Since another website and a guy named stlgph and panamair, they posted their notes from yesterday morning and I just tried to put them together:
Financial
- 4th quarter profit margin outlook boosted on increase of fares
- Q4 profit sharing expense expected to be $75m
- expects 2011 profit of $800 million
- expects full profit in 2011
- $375m CapEx in Q4, including the $100m investment in GOL- fuel costs rose 30% this year
- expects $150-$200m savings in smaller jets in coming years
- 2012 non-fuel unit cost increases (est. up 2 to 4%) attributed to:
- Wage cost harmonization, industry standard rates, pension (low interest rates, etc.)
- LGA terminal renovation costs: connector between Terminals C and D, renovation of Terminal C (start March 2012)
- ATL Terminal F (ATL capacity to be flat year-over-year)
- Capacity reduction (fixed cost/overhead absorption)
Network & Revenue Related
- will continue to 2/3% network cuts
- International Travel
- lost money on Europe this year, expects profit return in 2012
- int'l. travel demand falls 7.4% for Delta, above industry rate of 3%
- Latin America travel demand rising, outperforming Atlantic/Pacific
- Japan is 10% of revenue
- Japan: $100m in revenue benefit anticipated for 2012 due to market recovery
- Looking to further develop alliance(s) with MU and CZ. DL's current slot portfolio at PEK and PVG does not allow for meaningful domestic connections to MU and CZ flights.
- No big new international markets for 2012. Fine-tuning and optimizing what's there now.
- Latin America growth is mostly coming from upgauging. North America - slow but positive growth and good earnings momentum. Europe - anticipating recession next year so planning accordingly (with capacity cuts in the JV)
- Interesting slide about RASM: DL vs industry average Q3 2007 vs Q3 2011:
- Domestic: Was 104%, now 105%
- Transatlantic: Was 93%, now 100%
- Transpacific: Was 98%, now 106%
- Latin: Was 87%; now 88%
- Overall System: Was 100%; now 102%
- About 20-25% of revenue base is from 'managed' corporate traffic. Corp. traffic is down 10-15% relative to the peak of 2007-2008. Domestic is above and ahead of 2008 because of reduced capacity, better product, merger benefits. Premium international is still 10-15% below 2008.
- Bookings Up
-19% Financial Services (last 4 wks booked revenue up 19% Y-O-Y)
-17% Manufacturing (up 10% Y-O-Y)
-14% Technology (up 16% Y-O-Y)
- 9% Health Care (up 20% Y-O-Y)
- 7% Auto (up 16% Y-O-Y)
- 3% Banking (up 5% Y-O-Y)
- DAL sees opportunities in AMR restructuring
- Delta sees "lots of opportunities" in markets AirTran dropped
- Delta execs see AirTran as "less aggressive" than usual
- New York New York
- NYC aviation market is worth $14 billion in total
- LGA slot swap: beef up existing markets with some new markets. 100 new flights to 29 new destinations (I'm sure some of these destinations will be 'new' to DL, but were formerly served by US anyway). Expect >$100m investment in facilities
- NYC: given DL's capacity in NY, should really be getting an additional $200m in revenues. Gap closing (used to be around $300-$350m gap). DL's NY market share grown 3.5 pts from 2009 to 2011, which translates to about a $100m gain. Share gain in primary business markets has been bigger. Brand awareness of DL in NYC now is highest it has been.
- NYC travel market as a whole is $14bn; $8bn is domestic.
- Paid load factor in F (domestic) has risen to 30%; First Class upsells help
- 84% of 160 million annual passengers check in digitally
- Delta.com
- Bookings up at Delta.Com by 4%
- More than 1 million people a day visit Delta.com
- 84% of DL pax check in digitally now. Mobile to account for 10% of check-ins in 2012. Revenues generated through booking on delta.com = >$8 billion in 2011.
- delta.com still on antiquated platform; new platform to debut in phases, starting in April 2012.
- New 4-year agreement with AMEX for pre-purchase of miles: $675m to Delta every December for four years interest-free (with "payback" to AMEX in peak summer every year) will help smooth out cash flow during the year (cash to Delta at start of the weak winter period).
Other
- DAL expects more industry consolidation
Employees
- Pilot deal expected by end of 2012
- Airport/reservations staff are now only 60% full-time postions and FA temp leave programs helps airline with huge capacity differential between summer peak and winter lows
- Flight attendants: strategy is for US-based FAs to do international flying, that's why hiring of language FAs continues. PMNW foreign-based FAs - numbers decreasing - didn't say whether will keep or eliminate them.
- Newk bid to the 7ER.
AIRLINE
), and it may be a question we all have to ponder in the near future.
12-22-2020
