If we have 2600 pilots, we don't flow 20 a month. The math is meant to balance out somewhat when the pilot group grows to keep the worst-case flow time roughly the same. We're projected to have enough pilots to flow 21 a month later this year. We need 2480 for that, and we have a net gain of 7-8 pilots a month.

The list has a bug. Look at 2363. It jumps by a year.

OK, so if we take that number of 2450, for rounding, subtract the 200 lifers, that leaves us with 2250. This would then work out to 2250/21=107/12=8.92 or for rounding, 9 years. So not that far off and this assumes we can maintain 21 flows per month for the entire 9 years. The flow number may go up, but it could also go down.

Listen, I am not here to bash the flow, I am planning on using it even though I have offers only because I am so close and dont want to commute the rest of my career. With that said, the point that was being made all along was that the flow for a new hire has lost its shine somewhat. If I was starting today looking at potentially a 9 year flow or even at best, a 6.5 year flow, I would be giving serious consideration to other carriers with better pay/qol/contract.

I will also add that Envoy is significantly better now than it was in years past, but, history has a way or repeating itself and all it will take is a downturn or severe understaffing and management can return to their old ways. We need to tread carefully and listen to those that have been through this process else suffer the same fate.

I hope, hope, hope that the new union leadership put a high priority on flow times increasing. This should be the number one factor for them as it will effect the greatest number of pilots positively, short of the roughly 8% that are lifers. The lifers are not worried about reserve rules, they just want more pay. Getting us all the hell out of here one or two years sooner is far and away more important/impactful for our careers than having a long call on reserve.

Anyway, rant over lol, just wanted to chime in on it.

The pay definitely needs to come up for captains, free ioe on 70% of the trips is exhausting.

Leaving spirit for envoy is idiotic.

It's like leaving Yale for community college because you might get a chance to transfer to Stanford.

Fixed it for ya. All I could do while reading this thread is guffaw at all the horrible advice given to the OP. YES, leave spirit for Envoy and walk right into American Airlines. Not that hard.

You are advocating that a current pilot at a major airline give up their seniority and come to Envoy? Even at best, which we all know won't happen, will be a six year career stagnation? Not only are you wrong on virtually everything you say, but you are not even very good at it.

You obviously have put your desire to be a troll above any care for pilots, as you are now outwardly giving advice that is harmful.

To the person asking about coming here from Spirit, you would be making a horrible mistake. Stay where you are, enjoy the company and pay, try to get on with AA OTS if you must. They are hiring more OTS than through the flow anyway and that trend is set to continue.

Ignore THKooj, they are simply a shill, troll, management or all of the above and despite what they say, they are not at AA.

It’s exhausting, but it’s part of the job description. Now, being a senior FO giving free IOE to a DEC on the other hand...

I thought your KoolAid tap had been shut for too long. But your lies continue.

You must ask has ANYONE left Frontier, Spirit or Allegiant for Envoy???

This is one thing you certainly don’t want to be the first AND last to do.

Mandatory retirements at mainline really don’t matter because they aren’t what affects flow.

The purpose of the flow is to staff the REGIONALS. Anyone who believes different is delusional. AA mainline can meet it’s entire hiring needs with military hires and OTS hires from other regionals and the 135 and ACMI world. They don’t NEED flow to get qualified guys in the door.

AA will throttle the flow to whatever extent is necessary to keep the regional staffed. If you want to increase throughput to AA you need to increase recruiting and training and even retention at the wholly owneds themselves.

Lots of quality people coming in at the bottom and good retention of those people gets more coming out at the top. That’s the only thing that will really shorten flow. That requires better pay. And that will require a commitment from AA which historically they have been reluctant to do because it defeats the whole purpose of using the carrot of flow to reduce costs for their regional feed.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/skywes...ican-airlines/

By the time he does flow. Someone with his seniority will be at least 50% in a company, that will have at least 300+ airplanes and a new contract. For a new hire at Spirit to leave for the legacies is one thing, but to downgrade themselves to a regional. That might be one of the worst things they can do. I wouldn’t consider waiting 5-10 years as “walking” into AA. I fly with many new pilots who said they don’t have their apps updated and have no desire to go to the legacies (which our attrition numbers backs that up). However the OP is considering going to a regional. I’m not buying it. The only time anyone leaves a major for a regional is not by choice.

Correction - 2 DEC's are from Allegiant.

I could see this, as if you dont live in your base with them, commuting is hell due to all the day trips they operate. Some people just are not willing to move for it.

