AA's current trend for OTS Civilian hires is around 9%. AA hired about 75 OTS civilians last year. That is pretty competitive. About a third of those 75 would fall into the non white male category. If you are a white male without some significant connection or quality, your chances of OTS hire at AA, regardless of your current employer is pretty slim. Envoy's flow could realistically take 7 - 10 years but its still, imo, a better bet than the chance you could be among the 400 civilian white males that will get hired OTS in that time frame.

Envoy's current flow system didn't develop overnight. It has been the evolution of several negotiation periods. PSA and PDT have both negotiated improvements to their flow. APA has been able to negotiate several contractual gains outside of Section 6 negotiations. If I were an Envoy pilot, I think I would be badgering Envoy's MEC to do the same.

AA hired 645 pilots in 2017. Out of that, 360 were flow throughs from the 3 WOs and 285 were street hires. Of the 360 flows, 263 came from Envoy, 52 from PSA, and and 45 from PDT. Only 60 of the pilots hired at AA in 2017 didn't come from a WO regional nor had any military training.

That’s all well and good if American is a must for you. Even in the mainline world AA isn’t the best just like how Envoy isn’t the best in the regional world. One could argue that mainline and lcc flying will be fairly similar in the coming years.

Are you a white male with no military experience, no aspirations of being a check airman, and nothing else to separate you from the other 15,000 John Doe's in the system? Then good luck.

I don't know where this myth comes from that legacies are just snatching guys up from the regionals once they hit 1000 hours of PIC now or in the near future. Ask Mesa pilots how that's working out for them.

Also, like others said, there's nothing that prevents you from trying to get hired off the street with AA from Envoy. I know a few that have done it, but they were all in possession of high amounts of melanin and/or estrogen.

I don’t believe anyone is saying mainline is hiring everyone off the streets right now.

Not from folks actively in the industry, but as the OP said, he has zero 121 time. When I was a flight instructor weighing my regional airline options, at least where I was at, the overarching theme was "There's a pilot shortage, so go to the place that gets you the quickest upgrade time so you can get PIC and get hired at a major." That's terrible advice.

Let's just say for the sake of argument that there's a 24-year old flight instructor out there with 1000/1250/1500 hours looking to go to a regional. And for the sake of argument, let's just say that flow time is (worst case scenario) 10 years. You can go to a place with no flow and bank on the assumption that the majors are going to get into a hiring crunch and hire anyone that is able to maintain a body temperature somewhere roughly in the 90's. But to me that's rolling the dice with your future. Nobody knows what the future holds, particularly in this industry.

Alternatively, you can go to a place with flow. If you still want to roll the dice, you can roll the dice and try to get on with AA OTS or another major OTS. But in your back pocket, worst case scenario, you're on with AA with 30 years of flying left ahead of you. Seems to me to be a no-brainer. Unless you have crippling debt as a 24-year old and other regionals are offering significantly more pay or you're returning to the industry as a 40 year old, flow is the best choice. No sense in rolling the dice with the first 10 years of your pilot career at the expense of the next 30. That's why Envoy classes are still full even when recruitment is being honest about flow time.

Thank you - more details on me
 

Thanks to all for your thoughts/insight/perspective.

I'm white male and won't be getting on with a regional until my early 40's. (Again, no prior 121 or professional flying experience.)

I wonder if my age means that I should prioritize getting on with 1 of the 3 WO's? In other words, is 'automatic' flow my best bet of getting on with a major at an older age? Assuming comparable TT/TPIC/other individual attributes, won't a major - or even an LCC - want to get their hooks into someone younger than me who can provide more years of service?

So here is the deal. You are in a unique spot in that you won’t ever make top pay at a mainline and won’t have great seniority until the last few years of your career. Flow is ok if you feel American is your airline of choice, but there will be other options.

I find when people defend the flow so heavily, they assume AA is the only game in town, when in fact it isn’t. United, Delta, Alaska, Southwest, Jet Blue, Spirit,Frontier etc all need pilots and demand “should” only increase.

A strong argument could be made for someone in your shoes to pick an LCC like spirit and stay with them for the entirety of your career. With their pay set to nearly match AA soon you will have a much better quality of life and move up the seniority list much quicker there. This holds true for other non-mainline companies as well. I am not saying it has to be them, but rather be sure to look at your situation realistically.
Will someone getting to AA or any other mainline at 50 (ten year flow and you will be 40 when hired) get to reach the pinnacle of 121 flying? No, the chances are far to slim to bank on and too many will be ahead of you. If you were 25-30 asking this question it would be a different answer.

This entire equation leaves out one huge factor not often talked about. Overseas contract flying. While I understand it isn’t for everyone, the opportunities here will be huge with some very workable situations for US based pilots. This is the biggest growth sector in the next 20 years and if you think we have a shortage of pilots, do some research on those carriers. There are already offers out that can be commutable.

Anyway, long story short, keep your options open and realistic while avoiding the “must go mainline AA” mentality. There are lots of compelling reasons to look elsewhere while still making competitive pay and a better QOL.

If you're in your early 40s you'll still have 20+ years of availability to the airline. If you consider that if an airline is considering years of service they also would be considering retirement dates it really isn't a big factor. If everyone getting hired now is the same age then they'll run into another retirement boom at the same time in the future. Interspersing some older pilots into the mix does help with that somewhat.

In the past this may have been a factor but these days it isn't as much of one if at all. Just don't approach it like it is. Delta has hired people in their 50s in the past few years (and I think at least one that was 60 or approaching 60) and I'm sure if American hasn't off the street they've had flows approaching that age.

Remember that a flow may take you 10years, which just means 10 years less at the major, so even if you had a flow I would encourage being very active in the application pipeline. Don't discount the guaranteed interview programs either.

Many thanks, AZPilotMike, and I certainly appreciate the mentorship. I can see how LCC's could lead to a better career ($ & QoL) for an older guy like me; younger folks might go regional to LCC to Big 3 such that I'd get opportunities at an LCC that would never come at the Big 3 and Spirit's contract narrows the ground financially with Big 3 (although still lacks defined contribution and some other big wins for a Big 3 pay structure). I haven't focused on overseas opportunities yet, but I understand there are lucrative opportunities there already that should grow in the years ahead and I need to learn more about these opportunities. Thanks again for the help.