higher jet fuel prices drove up ticket prices which moved us into a less profitable part of the demand curve, but it's a matter of LESS profits; not losing money. Those contingency plans probably include accelerating the retirement of 717s & 757s in favor of higher utilization rates on more fuel efficient airplanes. It doesn't make sense to think about the 767 the same way because its replacements are only more fuel efficient on a seat-mile basis. If we can't fill more seats than the 763 has, the 339's better CASM is neutralized by lower load factor.

Small monthly bids allow course corrections along the way. Necessary adjustments can be accomplished through attrition and smaller future bids. This is 1/12 th of the year vs 1/3. The April bid will be where any adjustments are made.

I believe we are in the verge of an energy crisis not seen since the 1970s when Nixon directed Americans to set their thermostats to 65-68 degrees to conserve energy. This could very well be a Black Swan.

I expect significant hikes to airfares in the coming months and also significant schedule cuts after demand falls off, particularly international flights and West Coast domestic flights due to record crack spreads for Diesel and Jet A

Maybe. Maybe not. Way too early to tell what a week will hold, much less a couple of months, IMO.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed and with it 20% of the world's Oil supply not to mention LNG and Fertilizer supplies.

US intelligence states the IRGC remains in firm control of power for the forsee future

The Iranians have started mining the Strait

The US Navy, despite Trump promising Naval escorts, has not had one ship attempt to cross the Strait as it would like lead to a US Warship on fire for the world to see.

IMO it's not too early to see where this is going. It's either an Energy Crisis or the greatest TACO yet and hope the Iranians forgive for the relentless bombing of their country along with the leadership that were killed