Leaving for a U/LCC
 

What, in your opinion, is the breakeven point for when it is worth it to stay at Envoy for the flow or one of the 'Big 6' versus leaving early for a low cost carrier? Is it worth it to leave with SIC time only or at least stay until 1,000 TPIC?

Additional Thoughts:
Hiring is going to be through the roof at the legacies next year and for years to come. Delta is hiring around 1,000+ pilots, AA is projected to be hiring 1,300+ pilots, United just came out and said they're hiring over 10,000+ pilots over the next decade. None of this is surprising, but things are starting to happen.

The [Ultra] Low Cost Carriers are becoming career destination airlines. Spirit & Frontier have really nice contracts that will likely get even bigger improvements in the next few years. Allegiant is due for a new contract soon. Even Sun Country will be looking at a new contract next year. Waiting around at Envoy for an AA flow is less and less attractive.

AA, as a company, is a mess and is getting hammered by some LCCs, particularly Spirit. It's going to be UGLY when the economy turns.

Waiting 7-9 years to flow for a new hire hardly seems worth it given their relatively seniority by the time they'd make it to mainline.

Sounds like you’re talking yourself into a LCC.

The older you are, the better off you are bouncing for a LCC as quick as you can and get seniority now, upgrade as quick as possible and maximize CA pay now.

There’s too many variables though to give a true one size fits all answer.

Personal opinion is Spirit looks better than Frontier. They have some international ops (how many more domestic only carriers do we need...) and are making efforts to redo their brand and image. Sure the big three are loosing pilots due to retirements but what NEW ROUTES do they have ? More flights to Vegas ? What is "different" about one to the other, an important element if the economy goes south.

I think Spirit (and yes, Frontier) are good places to hang out while you wait for Delta to call. If they never call, you are a captain soon in 5 yrs or less and prob 200k+ flying new equipment.

Remember, in 1990, SWA was a "low cost" carrier that "only" offered peanuts. Imagine the SWA FO in 1990 who quit because TWA called him.

Wouldn't he be a G4 CA at AA now?

uh, no.
Do you have any idea how that merger went down?

Some TWA guys weren't called back until 2014. A 1988 TWA hire is junior to a 2006 US Air new hire.

Yea, my bad. I forgot how badly AA screwed over the TWA guys.

Do it, Spirit is awesome. Job is super easy, schedule flexibility is great and after first year the pay is pretty good.

You are obviously anti-flow. As you should be. It is useless for a new hire as it isn't even guaranteed, and could take 9+ years. If you wait that long for flow you will be at the bottom of the mass hiring sitting stagnant for 15-20 years (from hire date)... or be half way up seniority at an LCC in 5 years. I will be leaving if I get the CJO from Spirit and I plan on making it my last job.

I took the offer from Spirit over waiting 3 more months for an interview at Delta. (SSP program with Endeavor). I don’t have any regret and would probably do it again. Upgrades here is just at 3 years and most of our CA are making 200K-300K. It’s not a bad place to make it as your final stop.

Same at a few of the ACMI’s now too
Kalitta, Omni & ATI all have good contracts. Both K4 and Omni first year FO rates are $117ph and CA tops at $297ph. Home basing, no crashpads, very fast upgrade.

I think K4 are looking for 777 typed guys.

But K4 and Omni are great prospects for those that like the equal time on/off positive space gigs.

Great gig for guys who can't stand being home for 2 or 3 weeks at a time :cool:

Perfect job for an older married male..."get me away from this woman"

As much as Cujo wants to try to convince guys that Omni and the other ACMIs are the greatest thing since sliced bread, that setup is a whole different ballgame. Not many families are gonna be good with being gone up to 2 weeks at a time. Cujo loves to say "I only flew 30 hours this month". Well, you can only fly 30 hours a month on RSV at Envoy, but it doesn't mean it's a good thing. There's a reason that the ACMIs are a last choice decision behind the legacies, LCCs, and ULCCs. You can scream "positive space tickets" and "vacation in Vegas" as much as you want. Anyone with any sense sees right through that nonsense. Just to put it into perspective, Omni needs Street Captains. That's how successful they've been in their recruiting endeavors.

Not for everyone. That’s for sure, but one person’s trash is another’s treasure.

I do “mentorship” for the AA Cadet program. I only offer my 2 cents and my opinion is just that, a opinion. Take it for what it’s worth.
I’ll tell you what I’ve told each of them on the first day we’ve talked.

Your goal should be to beat the flow to your “final” airline. Even if it’s AA, you should always try to be maneuvering and strengthening your resume to get there before your flow date. The goal of the flow is not to staff mainline, just simply to act as a carrot to get you to one of the AAG regionals. It’s no different than pensions that were offered to the previous generation, as it is just a promise that will benefit some and since it was always under company control, was taken away when times changed and the company couldn’t afford to honor its commitment. Don’t think for a second that if crap really hits the fan that anything “contractual” like the flow can’t be altered, changed, or discontinued in the future, literally overnight.

If going to a LCC is either your end goal or you think a higher step up the ladder towards it, then go and don’t look back. Too much hiring for the foreseeable future to fall into the flow “trap”. That’s the whole point of it honestly. To get you on property and keep you there. For some, it works and is a great thing. For others, it works against you because it makes you second guess your choice to leave, which may just be the best thing for you.

