Flow at 12 Years
 

Latest stats have a seniority date of right about 12 years for the latest flows to AA. That's a while to wait it out at a regional. Probably be faster to go the LCC then the major route vs. hanging around Envoy for 12 years.

I know this is just a troll post to aggrevate us envoy peeps. However, it's all about where you want to put your money. Staying at envoy is like investing in bonds. Low rate of return but predictable. Going to an LCC is like investing in stocks. Could jump to a major early and get a huge return, could be stuck at the LCC for a while and get a decent gain because yeah you'll make decent money, or could go into bankruptcy and have to start all over. Everyone should be trying to get to a major, but a LCC is kind of a gamble that you'll beat the 12 year and decreasing flow.

Exactly. OP also leaves out that those flowing after 12 years were victims of the "lost decade". Not 12 years for someone hired today. Probably someone that won't have their 1500 for a few more months, and wants to discourage people from going there and getting in front of him on the list.

Surprisingly I can agree with this statement. The question is, are you willing to wait that long to work for the major with the most toxic atmosphere? AA is definitely the Walmart of the majors. Now, that said, it's definitely a step up from Jetblue, Alaska, Allegiant, Spirit, etc.

Naw man, I've left Envoy. Done my time there. At LCC now making 164/hr in the left seat of the bus. There are things that could be better but I'll take it over $69 to $73/hour at Envoy is where I would be.

If you are thinking you are one of those getting a 5 or 6 year flow, might want to revisit that with your personal figuring and compare that with the company and the union. Lost decade...sure. That has an effect. It's not in the multi years though. A guy hired today is probably a bit over 8 years to wait, maybe a bit longer.

Because the culture/environment will be the same in 10 years?

That's cute

Kinda like your first beer.

Well, I'm making about $100/hr more than any of you Envoyers right now. And I understand you have to slug it out in a pretty oppressive environment there with regular beat downs by scheduling, management, etc.

But coming over here to just make a troll thread and flaunt is really telling of who you are as a person.

Thanks. Now tell everyone 12 years ago when this info mattered.

Fixed it for ya

In truth, no one knows if a year flow will ever happen until 6 years from now. In 6 years, we can all look back and learn whether or not a 6 year flow was a good guess or a bad guess. Either way, it's simply a guess.

If I was betting money on it, I'd wager that a 6 year flow won't happen. 6 years is based on a very optimistic set of scenarios. Any number of events could and likely will slow or stop the flow:

A pause in hiring at mainline
Scope relief at mainline
Economic recession
Bankruptcy
War
Another mainline merger
Automation
A merger among the wholly owned companies
Etc.

It may be risky to go to a low cost carrier, but it's equally as risky to wait patiently in line for one's turn to flow.

My advice: Do what you think is best for you and your family, and don't drink the Kool Aid.

My previous responses sound like a real jerk, but 3EngineTaxi has nailed it here. This is really the deal and what needs to be said. I got bashed leaving Envoy a couple of years ago for Allegiant because it was such a crappy LCC and such. At the time, granted, they did not have the current contract and the pay rates are much, much better now along with other areas.

The reason I left was due to what I felt was the uncertainty of the flow. Yes, you had the lost decade and I took that into account. But with the company's history of violating agreements and the way the hiring numbers and flow numbers looked, I decided it was better for me to live in base, Florida (home every night), and to go where I am now. For me, it's worked out great. I've got apps out still but haven't received any calls. Hopefully as my PIC bus time increases, I might get a hit. In the worse case scenario, I don't mind it if I get "stuck" here. Things are not bad and I've got lots of guys below me in the event something should happen.

In the meantime, all you newbies quick to jump on the bashing bandwagon, look at 3Engine's points above. That's essentially why I left.

Eight years is significantly less than the 12 you initially quoted. And yeah, all the tradgedies mentioned above could slow things down. But I could also get hit by a bus, or lose my medical or any other scenario you can think of. Life happens. I guess the way you'll know if you made the right decision is when the guy directly above and below you at Envoy flow. If you're still at Allegiant, then you have your answer. If you've moved onto a legacy, then congratulations.

Sure you've got guys below you should some economic turn take place, but one way I measure an airline to jump to is could they weather a major accident. Should something terrible happen on a flight, would that company survive? Do you think Allegiant could?

Let’s do a little math. 25 flow per month x 12 months per year = 300 flow per year.

2100 Pilots / 300 flow per year = 7 years until flow.

If flows go up or down, if some pilots leave to other airlines or jump around and get hired off the street, if the economy tanks or expands, if if if. . . Things can change.

I would surmise the 6 years until flow would not be a bad estimate, since some will be hired elsewhere or go to AA OTS.

Why is the current flow 12 years with Envoy? They are part of the lost decade when very few pilots were hired. Flow will zip through them quickly, as there are only a handful hired each year.

In about 2 years, will have gone through all the Protected Pilots. Then it will be at about 7 years from hire date to flow date.

Remember just a few years ago, the pilots flowing to AA had 25 years with Envoy. When they hired the flow program did not exist. In those few short years, hire dates have gone from 25 years to 12 years with Envoy.

We have yet to flow 300 in a year. And after the protected pilots flow the number of flows per month goes down.

Damn I almost make that as a 3rd Year FO on the 190 :D

Not possible with those group 1 pay rates. You being withheld from another status?

