Narrowing the carriers down?
 

It seems to be no mystery that Delta is going to reduce the number of regional carriers. 9E will obviously be one they will keep, but who do you think they will chop? Interested to hear thoughts and rumors and maybe even some facts...

I would be amazed if TSH (TSA, GoJet, and Compass) finished out 2019 with no changes. Once they are gone, or at least done with Delta flying, there are three DCI carriers remaining. Who gets those 700’s and 175’s is the big question in my mind. Do the pilots and operating certificates come too? Do they go to the obvious places (700’s to 9E, 175’s to YX) or is DAL still pushing for both airframes at each of the three DCI carriers. How is the flying distributed? Does 9E become an east coast airline, leaving the entire west to OO, or is the plan to have all three cover the entire US?

These are my questions, probably Delta’s too. We will all know for certain by next.... no, we won’t know until we are actually flying the planes on the routes.

Take a look inside a Gojet CRJ next chance you get. They maintain them like Delta is going to cancel their contract tomorrow and they don't want to spend money for another regionals benefit. They're airworthy but ratty.

So maybe Delta replaces them with 900 lites, now that Bombardier is only making one airliner... I’ll bet they can get a screaming deal on those right now!

If any/all of those TSH airlines loses the Delta flying, I would think they would go out of business.

I would also be surprised if the pilots come too. Wouldn't make sense to be doing all this hiring if they were.

If JF email is correct about our staffing target we could take all the delta owned GoJets planes as fast as they can be put on the certificate and not need another pilot.

I would say that is the plan - question is, how fast can those 700’s make it through conformity, and at what cost? We were supposed to get more than 3 700’s from EV...

A gander at the YX forums shows them pretty well staffed too...
I assume that MQ could pretty easily absorb the AA owned 175’s from CP.

UA just bought 25 175’s, presumably to replace the G7 planes.

I haven’t given much thought to the 145’s operated by AX...

I just don’t see TSH lasting too much longer.

The Gojet scope is very weak. The only coverage they have if United ends its CPA and Delta takes the CRJs back is the pilots get to merge in to the TSA seniority list and keep their longevity.

Republic wanted to buy Compass real bad earlier this year. The two airlines fit together easily. Aircraft conformity and crew training wouldn't be as big of a deal as other mergers we've seen in the past. I see that being a merger.

That leaves TSA. Old and outdated but I'm sure someone would pick up the scraps.

We were never supposed to get more than 3 700's from EV, because only 3 are owned by DL. The remainder are/were owned by OO. The CR7 is reaching the end at DL, probably only long term kept by OO to do ASE flying.

I would expect YX to get the 175's from CPZ, moved to NYC, allowing OO to take their ball and go home. Then the 700's move over to eventually be replaced by CR9SC/Lite, whatever its called.

It’s much cheaper to hire and train than integrate another group.

DAL has changed their regional plan twice already during the lifespan of this thread

Narrowing the carriers down?
 

^^^This!^^^

This vacancy, which his most recent memo is attached to, does not come close to adhering with the staffing projections so dont believe a word of it

Not to mention the morale killer another merger of lists would be here.

It is also no secret that Delta wants control of their own brand which is mostly controllable with Endeavor. RJs are a necessary evil for now. Ed recently stated that he is “happy with the amount of RJ flying Delta has.”

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-delta-air-ceo/delta-air-lines-happy-with-pilot-contract-rules-for-regional-flights-ceo-idUSKCN1N02WB

The A220/717 combo is going to be a big deal once it’s all said and done with respect to large RJ flying replacements. Delta pilots will not be giving an inch of SCOPE in upcoming negotiations.

At the same time, given that DGS is being sold and Monroe Energy is being shopped, maybe 9E is being shopped too?

I’ve been overly optimistic in the past. Almost to the point of where I could be called a koolaid drinker. I’ve bought their sales pitch hook line and sinker. But 5 years of empty promises leads me to believe that maybe I’m being had. I hope I’m wrong, but now is the time for Delta to follow through on something.

I bet it'll be fun working with DGS crews who have just learned that their travel benefits have an expiration date. It's hard enough to hire ground crews in some outstations. What's going to keep folks from bailing to other ramp operations that do offer flight benefits? It's not like the pay or the hours are keeping them there.

Nah probably not right now, if they start cutting budgets, bring on a RIF, scale back on expenditures, and start screaming about cutting back on fuel use - then we are being prepped for a sale and should be concerned.

They do this with the ground crews every few years.

They all get rehired at a “new” company at 1rst year pay and benefits.

Still owned by Delta in the end.

Unfortunately they treat Regional airlines in a similar fashion.

I been bought by Delta.

I been sold by Delta.

I been fired by Delta.

Life goes on.

You move 16 tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt...

I can snap my fingers but i can't remember all the words. Google to the rescue.

Linda put it best.....;)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ScOpzm-BYX4

Those GTF engines are optimized for long range cruise, not short RJ flights. Those long flights are already scoped out, and regionals can only do so many. The A220 will be a growth airplane, not an RJ replacement like the 717. Delta already has 100 less RJ's than AA/UA.

A lot of the A220 flying may be new, but at least one route published is currently served by an RJ.

More than one of them is currently served by an RJ. I understand that it is going to be a growth airplane, and as it grows and we close LAX 717 base, bringing those planes back east, guess what happens? More RJ flying comes back in house via the 717.

Of course, the 717 will be focused into ATL just like the 88 has been. But do you think Delta is going to park RJs (outside of some 50 seaters), no. They’ll still fly somewhere, hopefully in regional routes

It won't be there for long probably, the A220 is best on routes like FNT-LAS or CLT-PDX, etc. Flights that would be served by an RJ, if they had that kind of range. Both the 717 and the RJs, are cheaper on the current routes they fly, than the A220.

Citation definitely needed as I understand the A220 has the lowest cost per seat mile of any aircraft in the fleet throughout its range. If that's the case the only way an RJ would be cheaper would be if the route doesn't support the number of seats.

No worries. The desert birds will be back after the economic downturn next year.

Long live crazy 8s!

Except in most cases a 900 is cheaper than a 200 because of the much better climb and minimal cruise burn difference plus you know that 50% seating increase. The 200 really only makes sense on short routes that can't fill more than 60 seats (yes I know seating capacities)

200’s are mostly paid for at most airlines now... so they are super cheap. That 900 payment negates any savings over a 200 right now...

It's a happy talking point, but I think the parking of 200s implies otherwise.

How many have we parked?

Its about dual class cabin, not fuel burn.

How many does 9E still have? I'm more talking industry wide but 9E doesn't have as many as they used to either.

I do agree that the dual class cabin is a big component, but I don't think it's really all of it either. Their cost per seat mile is up there, the big advantage is on routes that don't support anything larger. The effective CASM for a 76 jet is a bit higher on routes that only support 40-50 passengers on a flight than if it was full.