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-   -   Be ready for it, the Sky won't fall (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/delta/89087-ready-sky-wont-fall.html)

notEnuf 07-01-2015 07:13 PM

DAL Analyst Estimates - Delta Air Lines Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch

Check out the sentiment

They all know the numbers coming out.

I should have shorted today but that's tough to do on the west coast. The market closes too early.

gloopy 07-02-2015 07:01 AM

Well if the bottom is about to fall out then we really need to stick with C2012.

Work rules are way harder to get back than pay, and pay is the first to fall during concessions. How dumb would we look if we traded PS for pay, then gave up pay, and never got the PS back even when good times returned? Plus going into a down cycle with significant staffing efficiencies that requires fewer pilots.

Pilotfo64 07-02-2015 02:53 PM

Still predicting 7-10 billion in profits in 2018.

notEnuf 07-02-2015 04:30 PM


Originally Posted by Sink r8 (Post 1920167)
The pre-announcement timing certainly feels suspicious.

But... If fear-mongering isn't cool, how is artificial-confidence mongering OK?

What? I don't know a single pilot that hasn't been skeptical for oh, I'd say a decade or so. A lost decade. They know now is the right time to hold out for more. Can you build artificial-confidence in a group that is jaded from strikes, furloughs, and excessive years at the regionals (the same decade, see above) or those on their 3rd or more airline?

OK. I'll try. GO GET UM BOYS! (trumpets...) CHARGE!

Sink r8 07-02-2015 06:35 PM


Originally Posted by notEnuf (Post 1920925)
What? I don't know a single pilot that hasn't been skeptical for oh, I'd say a decade or so. A lost decade. They know now is the right time to hold out for more. Can you build artificial-confidence in a group that is jaded from strikes, furloughs, and excessive years at the regionals (the same decade, see above) or those on their 3rd or more airline?

OK. I'll try. GO GET UM BOYS! (trumpets...) CHARGE!

Those things bring you confidence that you can survive. I remember being humbled by my furlough, and proud of my family's resilience, but it wasn't without a cost. So jaded by furlough? Hardly.

Most of this group has never been permitted to be jaded by a strike, or a lockout. However, we've been anything but jaded by 9/11, LOA46, oil at $140, CH11, 1113, LOA51, the loss of the pension, the gigantic cluster-foque just to get a JCBA agreement the second time around (after losing value through infighting and indecision), and the merger, to the point where everyone knows the economic environment is a bit, well, fickle, and cyclical.

This thread is about pre-dismissing the very second-quarter results no-voters were saying were being deliberately withheld. It's not really a great argument.

I'm not saying the end of the world is near, but don't accuse people of selling fear, while looking at the world through rose-colored crystal balls, and selling "everything will be fine". My bank doesn't accept "everything will be fine" as a form of payment.

Denny Crane 07-02-2015 06:41 PM

Sooooooo the whole point of this is that the company thought they would make a mint over the TA duration but now it will only be "half" a mint?

Denny

Sink r8 07-02-2015 06:54 PM


Originally Posted by Denny Crane (Post 1921005)
Sooooooo the whole point of this is that the company thought they would make a mint over the TA duration but now it will only be "half" a mint?

No. I have no idea if the company will or will not make a mint, and neither does anyone else here. I'm willing to stipulate Delta will probably be fine, and we're very likely to sit here, and watch billions being sent to the shareholders, +/- $1.1B.

My point was about trying to suppress data that doesn't fit one's personal viewpoint. This thread is about pre-ignoring the pre-announced quarterly results.

notEnuf 07-02-2015 08:57 PM


Originally Posted by Sink r8 (Post 1920995)
Those things bring you confidence that you can survive. I remember being humbled by my furlough, and proud of my family's resilience, but it wasn't without a cost. So jaded by furlough? Hardly.

Most of this group has never been permitted to be jaded by a strike, or a lockout. However, we've been anything but jaded by 9/11, LOA46, oil at $140, CH11, 1113, LOA51, the loss of the pension, the gigantic cluster-foque just to get a JCBA agreement the second time around (after losing value through infighting and indecision), and the merger, to the point where everyone knows the economic environment is a bit, well, fickle, and cyclical.

This thread is about pre-dismissing the very second-quarter results no-voters were saying were being deliberately withheld. It's not really a great argument.

I'm not saying the end of the world is near, but don't accuse people of selling fear, while looking at the world through rose-colored crystal balls, and selling "everything will be fine". My bank doesn't accept "everything will be fine" as a form of payment.

Fine, jaded may have been a poor choice of words. How about battle hardened?

Either way heres the facts:

http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_downlo...-June-2015.pdf

Here's the commentary:

http://ir.delta.com/files/doc_downlo...uly-2-2015.pdf

If you prefer not to post the pace of accumulation vs last year and total set aside for profit sharing, I will. I will give you time to review. This is a very healthy company and does not require concessions. It can afford to do better by its pilots.

The point of the thread is to focus on facts and TA language not spin. If this would have been unforeseen the fear-mongering would have been on tilt. Pre-announcements are usually done to soften the blow so I assumed bad news, not bankruptcy bad but disappointing. I had no insider knowledge of what the numbers would be just an educated guess. The company prefers to get the headline by surprising with good news. It turns out the pre-announcement wasn't that bad the softness was accounted for, but it was a tactic. The preparation of the group must stem from my job skills.

sailingfun 07-03-2015 03:40 AM


Originally Posted by Sink r8 (Post 1921018)
No. I have no idea if the company will or will not make a mint, and neither does anyone else here. I'm willing to stipulate Delta will probably be fine, and we're very likely to sit here, and watch billions being sent to the shareholders, +/- $1.1B.

My point was about trying to suppress data that doesn't fit one's personal viewpoint. This thread is about pre-ignoring the pre-announced quarterly results.

I am confused, I thought the forum stated there was a conspiracy to get the vote done before the results. Then they do a preview and the forum states there is a conspiracy to release the results before the vote.

orvil 07-03-2015 03:51 AM


Originally Posted by sailingfun (Post 1921133)
I am confused, I thought the forum stated there was a conspiracy to get the vote done before the results. Then they do a preview and the forum states there is a conspiracy to release the results before the vote.

Let me simplify that for you.

It's a conspiracy.


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