If you are going to do math, you should at least use the numbers provided in the contract. 25/mo only applies to those hired on or before 10/2011. Then it goes down. Also, AA hasn't run classes in December during any recent years of hiring, so even for the protected pilots the max seems to be 275/year. I agree that in the end we are just guessing, but you might as well make it the best guess. 300/year for 7 years isn't remotely realistic.

After the 10/2011 hires flow, it goes to 35%, or no fewer than 15/mo.
After DOS (12/2014 I think) hires, it goes down again to the lesser of 25% or roughly 15-18/mo (based on a formula that depends on the size of our pilot group).

You are correct, that is what the contract says, beyond the Protected Pilots.

I am speculating, but once hiring kicks into high gear, market forces will cause AA to renegotiate the flow number back up to the rate at the Protected Pilots, 25 per month.

Anticipated sustained hiring in a few years for the 6 majors (per Boeing press release which matches up with current hiring rates at the majors increased for the increased retirements) will be about 6,000 a year.

The military retirements are about 1,000 a year, so drop that number to 5,000. Recognize some get hired from other sources. Knock another 1,000 off this, make it 4,000. The regionals are about 20,000.

So again, with a bit of math, the hiring rate from the regionals will be about 20,000 / 4,000 per year = 5 years. I have a hard time believing AA will leave flows at 12 years. The market forces will push them to about match this. Otherwise, W.O. recruiting will go to pot.

Again, you may have a different opinion.

I love America. Where else can someone bash a job that lets you be at home 15 days a month and pays $200k after a couple of years?

It's obvious that you haven't been around that long. AAG will never, and I do mean never, go above and beyond on anything that they don't have to if it costs them money or isn't in their interest. They've violated Envoy's contract year after year. Take for example the reserve turn back +1 and then you are done. Somehow or another within a year of signing that deal, reserves would come out on day 1 and be turned back through day 6, never seeing their own bed for 5 straight nights. Clear violation that Envoy obviously had no intention of ever living up to.

I know it's hard to let go of the con job that the recruiters put on you and then the kool aid they pump in you during indoc and initial, but it's reality. You can see that AA has flat out stopped the flow for most of the last half of this year already. 88 new hires scheduled for November and only 25 flows.

why do you care so much? Weren't you fired from Envoy? Guess that'd explain your hard feelings

IMO that should have never been grieved. The company's interpretation is fair. Turn a reserve pilot back a second time or JM a pilot into a day off. I don't see why this is a big deal. Seems pretty straight forward.

Now if you want to talk about inadequate staffing levels then you have something.

Yep they stopped flow and new hires. They are sticking it to EVERYONE. All airlines that had pilots selected to go to AA during most of the last half of this year got screwed by AA. I hate it when AA sticks it to everyone like that.

It’s “contractual”. That’s why it was grieved and should have been won. If it was cheaper to hire more people and properly staff then we would have had the rtp program years ago. It was cheaper to hose the contract so that’s what they did. Did you notice that in the loa that was shut down that whole second turn back thing was taken out? How much did it cost to put in in there and how many guys saw that as a huge “get” worth voting yes for?

The Ultimate Point of the Flow
 

You do not have to wait for the flow.

Envoy is on par with the industry (and even leading in some areas) for reserve time, upgrade time, pay, bonuses, commuter policy, contract... You will qualify for a legacy/major/lcc just as quickly with Envoy as anywhere else. Difference being, even if you end up sucking at the application game (oh the stories I have heard about application windows and no callbacks etc.) you still have a guaranteed job at a legacy carrier.

I understand and appreciate the sentiment to warn pilots from going to Envoy with the notion that flow is going to be their golden ticket and fastest track to a major (fighting hard to hold back my tangent about airlines and schools preying on young pilots). Still, I think that message is lost and has yielded to a message of "flow is bad and is going to hurt you. RUN AWAY!" Which is not true and just as harmful to new pilots as "Flow is magic. It makes you poop rainbows and fart perfume."

$0.02

From an allegiant pilot no less lol

Sounds like a skittles ad.

Very well said. We have extremes on both ends it seems. Don't be an extreme... But a middle ground :)

Those contractual items were violated due to lack of staffing. The contract also addresses that the airline would be adequately staffed. The inaction on their part results in QOL hits for us. The airline should have to staff in order to meet the needs required by the contractual obligations like turn backs, flowing 50%, not growing the fleet, etc....

IMO flow will continue for the foreseeable future and the flow rate will not go up because Envoy will always try to grow and succeed even if it means metering the flow.

I agree. I was part of that “lost decade”. I left Eagle and landed way better off.. don’t let the “flow” carrot dictate your future. Nice back up yes. But don’t count on it as you could waste 5 years of your life before you realize you made a mistake. And then have to start over again..

In my opinion, your speculation is irrational exuberance. Every indication points to a flow at the absolute, bare minimum slowest rate possible.

Yep! Loving it.... They can hold me until they park the plane.

Keep chasing that dream...

To be clear, you were fired from Envoy. With good reason, so I am told. You clearly haven’t learned from the experience.

If it makes you feel better to say that I was fired from Envoy, keep plugging away. Let's just embrace your fantasy all the way here. I was fired and multiple people saw me in the CP office crying on the day of my firing. Like that one eh?

I couldn't care less as I am in a far superior position to you in your RJ metal with high hopes pinned, all on the flow.

Pass the popcorn, please, this is gettin' good... :cool:

I think that, because of the Pilot Shortage Tsunami soon to arrive, that 6 year flow will not happen...won't be a factor in the coming pilot hiring market...

Wasn’t there a selection yesterday? I checked the website and still shows August selections.


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