AA Flow @ 9+ Years
 

https://i.imgur.com/GErG4Ob.jpg

9.04 years to flow (July 2028) from the latest ALPA interactive seniority list.

Meanwhile, the company continues to advertise the following:
https://i.imgur.com/DjulmYX.jpg

Some thoughts:
- It has been heavily debated as the accuracy of flow times for new hires, but the general consensus is that the best guesstimate is likely somewhere between the company and ALPA projections. The company is selling a highly improbable best case scenario whereas ALPA's projections are based on non-flow lifers + retirements + flow attrition forumulas only (i.e. no outside hiring).

- Flow is non-linear. A significant portion of first officers (most having < 2 years at the company since Envoy forces upgrades) attrit from Envoy.... which should tell you something about the company, but I'll leave that up to your imagination to decipher. Significantly fewer on the captain side leave the company outside the flow, which means flow projections favor ALPA's projection over the company's projection.

- The company is currently flowing a decent number of pilots, but they're all from the protected pilot group. With less than a year before all these pilots leave Envoy, flow slows down to 15/month for about a year. It'll pick up again based on a formula of "25% of the new hire classes at AA with a company cap of 5 plus one pilot for every 125 pilots over 480 on the Envoy seniority list per month that may be waived by the company." This is estimated to be around 20 or so pilot per month, however, these pilots are not contractually obligated to flow. Translation: no guarantees.

- If new hires are flowing in 2028, you have at least 8,300 pilots senior to you that were hired at AA from now through the beginning of 2028. You're going to be stuck near the bottom of the seniority list which will make you furlough bait. Read up on your airline history and see why this is a scary place to be.

- We are at the top of an economic cycle. The industry is going to head for a downturn; it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when.' A recession, depression, hyper-inflation, tensions with Iran, large scale war, etc. can do a number on business and personal travel, let alone fuel prices. What is fact is that there will be a large number of mainline pilot retirements happening over the next decade or so; there will be movement at mainline and there will be hiring. However, it may not be the hiring free-for-all many are hoping for. Airlines can absorb the a lot retirement losses through contraction alone. Those getting hired at mainline are going to have to remain super competitive. What does that mean for Envoy pilots? AA (and all mainline hiring) may be further away than people think.

CONCLUSION
The flow has little to zero value to anyone considering coming here. It's literally one of the only reasons anyone is coming here and they're being lied to about expectations and projections.

You should consult with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). False advertising is a crime.

The flow is part of the contract. So yes, there are guarantees. The only thing that's different is that a non-protected pilot cannot flow with an active disciplinary letter on file.
Easy fix: Don't get one when you are within 2 years of flowing.

Yeah just like the company decided to add in last week that you need to be a captain for 12 months. They can do ANYTHING they want to you regarding the flow. It is not a guarantee.

it's in your contract loa 18-01 I believe.

No dog in the fight but isnt the list you posted based on no one leaving for other carriers, staying in aviation, assumes no one bypasses the flow, and everyone stays healthy? 9 yrs is worse case?

That's not what the company decided to add. Everyone needs to be a captain for 12 months. Before there was an exception for displaced captains, that was a loophole, and they fixed it. Not necessarily a kosher way to do it, but goes with the spirit of the original flow agreement that's in the contract.

There are 2 (TWO!) FO's who are currently affected by this, and 2-3 more in the future. You really are taking this way out of proportion.

That's correct. It seems to run at 2:1 at least during your first year. It slows down when you move up on the list of course.

I'd say barring any black swan events, 7 years and change is a realistic estimate.

It wasn’t a loophole. It was something the company agreed to in a signed LOA. Now they arbitrarily changed it without negotiation with ALPA hence the grievance.

Really it won’t affect many at all except the few that took ‘sick leave’ for many years as an FO and are now ‘fit’ only 6-7 months prior to what they thought was their original flow.

Also it wasn’t always the case you needed to be a CA to flow. FO’s used to be able to flow.

If it affects 1 it's too many. You really are not taking this as seriously as you should. Don't be an apologist for the company. What if you were that one, and you thought you were abiding by the contract and the company decides to screw you. Should we fight for you or nah?

It's not about how many people it affects. It's the principle that they can do whatever they want at any time to your flow. Next time it may affect 2000 not 2.

When that LOA was signed, I don't think anyone thought it would ever come to this, with a few FOs playing the "sick leave" game, working their second job, and going directly to mainline.
Yeah, it's a crappy move from the company, they know they get this one for free because the arbitration takes longer than the flow lock. But I wouldn't say the FO's are squeaky clean with this either. Their plan backfired. I just can't see this as a huge plan by the company to restrict flow, as some here suggest.

This doesn't affect the protected pilots, no? The protected FOs can still flow?

Dera only cares about the company. He couldn’t care less about how any unilateral action by the company is taken.

It applies to protected pilots the same as anyone else.

Did not Rick's letter say displaced to a Capt position. PPG pilots are to senior to be displaced anywhere they dont want to, and since the ppg does not require to be a captain then they wont be effected. They are all gone by january 2020.

There are 2 PPG FO's who have been displaced.

These FO's have been screwing up everyone at this company, so don't expect any sympathy.

dera said "knowing some of the FOs I have no sympathy"

Weird that a supposed 1st year FO on rsv knows people that have been on leave from the company for 3-4 years. Or are you done pretending you're a line pilot again?

Care to elaborate?

Company starts enforcing upgrades -> FO gets a waiver from the company to stay an FO because he "lost and can't hold" a first class medical -> Company approves said waiver -> time to flow approaches -> Divine Intervention, said pilot can now hold a first class medical!.

