iahflyr

I've always been a big fan of slightly higher pay rates and taking a cut to our current profit sharing. Right now, airlines are making more money than they ever have, but I believe you're delirious if you believe this will continue. The article below is just another example of how fares will keep coming down until profits (or losses) get back to normal.

Everything you need to know about the big changes coming to Newark airport

In the fall, the federal government will lift the cap on the number of hourly takeoffs and landings at Newark-Liberty International Airport.

The reclassification, from a Level 3 airport to a Level 2 facility, will open up Newark to more carriers — potentially low-cost airlines — that were previously kept out by Newark's flight restrictions.

JetBlue has already jumped onboard, announcing Thursday it would add six roundtrip flights to Florida, and others may soon follow suit.

But what will it mean for fliers? Cheaper fares? More flight options? Or could it lead to longer lines and departure delays?

First, it's important to understand what the changes mean.

What are airport levels?
Airlines pay for takeoff and landing slots at airports. The guidelines for allocating those slots are set by an organization called the International Air Transport Association, a trade group made up of about 260 airlines.

The IATA breaks down airport designations like this in its Worldwide Slot Guidelines:

Level 1: Airports where the capacity of the airport infrastructure is generally adequate to meet the demands of airport users at all times.
Level 2: Airports where there is potential for congestion during some periods of the day, week, or season which can be resolved by schedule adjustments mutually agreed between the airlines and facilitator. A facilitator is appointed to facilitate the planned operations of airlines using or planning to use the airport.
Level 3: Airports where capacity providers have not developed sufficient infrastructure, or where governments have imposed conditions that make it impossible to meet demand. A coordinator is appointed to allocate slots to airlines and other aircraft operators using or planning to use the airport as a means of managing the declared capacity.
Newark was a Level 3 airport and was restricted to 81 slots per hour. It's moving to a Level 2 in the fall, meaning those restrictions will be lifted.

Other Level 2 airports in the United States are located in Chicago, Los Angeles, Orlando and San Francisco.

Will ticket prices drop?
The FAA says so.

Officials say they believe the reclassification will increase competition at the airport, where United accounts for more than 70 percent of flights.

While JetBlue didn't specify pricing for its added flights, its vice president of network planning, Dave Clark, said the airlines will bring "more choice and more lower fares" to Newark.

"This will be very good for New Jersey," he said.

"Lifting arbitrary slot restrictions means greater competition at our airports and lower prices for passengers," said Joe Sitt of Global Gateway Alliance, an advocacy group.

But Douglas Kidd, executive director at the National Association of Airline Passengers, disagrees.

"It remains to be seen what effect, if any, increased competition will have on ticket prices," said Kidd. "The real benefit to passengers, I expect, will be a great choice of flights and destinations, as United apparently has not made the fullest use of the slots they have. "

In addition to JetBlue, two low-cost carriers, Spirit and Alaska airlines, have both told NJ Advance Media that they are considering putting in for additional service at Newark.

What about the lines?
Experts say that it may take longer to get through security, but the TSA remains optimistic.

In March, the TSA told fliers to make sure they arrive two hours before a domestic flight and three hours before an international flight because officials expected delays. Since then, there have a been a number of reports of screening lines snaking through terminals, causing longer than normal wait times.

"It's still six months out and we will work closely with airlines and partners to prepare," said Mike McCarthy, a spokesman for the TSA.

Photos: Behind the scenes at United
Photos: Behind the scenes at United
A behind the scenes look at United Airlines located in Terminal C, Newark Liberty International Airport. Newark, NJ 7/29/15 (Robert Sciarrino | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com)

Passenger advocacy groups aren't as optimistic.

Paul Hudson, the president of FlyersRights.org, the largest airline passenger advocacy group in the country, told NJ Advance Media "there's going be delays."

"There's only so much in the [TSA] budget and people available," he said.

"There is room for increased capacity, but the FAA and TSA have to make smart decisions so delays and security lines don't get even worse," said Sitt said, of Global Gateway Alliance.

Will there be more flight delays?
Possibly, according to experts.

The reclassification will remove the current cap of 81 flights per hour at Newark, which was put in place in 2008 to decrease delays, an issue the FAA said the airport has improved.

