UnprotectdPilot

9.04 years to flow (July 2028) from the latest ALPA interactive seniority list.

Meanwhile, the company continues to advertise the following:


Some thoughts:
- It has been heavily debated as the accuracy of flow times for new hires, but the general consensus is that the best guesstimate is likely somewhere between the company and ALPA projections. The company is selling a highly improbable best case scenario whereas ALPA's projections are based on non-flow lifers + retirements + flow attrition forumulas only (i.e. no outside hiring).

- Flow is non-linear. A significant portion of first officers (most having < 2 years at the company since Envoy forces upgrades) attrit from Envoy.... which should tell you something about the company, but I'll leave that up to your imagination to decipher. Significantly fewer on the captain side leave the company outside the flow, which means flow projections favor ALPA's projection over the company's projection.

- The company is currently flowing a decent number of pilots, but they're all from the protected pilot group. With less than a year before all these pilots leave Envoy, flow slows down to 15/month for about a year. It'll pick up again based on a formula of "25% of the new hire classes at AA with a company cap of 5 plus one pilot for every 125 pilots over 480 on the Envoy seniority list per month that may be waived by the company." This is estimated to be around 20 or so pilot per month, however, these pilots are not contractually obligated to flow. Translation: no guarantees.

- If new hires are flowing in 2028, you have at least 8,300 pilots senior to you that were hired at AA from now through the beginning of 2028. You're going to be stuck near the bottom of the seniority list which will make you furlough bait. Read up on your airline history and see why this is a scary place to be.

- We are at the top of an economic cycle. The industry is going to head for a downturn; it's not a matter of 'if' but 'when.' A recession, depression, hyper-inflation, tensions with Iran, large scale war, etc. can do a number on business and personal travel, let alone fuel prices. What is fact is that there will be a large number of mainline pilot retirements happening over the next decade or so; there will be movement at mainline and there will be hiring. However, it may not be the hiring free-for-all many are hoping for. Airlines can absorb the a lot retirement losses through contraction alone. Those getting hired at mainline are going to have to remain super competitive. What does that mean for Envoy pilots? AA (and all mainline hiring) may be further away than people think.

CONCLUSION
The flow has little to zero value to anyone considering coming here. It's literally one of the only reasons anyone is coming here and they're being lied to about expectations and projections.

As Briefed

You should consult with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). False advertising is a crime.

dera

The flow is part of the contract. So yes, there are guarantees. The only thing that's different is that a non-protected pilot cannot flow with an active disciplinary letter on file.
Easy fix: Don't get one when you are within 2 years of flowing.

rld1k

Yeah just like the company decided to add in last week that you need to be a captain for 12 months. They can do ANYTHING they want to you regarding the flow. It is not a guarantee.

buddies8

it's in your contract loa 18-01 I believe.

AAfng

No dog in the fight but isnt the list you posted based on no one leaving for other carriers, staying in aviation, assumes no one bypasses the flow, and everyone stays healthy? 9 yrs is worse case?

dera

That's not what the company decided to add. Everyone needs to be a captain for 12 months. Before there was an exception for displaced captains, that was a loophole, and they fixed it. Not necessarily a kosher way to do it, but goes with the spirit of the original flow agreement that's in the contract.

There are 2 (TWO!) FO's who are currently affected by this, and 2-3 more in the future. You really are taking this way out of proportion.

dera

That's correct. It seems to run at 2:1 at least during your first year. It slows down when you move up on the list of course.

I'd say barring any black swan events, 7 years and change is a realistic estimate.

havick206

It wasn’t a loophole. It was something the company agreed to in a signed LOA. Now they arbitrarily changed it without negotiation with ALPA hence the grievance.

Really it won’t affect many at all except the few that took ‘sick leave’ for many years as an FO and are now ‘fit’ only 6-7 months prior to what they thought was their original flow.

Also it wasn’t always the case you needed to be a CA to flow. FO’s used to be able to flow.

moon

If it affects 1 it's too many. You really are not taking this as seriously as you should. Don't be an apologist for the company. What if you were that one, and you thought you were abiding by the contract and the company decides to screw you. Should we fight for you or nah?