11 Year Flow
 

Envoy was my first 121 job a few years back. After 6 months I left for Endeavor as I felt that I was sold a lie regarding the 5.5 year flow which was advertised at the time. I believe the advertising has revised to 6 years today. However I am still in contact with 2 from my new hire class and they said the latest flows are from May 2007. Which is a little over 11 years. I believe the flow is a gimmick and can't figure out how they are able to sell it at 6 years when people flowing are from 11 years ago.

And how is the progression from Endeavor? How many senior CA's are moving on to the majors or elsewhere and of them how long have they been at Endeavor? How long to go from new FO to CA?

It's a bit more complex than just saying the guys flowing today were hired 11 years ago so the guys hired today will flow in 11 years. Those that were hired at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017 will probably actually see a 5.5 to 6 year flow. Those hired prior to that and after that will have longer flow unless you believe we'll see more attrition than what we've had so yeah, 5.5 to 6 years is possible but I don't understand how the company can say that to recruits today.

And before anyone comes on to say we will see attrition like never seen before because of the massive retirements at the majors, keep in mind that our pilot group, as a whole, has bought into flow and that has made us extremely lazy at pushing forth our careers. If you know your projected flow date but can't tell me the date you last updated your applications, you fit this description.

At least we have a flow not a review of our app.

Next year at this time the flow will be around 8 years (2011 doh). 2 years from now the flow will be at 6 years (2014 doh). Hopefully by then you’ll be at the airline of your choosing. If not then.... ooops?

At least one of the responses here was well put together and thought out. The others are the same general hostile, pin back your ears type of responses that I received when I quit Envoy. In other words, calling me a dumb a** for leaving the "flow."

Attrition is moderate at Endeavor. With the new payrates, the senior guys are sticking around. Attrition is out of the mid to senior FO through junior CA ranks. Guys going to Delta, United, Jetblue, Spirit primarily. QOL blows Envoy away. Also, the treatment here is far better than Envoy. Management, CP, crew scheduling especially treat you like a pro. Envoy crew scheduling was the worst part of that job for me. THE most hostile, rude, nasty treatment I've ever had. It was a rude awakening for me at the time.

Back to my hiring at Envoy, I was completely naive and bought the flow that recruiting sold me completely. It works to a degree but as time goes on and the numbers drop 6 years is in no way possible no matter how you do the math. Plus the fact that management has not flowed occasionally, 3 months last year for example.

Like you guys say, thousands of retirements and you should have your choice of job. Even if the flow didn't take up so many slots, AA is my bottom choice because of the crappy work rules and toxic environment over there.

Idk about the rest of that, I think crew scheduling is getting better. There are some real dirtbags but they're on less essential desks (hotels), the daily schedulers seem ok on average, some are even bro-tier.

But I hear this. Having traveled a ton on Delta, AA, UAL since getting here, AA guys can be absolutely awful to deal with.

So, since life is good and you’re happy at Endeavor, why the need to come over to the Envoy forum and kick people in the teeth? Is that how Endeavor pilots treat their industry peers?

Go outside, enjoy some time with your family, have a beer, whatever. There are about a million other things you can do with your new-found happiness rather than ***** on APC about the flow, which no longer applies to you and has no bearing on your life.

Flow has value for some people and not for others. Clearly, you are of the latter camp. Those flowing today would likely have flowed in six years if not for the five year pause do to Congress passing the age 65 rule.

I am right in schedule to flow at 5.5 years on property.

Why do you care? You are at Endeavor now. I was hired at Envoy in December 2016 with 947 hours in piston aircraft. They told me projected flow for me “not the current flow” was between 5.5 to 6 years. As it stands, according to ALPA projections, which ignore attrition, I am projected to flow in about 5.3 years. No, not everyone who was hired before or after is in the same boat, but please shut up with the “you will be at the major of your choice” without the flow. As an FO I’m flying 600-700 hours a year. By the time I flow I will have around 4000 hours total time at most. With maybe 1500 PIC turbine and 3000 121 time. What are you folks smoking saying that I will be at the major of my choice with that? Really? I think Endeavor guy is second guessing the fact that the lowly Envoy flow like myself will be at American way before either of us could have been anywhere close to competitive at a major otherwise. We will see who made the right choice soon enough. You made your choice now move on.

Same here. Pretty laughable how people refuse the math. It's pretty simple and outside attrition will only make numbers better. I used to dog on the flow quite a bit, but the more I've learned as I've been here the less bad it looks.

You have a misunderstanding of seniority which is pretty common. Seniority actually has nothing to do with dates. It’s all about how many individual pilots are behind you and/or above you on the list.