I also could see that as well. Allegiant is definitely a niche airline and that includes employment. They really don’t even hire a lot of people that don’t fit their basing model. But that still is a step down on the career ladder.

Yeah I agree.

I only commented because the numbers guys were using were wrong. The list had a bug, and the 2600/20 is wrong too.

My flow time is dropping quite nicely, as it will for everyone else during the first few years. But 6-7 years is still a very long time during this hiring wave. Do what you can to get out ASAP.

If you feel so strongly about the flow times, please contact your union reps. Based on some credible intel, it does not seem to be high on any wishlist. Almost the opposite. The only way your voice is heard in negotiations is through your reps. Use them.

Good. Company was the one advertising 5.5 year flow, I see no reason for the association to give anything up to make that reality.

I agree and that’s a good point.

Bumping an old thread, wondering if the new pay scales have brought in any ULCC FO’s? I’ve talked with a few guys who went to NK without PIC time and are considering going back to the voy for a quick upgrade and ~$150 an hour + bonuses. Sounds like a ~7 year flow would put you on the backside of the AA hiring wave though. Thoughts?

I feel like these friends have low self-esteem. Why complicate things? Just apply to mainline(s).

Why go to an AA WO when they can just go straight to AA now that they’re at the competition? AA DAL and UA are raiding the ULCCs.

This. Fastest way for a WO FO to get to AA is through Spirit.

This flow back to an aa wo seems backwards. The pay rate doesn’t justify it. As an ulcc fo your second year pay is that much higher than an aa w/o that’s it averages out to equal the same thing and then only goes up from there. Captain upgrades at an ulcc aren’t 10 yrs out. At most it’s just a couple years and you’ll make more than the regionals. The pay schedule really only applies to first year fos that are currently rated higher than only spirit at this point since frontier increased their pay to match envoy. It only really makes sense for retaining fos who go on to become captain rather than taking a more than 50% payout to go to an ulcc. The yearly increase schedule is better at ulcc so just because you might make the jump and make more for one year you’ll quickly be out paced by more seniority at an ulcc

I’m not saying it is worth it. See my post above, but your understanding of the pay at WOs isn’t quite complete. If you get hired at a WO with more than 750 hours of 121 flight time, you will be paid at the captain rate, and they are giving “years of service” credit. So if you have 800 hours and two years 121, you will be paid as a 3rd year captain… as an FO. You will also likely be able to upgrade soon after getting 950 hours, so if the actual PIC time is what you’re after it is a relatively quick and reasonably well paying way to get it, although your QOL will suffer immensely.

What about the guys & gal FOs already at the AA WOs? Is it worth leaving to spirit & frontier at this point? With the pay the way it is, and the insane increase at 750 121 hours? Also keeping in mind that TPIC isn't quite king like it was just a year ago.

Is there much value in an airbus type rating?

Doesn’t the new scale cap put at year 3 for fo or captain? If I remember correctly that is and a 2nd year fo at spirit makes roughly $40 less. Assuming you can upgrade year 3 at spirit you’re now ahead of anything envoy can pay you. The people maybe questioning it are going to be first year new hire fos at spirit. If you’re coming up on a year and about to roll over to year 2 it doesn’t seem economical. You’ll gain $40 more an hour for a year, assuming the best case scenario that you get the captain pay. But then the following year you’ll give up $60/hr because you didn’t stay and upgrade with spirit. All this assuming you even have to stay for that long if your plan is ultimately to go to a legacy.

The whole point to the pay increase was to keep senior people. I’d say it’s worth it to stick around till you can get a major you prefer. Type is definitely more valuable than tpic but still not that important.

If you want to go to United or Delta stay at the WO, upgrade and gtfo. If you want to go to AA, leave the WO now.

At least from what an AA recruiter told a buddy, they want TPIC. He seemed to think it was thee most valuable item on his resume and the excuse the AA recruiter gave was that upgrades will be happening quickly and they want people with TPIC time ready to go.

Someone with tpic in a 175 does nothing when you’re going to a 737 or a320. Not sure what upgrading to ca requires but I’m willing to bet if anything would lead to quicker upgrade it would be time in type over tpic time at a regional. I could be very wrong. But by the time you get to a legacy you’re legally ca eligible. So the only thing hold back an upgrade would be company policy and seniority.

Legacy carriers have always (traditionally) looked for candidates with PIC experience. Acting as PIC gives you experience in decision making and airmanship. Having a clean record as a PIC demonstrates some level of success in mastering those skills (or an immense amount of dumb luck).

There are plenty of candidates now getting through with no PIC, but they are still by far the minority.