Sorry, I don't believe in coincidences like that.

They hog the super sweet day trip lines so no-one else can get them, and everyone knows they are full of sh*t with their "medical issues" or whatever excuse they have used to avoid upgrading.

"on rsv"? Since when? I've held a line for a while now. And yes, I know some of these stories. They are not shy to brag about them. Most FO's have no sympathy for them.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Lol, I just jumpseated behind an AA FO who hid on mil leave for FIFTEEN years and flew twelve hours of FO IOE with Envoy before flowing.

When did he flow?

Don’t remember, but awhile ago.

So pre LOA. That can’t happen now.

Yea, obviously

Unfortunately there are quite a few ex mil guys that play shenanigans like that. There are also a bunch that are super cool. That being said I'm not sure why the company (AA) has such a hardon for exmil guys, or reserve guys, etc. with all their scheduling issues and potential to play the system.

Everyone knows it happens but federal laws don't allow for investigation of it.

1. Military is a known quantity, both from a pilot and employee perspective.

2. It's illegal to discriminate against them, and it's very easy for the Fed to deny various government contracts to employers who don't comply with rules regrading vets and current mil. Also the PR would very bad, intolerable for a large brand like AA (or any other legacy).


What happens?

The only "abuse" is where someone goes out on mil leave but does not actually serve mil duty while on leave.

ANY other military duty where the military pays you (or even puts you in a very rare non-pay duty status) is 100% legit. That includes purely involuntary orders to deploy overseas, as well as "voluntary" orders at your local home station. Typically if they need a body they will ask for volunteers first, so as to avoid doing an invol on somebody who might be in a bad position for that (family, career) at that moment. Just because it's mutually agreeable in no way makes it less legit.

If there is a duty status or orders in hand, than there's nothing possible to investigate. Period, it's black and white. However, if someone takes mil leave and is NOT on duty, any airline will throw the book at them, rightfully so. And when the airline is done, the military will throw their book at him too. A CO can (and will) terminate someone's career for that with the stroke of a pen.

As a leader, I encourage my people to do one year at an airline job before volunteering for orders. But it's their call, out of the goodness of their hearts, and in NO way mandatory.

Why military, because they either have or will have military retirement. That softens the blow to low pay when its subsidized by military retirement. Just an opinion.

That's inconsistent. My generation pretty much all have the retirement (and medical) because the industry sucked arse for so long that we all ended up sticking with the reserves whether we wanted to or not.

Today's generation is much more inclined to make a clean break from the mil, so no reserve duty, pension, or medical. Some of them will doubtless regret that.

A retired officer's pension certainly enables him to work for a regional, but regionals (airlines) don't seek them out because they have a pension. Civilians make up the large majority of their hires today, so they have to compete on the civilian market. Also a typical retired officer (family, mortgage, kid's college funds) cannot even remotely live on the pension. Really only a general or flag officer could (kids out of the house).

Known quantity? The only guys who got sent back thru the training system at my carrier were exmil. All of civ pukes made it through without issue. I guess the Airbus is a tough plane to learn for them or something.

When you talk to regional folks in the training dept by far their highest pass rate is with young ex-CFIs out of the entire demographic.

The worst absuer we had was an ex mil guy who went out on disability and collected from the company but then flew fighters as an IP for his guard unit. After that some big restrictions were put in place on taking disability. Just like anything it only takes a few to ruin it.

Lol you will take any opportunity you have to put down other pilots. Whose side are you on? Oh you've "heard stories" in your less than one year on property. I wonder from who. Just wait till something happens that only affects a small group of pilots and you happen to be in it.

Yeah, I don't think this happens to dera.

Exactly and if by some chance they are a pilot, they are in position that won't be affected. Dera is unique, I haven't met someone that has such a disdain for their fellow pilots that it oozes out of every post they make even when unintended. Why anyone would go to them for advice is beyond me as they clearly don't work the same job and for the same company as the rest of us.

Spot on. Newly minted CFIs that go to a partner academy and sign with Envoy far and away blow the socks off everyone else in training. Like it or not, the pipeline program is a gold mine for talent and is the future for Envoy.

"The future of Envoy is any idiot from ATP."

You just made me spit my coffee through my nose. Thanks for the laugh.

"We like people that live in mommy's basement they will work for much less"

Having been through six airline initials and having had extensive training experiences with people of both backgrounds I can conclude that there are as many variables amongst mil guys as there are amongst civilians when comparing equal experience levels. Comparing a civilian candidate with 10 years of experience to a military one with 10 years experience should net a similar result in terms of (in)consistency. I think some civilians tend to forget to account for previous military experience. Some (US) military guys tend to think their training and experience is of higher value without really knowing the challenges of the civilian path. ...humble bragging and reminders of service galore.

The reality is that when a 10 year pilot is screened at the major level that person has already been thoroughly vetted. I think the strong preference for Military guys is a political one. Airlines have no beef hiring people with less experience and they are hungry to show support for popular social groups: Mil, woman, lgbt and select minorities.

Whatever, you can CFI bash all you want but the best sticks are usually ex-CFIs and so are the best book people. What the CFIs lack generally is good judgment, especially now when ATP CFIs are paid 1/5 of the going rate after taxes and are applying to the ENVOY cadet program. It’s still a coup by recruitment though, anyone who teaches 1500 hours at ATP does NOT need money, mom and dad have it. And these people will make adequate FOs for a year or two. What happens after that, well... hopefully nothing lol