Btw... no of these comments above should be construed as anything negative against flow-thrus. Everyone I have met is a great guy who I’d rather have voting on the next few contracts (they know exactly how shady AAG management is), than some of the older generation who seem to have given up and just want more $$$ before they leave, QWL be damned.

I’m not sure what the issue with Omni then, since there’s an FO at Spirit ( that I’ve flown with a couple of times) who was a 6 year CA there, and is now a commuter.

Or for guys who like to be home 2-4 weeks at a time. It works both ways.... take vacations without ever using vacation time just by careful bidding

They need street captains because they’ve been hiring mostly military and none have the 1000 121 time; and unlike Envoy we don’t do forced upgrades. With our new rates there are plenty of senior FO’s happy with $200k a year.

Good post......

Their old contract prior to 2018 was not good and people got out when they could. The attrition now is very little, mostly retirements. I’ve only gone up about 30 numbers in two years. With the new CBA and QOL improvements guys aren’t leaving for LCC’s anymore unless they live in their base. Even then it’s not the CA’s leaving.

It definitely isn’t for everybody, but for many it’s a diamond in the rough.

Spirit just announced an order for an additional 100x Airbus aircraft (320neo) with options for an addition 50x aircraft. Spirit will be needing to hire an additional 2,700+ pilots with upgrades currently around 3 years.

7 to 9 year flow to AA. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

What’s better, three years as a CA at MQ, or three years as an FO at TK?

If you have the PIC time then FO at NK for sure. $35ish more an hour, better contract, and a 3year FO at NK wouldn't be on RSV.

You talking TK or NK???

Depends where you are coming from, what your end state is and how much time you have. Second year pay alone will make up the difference of first year pay loss vs captain at a regional. QOL is something you have to judge for yourself. Timeframe makes a difference as well. Upgrade at Spirit in anything less than five years you’re better off than what you can do at a major, especially if you are too old to have longevity to make it to the bigger metal.

Spirit just finalized their order for an additional 100 A320neo series jets.

People ought to take note of AA's financial situation, then note the remarkable success and growth of Spirit in the previous recession. Looks like ancillary revenue creates a more stable business model. Don't believe me? Even Forbes recently put out an article analyzing the ULCC business model and concluded these carriers will be more resilient during a recession.

In the words of Curly Bill Brocious “Well, Bye”.

Exactly. No cargo, just pax. Best kept secret in 121.
At my age, I’d go to an LCC only if I lived in base. I’m done with commuting and Crashpads.

3 year FO would be by choice due to QOL. Since upgrade is around 2 years and 9 months, and will probably drop a couple of months. The latest hiring number for 2020 is 600 NH and 342 upgrades. We’re expecting 21 A320neo this year and 27 next year.

Any serious idea when you all are going to have AQP up and running across the board? I have been flying long enough to remember taking all my check rides as non-aqp but having gone through the aqp program at Envoy I would hate to have to go back to the old ways, lol.

again, not enough to stop be from coming over if offered the job but just curious.

I just finished a PC recently, and from my understanding they are waiting for the final approval from the FAA. It will start with recurrent before initial training. I doubt you’ll see it in the next few months, but you’ll probably see it for your first recurrent.

Like I said before I know many E75 captains in their 30s leaving for ULCC’s and growing ACMI’s. I flew with one recently leaving here to go to a local 135 gig as he was tired of CS’s abuse and the time away from his family. It would be foolish to wait for a 6 plus year flow.

No one should be thinking of staying if any thing other than a RJ is on the line.

I have to strongly disagree with the opinions here that are in favor of leaving Envoy for a ULCC. Take Spirit for example since they have been discussed. They have a terrible reputation with customer service, charge exorbitant fees for everything and are delay and cancel prone. Plus their payrates are bottom of the barrel and I wouldn't touch their contract with a 10 foot pole. They seem to be riding high, for now. However, toss in a recession and you could show up to work at a place like that and find yourself furloughed or worse, find the doors locked. To give up a sure seat at American Airlines, for that….is the definition of insanity. AA isn’t going anywhere and is the closest thing to lifetime employment that you can find in the year 2020.

Yet everything I read predicts LCCs to be in a great spot, should a recession hit, since most of their revenue is ancillary sales. Unlike AA/UA/DL, where more of the profit comes from ticket sales. What do you think people flock to when they have less money? There's a reason Spirit has been growing like crazy. People are ok with the things you listed, as long as it's at a good enough price.

And I'm genuinely curious what you mean about the contract. Their pay rates (outside of maybe the first year) are pretty darn good, well above what people would make at any of the wholly owneds, and their 401(K) DC is making it's way up to the same percentage as mainline. That's something you don't see at any regional. Maybe there's something else there I don't know about?

I've got friends there who genuinely like it, and I can't blame them. I know you normally just come in to try and sell Envoy to people who might be reading these forums to get an idea where to apply, but some of the stuff you said is so far off base, I'm kinda scratching my head.

So. Based on the source and content of this rant, I feel very confident and affirmed in my decision to apply with Spirit.

A perfect description of American Airlines.

Fixed it for you....

If companies maximize their short-term gain at employees’ expense, shouldn’t pilots maximize their economic situation?

Personally I discount the value of anything promised me that is more than a decade or more away at near -0-...unless it’s a pension ... oh wait....!
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