Almost 1200 Endeavor Pilots have moved to Delta in the last 5 years. How many from Envoy have done to AA?

Agreed. Many at Envoy have the immature type responses you see here and don't realize how many Endeavor move to Delta in reality. The numbers are very comparable to Envoy's flow and arguably Delta is a better career choice than AA for many.

Recruitment was very up front with the flow when I interviewed. The guys on property early 2000s had 15+ years to look forward to. The later they were hired into the 2000s the more that number came down. Hence your 2007 hires being at 11 years. It’s down to 4-5 years for those guys hired a couple years ago. And now it’s trending back up somewhat but it’s not bad. I’m a year in with 5 years projected left. I’m good with that.
What I really don’t comprehend is folks who don’t work here starting threads every few weeks ragging on current employees and our employer and the lies we’ve all apparently bought into. Just sounds bitter.

But that’s a bad thing if you haven’t gone to delta yet. They’ve hired a ton more than aa/ua.

Good posts. It’s also important to remember that 6 yr flow is a projection based on today and it’s not a promise of flow in any timeframe

Folks getting hired at Delta from this point forward are going to have a lot of 38-40 year career people ahead of them. Almost everyone I personally know being hired there recently are late 20s to very early 30s.

Average new hire age is about 38. How people move up at each airline will be determined more by the success of the airline than retirements.

Between 1200-1300 are scheduled to flow by the end of the 2018. There was another 215 that went with seniority numbers in 2013 and another 235 or so that went prior to bankruptcy in 2011. So about 1500 in the past five years and 1700 since the arbitration and flow programs were put into place in 2010.

Last year, the flow was 16 years. This year, the flow is 11 years. Next year the flow will be 8 years. 2020, 6-7 years, and then 2021 you'll see the 2016 hires that hit the sweet spot see a 5 year flow. From that point, the flow starts increasing again. This all assumes no additional outside attrition and assumes AA new hire classes keep churning along. The flow is based on projections beginning with 2016 hires and they take a guess to future attrition in projecting that the flow will stay around the 6 year mark in the long run. Bottom line, nobody can predict future attrition. But as long as AA keeps hiring like they have been, 2016 hires WILL see a 5 year flow. Beyond that, who knows how high it will climb. Bro...if you're so happy and EDV, good on ya! If you're so happy, why feel the need to stir up sheeit in the Envoy thread? EDV is a great place with excellent pay and great QOL. If you're happy, then just keep living and be happy. Don't come and stir sheeit up. The guys that come stirring stuff up always come off as bitter.

This is the key. There were relatively few hires for several years. They are rapidly going through those years now.

Say if there are 300 flowing per year, but there were only 100 hired for a year, flow would improve.

Indeed, just a few years ago there were CAs with Envoy that had 25 years since DOH. If you used their amount of years as years to flow today, it would be laughable.

Hope this clears up the confusion. (Your premise would be right if the same number were new hires each year. But it is not.)

You literally made an account to come over here as though we give a ****/haven’t heard this before. Maybe you’re just upset you left?

As plenty of people said, you can’t assume future flow times based on those flowing today. There is a lot more at play.

And why do people on the outside assume its flow or nothing for us? Everyone is keeping their apps updated and plenty of people are getting hired at AA outside the flow with only a few years at MQ

I feel like I see this all too often on APC. The current "industry leaders" in terms of contract love sitting on their high horse talking about how great their company is and how could you ever be at any other company. Give it a rest guys. A few years ago, no one cared about Endeavor. Twenty years ago, no one cared about Delta. It's all cyclical.

One day your company, whichever it may be, will take a turn for the worst and be at the bottom of the barrel. I just hope that if/when I end up at an "industry leading" place, for however long it enjoys the top ranks, I'm not piiissing on anyone else.

Not only did nobody care about EDV years ago, they were the culmination of the 3 sheetyish regional airlines on the block merging and thereby forming a mega sheethole. Back then, the newly formed EDV airline took off and effectively led the race to the bottom. Before PSA, there was EDV racing towards concessions. It’s obviously a whole different animal today, but they led the charge to garbage contracts.

Really?

/filler

Any sense of how many Envoy pilots end up moving on to the likes of SWAL/ UAL/DAL/Fedex/UPS before their flow to AA?

I figure most people that move up move up to AA with the flow, but I don’t know.

I know of one going to swa in a couple months. Another one interviewing shortly.

But...your screen name is Envoy1? :confused:

Scroll down to the bottom of the MEC news blasts from the union and you can find this updated info.

119 ytd, 11 last month, 6 were FO's.

And they dont even actively track where they went or why they left. I figured it would be good leverage but then I remembered we are a regional with people banging down our door.