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Old 07-01-2015, 05:24 AM
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Default Projected Delta Profits (2016-2018)

ok just came from the SEA road show , the financial expert on the panel was asked projected profit for delta for the next 3 years ,
are you ready for this, plus it came from the MEC table, you know the guy at the end who said nothing and is always looking at his PC, you should of seen the faces at the rest of the table
2016 5.5B
2017 6-8B
2018 7-10B
how long is our contract, I am willing to take the chance , and in three years we can negotiate a new plan
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Old 07-01-2015, 07:28 AM
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This makes the TA all the more bizarre. We have leverage like never before. ***.
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Old 07-01-2015, 08:17 AM
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So if Delta made 10B in profit in 2018 what would the payout be for us?
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Old 07-01-2015, 08:40 AM
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wild guess?.....30%

After deliberate reflection, I cannot accept placing yet even greater burden on delta, and confronting our beleaguered and under compensated leadership with the added difficulty of meeting the outrageously more expensive pilot payroll that this ta represents.

So Im doing the right thing for our management, standing pat, and voting to not make their job any more difficult that it currently is..........You are welcome guys....
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted by BobZ View Post
wild guess?.....30%

After deliberate reflection, I cannot accept placing yet even greater burden on delta, and confronting our beleaguered and under compensated leadership with the added difficulty of meeting the outrageously more expensive pilot payroll that this ta represents.

So Im doing the right thing for our management, standing pat, and voting to not make their job any more difficult that it currently is..........You are welcome guys....
BobZ. Company man!

Carl
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
ok just came from the SEA road show , the financial expert on the panel was asked projected profit for delta for the next 3 years ,
are you ready for this, plus it came from the MEC table, you know the guy at the end who said nothing and is always looking at his PC, you should of seen the faces at the rest of the table
2016 5.5B
2017 6-8B
2018 7-10B
how long is our contract, I am willing to take the chance , and in three years we can negotiate a new plan
Thanks Jerry,

I think it's tough to reconcile how much we might make, and how much they are paying shareholders, with how much they want to invest in us. I'm not happy about it, and neither are you.

As long as you don't double-count the pay increase, and the PS monetization, of course, both the TA and current contract capture our share of profits. The upside is if things don't work out as planned, and PTIX < $6B, we get a better deal under the TA. The downside is that we are allowing the PTIX definition to be changed so we're giving up a piece permanently, against an insurance policy on the lower end of profitability.

Does that sum it up accurately?
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Sink r8 View Post
Thanks Jerry,

I think it's tough to reconcile how much we might make, and how much they are paying shareholders, with how much they want to invest in us. I'm not happy about it, and neither are you.

As long as you don't double-count the pay increase, and the PS monetization, of course, both the TA and current contract capture our share of profits. The upside is if things don't work out as planned, and PTIX < $6B, we get a better deal under the TA. The downside is that we are allowing the PTIX definition to be changed so we're giving up a piece permanently, against an insurance policy on the lower end of profitability.

Does that sum it up accurately?
I like it better when you say what "it" is...

Instead of saying:

The downside is that we are allowing the PTIX definition to be changed...

Just say:

In 2017, PTIX is calculated after management compensation and bonuses.


I mean, if you're gonna slap us in the face, at least have the decency to let us see it coming.


And the hits just keep on rolling...
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Old 07-01-2015, 09:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Sink r8 View Post
Thanks Jerry,

I think it's tough to reconcile how much we might make, and how much they are paying shareholders, with how much they want to invest in us. I'm not happy about it, and neither are you.

As long as you don't double-count the pay increase, and the PS monetization, of course, both the TA and current contract capture our share of profits. The upside is if things don't work out as planned, and PTIX < $6B, we get a better deal under the TA. The downside is that we are allowing the PTIX definition to be changed so we're giving up a piece permanently, against an insurance policy on the lower end of profitability.

Does that sum it up accurately?
With the projected profit numbers, which I would guess are not far off, why would would we settle for the concessions in this contract? We cannot live in fear of a Black Swan event. If we did, none of us would ever get out of bed...

Denny
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by newKnow View Post
I like it better when you say what "it" is...

Instead of saying:

The downside is that we are allowing the PTIX definition to be changed...

Just say:

In 2017, PTIX is calculated after management compensation and bonuses.


I mean, if you're gonna slap us in the face, at least have the decency to let us see it coming.


And the hits just keep on rolling...
I wasn't trying to sugar-coat it, I assumed we all know what PTIX change they're after. That's the downside.
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Old 07-01-2015, 10:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Denny Crane View Post
With the projected profit numbers, which I would guess are not far off, why would would we settle for the concessions in this contract? We cannot live in fear of a Black Swan event. If we did, none of us would ever get out of bed...
Except for the PTIX definition change, the PS isn't lost, it's monetized. So you are merely insured against a black swan event, not letting the fear run your life. And you're not foregoing PS by taking the TA either, so the up-side is protected. Frankly, as long as you're not being duped by double-counting, the PS monetization isn't that great of an issue. The only irritant is the PTIX definition change.

Don't get me wrong: you can still conclude that the overall value is wrong, but it's pretty difficult to make the case that shifting the lower end of PS, for a fixed value, is a deal-breaker.

My concern in discussing the PS was always a cap. I'm told that the company's initial scheme for a PS change was rather colorful and exciting. Not for us. Under new negotiations, who knows what could happen?
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