Only 180 pilots expected to flow next year!
 

With Company Morale at an all time low in years. People on the line furious.

Poor management and union communication.

Flow about to slow dramatically and little movement for first officers soon.

This place is going to get BAD!

The ship is sinking FAST

I told everyone that went there this would happen, but no one listens they are gonna be American pilots!

After the Protected Pilots flow at 29 per month, the contract calls for 15 per month. Do you think they will negotiate the 15 up, just like they did for the Protected Pilots?

I recall similar statements of much lower flows in the contract, after the 824s, for the Protected Pilots. Then the reality of retirements and competitive environment set in.

What makes next year different than a year or so ago? Is the world ending? Are you serious, or are you a troll yanking our chain?

Protested pilots were 25 per month before the change to 29. What you willing to give up to make 15 to 19.
Pay, ins premiums, vacation, trng pay, or all electing to flow to increase to 19 per month take a 20 percent pay cut.
You all knew, you were all told, you all still chose to come here because some 6 month rookie recruiter told you different. Enjoy.

I fail to see how stating what is in the contract now is 'trolling' or 'yanking your chain'.

However, his numbers aren't entirely accurate. Assuming AA has full classes every month next year, it's going to be closer to 200 than 180. There's only about 10 months worth of the group that goes at 15/mo. It's hard to give an exact number since the end of the PP group might extend into the first month of next year but it's likely going to be a little shy of 200. But if AA has a month or two where they have no classes (has happened every year so far), then it will be closer to that 180... and could be even less!

OK, maybe that last bit was trolling (but it's certainly possible). ;)

I try to not comment on anything related to flow, but I think we all need to consider the following:

AA needs the flow to be valuable way more than any of us need the flow to be hired at a Legacy/LCC/Cargo. Envoy leadership has stated time and time again that the reason we have so little leverage is because of the flow. The second that the flow is no longer deemed valuable...8+ years, pilots getting held up for minor infractions, etcetera...pilots will immediacy go to XJet, Republic, Endeavor, Skywest, and all the sudden AAG must raise WO pay considerably more to remain pilot competitive.

Envoy management may hate the churn the flow creates, or even want to punish us, but AAG does not care. AAG needs the flow to be valuable. I don’t have any idea of how the math works to a 5.5 year flow. I’m clueless to Envoy’s refusal to share the model, as any leader knows the value of transparency.

Moral of the story - I am just guessing, but I don’t see the flow slowing at all.

Well, if that's the case, we shouldn't have to negotiate anything away for them to increase the flow.

Let's see how that works out. :D

Expect 15 a month for the next group. The protected pilots settled a grievance for the extra flow (which also conceded later groups ability to grieve the interpretation of the initial flow agreement). As for straight up negotiating higher numbers, word from RW is that 29 a month is too high for the company’s liking and looks forward to the 15 a month in order to bolster the pilot ranks. While this is maybe not what the over optimistic folks like to hear, the sky isn’t falling because alpa flow projections have accounted for this all along. If you came here expecting something different then that is on you.

I absolutely do not think we should negotiate anything for the flow. In my opinion, the flow is worth approximately $10-20/hour to AAG.

Pretty sure AA ran a class every month last year.
This year they will skip August for M80 displacements, but are planning to run December classes again.

That's true but they made up for it the year before by not having a class in October or December but having an enormous class in November, which we got 25 of

I think you are looking at the wrong end of the flow. You are looking at what having a flow saves AAG at the wholly owned level. They are looking at the big picture.

Let me digress just a little. Start with a question: Why do the major airlines fall all over themselves to hire some old retiring military O-6 who went through one year of UPT 22 years ago, then flew some non-transport category aircraft for a few thousand hours and has been flying a desk for ten of the last twelve years?

OK, I’ll concede the person is slow training risk and is gonna be motivated, but seriously, an old Warthog driver? How much bombing and strafing does AAG anticipate doing. No, the secret there is old and retiring.

A retired 0-6 is going to be pushing 50, meaning AAG is going to have that dude for 15 years. That’s going to give the guy three years, 20% of his career, at the top of the payscales. And the guys not going to push aggressively for pay, or medical care either, because he’s got retired Colonel pay and Tricare for life.

Now take the guy who gets on at the regional at age 26 and flows to AA 6 years later. That dude is going to be at the top of the payscale for 20 of his 32 years, roughly 60%. He’s going to have a young family too, using a fair amount of medical care.

Per flying year butt in seat time - the old codger is cheaper at the major end of the flight hour career. Relative to the savings of keeping that person at the low end of the payscale, Training a few extra people and giving them a type rating is pretty cheap.

And it’s sort of the same with flow. Every year that AAG can slow flow by hiring non AAG wholly owned pilots outside of the flow is that much less on average they will be paying pilots that do flow.


You gotta look at both ends of the flow to understand the motivation. Follow the $s.

Not going to disagree with this. But we know the company will expect something in return for increasing flow and you were saying that flow is more important to AAG than to us.

BTW, I also agree that the flow is more valuable to AAG than us but that's not what this pilot group acts like. Someone says fffllllloooooowwwww and everyone here get's hypnotized or something.

Really interested to see how dera spins this one

Spin what? Numbers are numbers.

Forgive my ignorance but I just don’t understand how the flow could be slowing in a time where AA is nearing 1,000 mandatory retirements per year and taking aircraft deliveries? I get that there will be displacements from the S80 which would slow the flow for a month or two but how else would they cover all of the retiring pilots and fleet expansion? Additionally, non-mil OTS hires make up less than 10% of the annual NH classes which makes things even more confusing. Does this mean I need to join the military to work at AA?

Contract sets the min number of pilots going over, not the max. If AAG wants more than 15 a month they'll get it, lowering the min just gives the company more control over how many they HAVE to send over.

Just because AA is retiring that many pilots doesn't mean they have to get those pilots from Envoy. They have 2 other WOs and will have additional street hiring if they really want to replace all the retiring pilots. Probably more non-mil pilots hired.

American is consolidating their fleet so 1000 retirements does not equal 1000 new hires. If it did American would be scrambling to increase their training already.

My opinion is the opposite. The contract/loa sets the max (15 for the next group), and American sets the min depending on how many or if they are even hiring that month.

True. It's called furloughing from the top. The more they push flying to regional pilots, the more they can retire and not replace.

Yep..enjoy those shiny 175s and all the.new routes. You are paying for them with your mainline jobs.

This is exactly right.

I would refuse the e175 if I were you guys. Refuse to go to training for it. Everyone bid the e145 the next bid.

I've gotta bump this. That be some sound reasoning there, son.

Are you that guy I met last time I was at the training hotel that thought he was going to get "175 CA pay" because he was upgrading to the 175? Because he said the same thing.

From the Boeing projections, the US pilot hiring to the majors is projected to be 4,000 pilots per year from the regionals, in the next couple of years as retirements ramp up.

That is after subtracting out military and other civilian pilot hires.

There are 20,000 RJ pilots.

20,000 divided by 4,000 = 5 years on average. At that point, how valuable is a guaranteed 8+ year flow? Something has got to give.

Bingo.....

I thought you worked at Envoy. Forgot to switch screen names? It's tough to keep the story straight sometimes, isn't it? :rolleyes:

Nope just pointing to a fact. Dont preference and only place displacement bid. 145 has more bases and it flows through out the system from one base to another. The e175 just plays yoyo.

Yeah idk, because the company rolls out the best QOL in the airline for 175 pilots you’d really be shooting yourself in the foot if you voluntarily marooned yourself on junkjet island.