Unscientific attrition number crunching
 

Since I had this and the last year's seniority lists in hand and not much else to do, I ran some numbers.
This year's attrition rule of thumb looks like this:
First year of service - 185
Second year of service - 80
Third to within a year of flow - 60/yr
Year before the flow - 40

Do what you will with that. I'm mostly leaving it here to compare the numbers next year.

Waiting for next years results, but these numbers are very, very promising.

These are per month numbers? More details!

I was actually expecting higher average attrition. As it is, first year to year and a half gives a huge seniority boost, but that's due to people quitting the first year.

No, that's how many numbers people of various years of service moved up from December 2017 to December 2018 for reasons other than flow.

So if you were 12/17 hire by 12/18 185 people in front of you left, of which 105 were within their first year of service, 13 within their second, 3 within their third and so forth

Is that 365 for the year total, and the year they were in when they left?

Nope, that's total seniority progression in addition to the flow for the 1st, 2nd etc YoS

That doesn't seem to track. That would mean 600+ people left after flow? I don't think that actually happened. I could be wrong.

If it does track, what does that say about the benefit of the flow?

Either my 2am write up was cryptic, or no one reads the follow up stuff for comprehension.

The most junior guy on the last years list moved up 521 #s. 521=flow + 185.
Guy that did his 4th year moved up 400 #s = flow plus 64.

With the current seniority list the only thing that can be said is that the attrition is fairly low past the initial year. Slight uptick after two years of service - people probably leaving for immediately greener pastures, and then another slight uptick at 6-7 years of service - logic suggests that those are the guys jumping to the majors. Or the guys that resigned due to forced upgrades. Or whoever really knows, but that whoever isn’t me.

My seniority number was 1826 when I was hired in April of 2016. It’s now 823. Just over a thousand numbers closer to the top in less than three years. Plus about 500 numbers worth of growth in that same timeframe. All according to the latest seniority list.