Global Gateway Alliance calls these caps arbitrary and wants to remove them from LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy airports as well, though Hudson said "delays will probably get worse."

"The risk is that were going to have more congestion [in air]," Hudson said. Hudson said that the airlines should utilize larger planes and reduce the number of flights.

The New York City skies are a "big bottleneck" for flights, he said.

The FAA hasn't said what increase in flights per hour, if any, it expects after the reclassification. Air travel rose 5 percent year-over-year in 2015.

What about the noise and pollution?
"More volume equates to more noise and pollution," Rover Belzer of the NJ Coalition Against Aircraft Noise. "We expect more noise because of the designation."

The FAA expects an increase in pollution, but said it will have limited effect on the environment.

Belzer, who has also asked for details from the FAA on expected volume, told NJ Advance Media that the amount of noise and pollution will ultimately depend on the total number of flights at the airport.

gzsg

Fares are going to only increase.

United is dead set on reducing capacity.

There is a shortage of housing in the United States. Housing is the final leg of the recovery.

Delta is part of one of the strongest oligopolies in the History of the United States. They will be extremely profitable. Lowering profit shairng is self funding pure and simple.

IMO our JV partners will make over $10 Billion in profits in the next 5 years.

Delta will receive $4.9 Billion to pass along to the Delta pilots via profit sharing at the 20% rate.

We deserve hourly rates increases without having to self fund. Believing our executives line that we can trade profit sharing for hourly increases is just a game.

I.e. We are going to cancel the 190s if you vote this TA down!!!

Just nonsense to manipulate.

Don't fall for this trick.

Taking concessions during record profits is a fail.

BobZ

Go ahead.... just keep trading it away to 'get' something.

? what are you gonna do.... when you run out of stuff to trade?

JamesBond

12 minutes to hijack the thread. Well done. Well done indeed.

forgot to bid

Are flights not full?

Denny Crane

Sorry, don't see the hijack part. IMO, the thread starter's premise is to trade PS for a small pay increase and he is providing that story to backup his argument. The replies are in response to this premise...

Put me down as one who is unwilling to trade PS for a pay raise. My view of PS is that it is a bonus in the good times and it's also a good way to help the company in bad times without having to amend our contract.

Denny

Tummy

I flew a 767 JFK-LHR last month with 82 people on board. Maybe relevant. Maybe not.

I completely agree. I have a BA in Economics (granted I haven't used it professionally), and I can't understand why the company would want to decrease profit sharing. It aligns the employees' goals with management's goals in a harmonious way. What do I know? I just push buttons and talk on the radio.

redblueskies

Because like work rules, once PS is gone it's gone forever.

Example: This contract cycle they agree to give us United +1% or whatever, then we agree to trade x amount of PS for an equivalent amount of hourly rates above that. An even trade right? For the duration of the contract, yes, but then everyone has leapfrogged us in pay and we negotiate off their rates and that PS is gone like it never existed.

Next contract cycle they'll want to do the same and the previous PS trade will be forgotten like it never happened. Just like the PS we already traded away is out of the equation totally at this point.

If you understand what I'm saying I think you'll agree ANY give in PS is a bad idea. I urge that to my reps and suggest you do the same.

Tummy

We agree. I think any give in PS is a bad idea.

Timbo

There is only ONE reason management wants us to trade away some of our profit sharing, and it's NOT because they think future profits will be smaller. If that were the case, they would be fine with us keeping it as is.

But they KNOW profits are going to go up, even more than the $10 Billion they are forecasting for 2016, as they continue to invest in outside carriers all around the world.

Our only hedge against them outsourcing our international flying jobs to all the other JV Partners is keeping our profit sharing as is.

Here's an accounting reason they would like to trade our next pay raise for profit sharing: Taxes.

If instead of giving us say, $1 Billion in profit sharing, they gave us a $1 Billion pay raise, they would pay income taxes on $1 Billion -less- profit.

We see it as a wash, either way we get $1 Billion, but if it's profit, they have to pay income tax on it first, then give it to us too. The bankruptcy income tax write offs are about to expire, at a time when the company is making unheard of profits, so you know they are trying to limit their next income tax bill.