leaving a ULCC for flow?
 

Would it be wise to leave a ULCC like spirit for envoys direct captain? While the pay is great I realisticly would not be upgrading for a few years out and then I would be a reserve captain. Would it be better for me to leave now, get the PIC time, and if things dont work out atleast I have a flow in backpocket? Or am I talking crazy talk? Note I do not have the 1k turbine PIC time.

Flow is 10 years and climbing.

Curious, why would you leave the right seat of a ULCC flying an Airbus for left seat at a regional? I know PIC time is desired, but job security-wise that seems counter productive.

Ship has sailed on flow. If you flow after coming here now (big if because anything can change on this kind of timeline), it’ll be after AA has refreshed the seniority list with a huge hiring spree and you’ll be junior forever.

Just looking at the numbers for retirements the next few years at delta/united/fed ex, kinda wish I had the PIC time before I came here. Sure I hear stories of FO's getting hired, but seems hit and miss. I thought the AA flow was 5-7 years?

If you're serious you should go to Piedmont. Their flow is the fastest according to all their recruitment stuff, and you can sit in the crew room in PHL for hours on end looking out over the Spirit aircraft on the E concourse talking to anyone who you can get to listen how you left Spirit to join them for the next half decade or two.

flow is of now value for anyone joining now

whats the reserve time for a direct captain? Would not be just for the flow, but also the PIC time.Would one be able to get 1k PIC time within 2 years? Has there be any issues with DEC's on probation?

You get hired as a FO then displaced to captain since the DEC program is a contract violation that our union won’t fight. You’ll be on reserve for a few years, Regardless of where you get based. So you won’t build much time over the 3 yrs you could’ve been making more money and getting close to be being a bus captain at a ULCC. Stay there, don’t take 2 steps back.

It would appear you have two options:

option A: Continue with Spirit. Although first year pay sucks the next two average $110 K a year with a 15% 401K DC. Then you upgrade and start logging PIC at 80 hours a month for $204 an hour and in 14 months have 1000 TPIC. Elapsed time - roughly 4 years.

option B: Take the DEC job. Get the DEC bonus, go through training for the same or different type, then go through upgrade training, and then go on Reserve, taking the dregs if the schedule as every FO who has the hours and cojones jumps over you in seniority while you make first, second, and then third year captain pay. Because counting going through training again, you’ll be three years getting to 1000 TPIC.

BOTH OPTIONS WILL GET YOU 1000 TPIC. My hunch is that 1000 TPIC of A320 time is going to be more valued by the other majors than 1000 of RJ time, but that’s only a hunch. The DEC option gets you the hours a year quicker but you make less money doing it. I doubt you are going to flow as quickly as you would get hired off the street in four years in any event, since flow generally goes in seniority order and though you make captain immediately, every FO on board when you get there is senior to you.

pick the option of your choice. It’s your career.

that’s a lie.

Leaving spirit for envoy would be the worst decision you could ever make.

Thanks guys..I think I will stay put where I'm at! i was just considering flow as AA rarely hires OTS unless you're military it seems. Nothing is ever a gaurantee as I know some good folks who did not get hired at delta/united. All I know is if im still at spirit in 7 years I may regret this if I could of been at american airlines!

How about you take my FO spot at eaglevoy and I’ll take your Airbus spot at Spirit? I’m close to upgrading. Sounds like a fair trade!

Naw, getting involved in a land war in Asia would be worse.


marginally worse...

:rolleyes:

Where in Asia?
Need more details to decide.

There is no DEC program at the moment.
No standing vacancy = no DECs. After the latest bid, there are a few "DEC" guys who got paid the big bucks but can't hold CA because they were too junior.

I’m at envoy and aggressively trying to go to spirit. I like Envoy but you don’t leave spirit for any regional.


ever.

This is the best answer ever.

Troll much?

2600-200 = 2400.

​​​​​​2400/20 = 120 months = 10 years.
​​​

Strong rumor has it, that all the WO captains will be making 2nd year AA FO pay with 16% direct contributions; with that being said I think it will be a marvelous idea for you to come and join us at Envoy. QOL I admit is absolutely horrible but I think, that will change as we now have a very strong Union, even more craftier then before. I personally turned 2 CJO's with really profitable ACMI's, because in the long run we all dream about being in a Legacy like AA.

Nice trolling

oh god. Just when I thought we were done with ThKooj.

2600? Come on. At least have your numbers right.

thanks for proving my point. Your math is dishonest and you know it.

​​​​​​
Current number is 2411, by the time this person is hired and goes to training there will be roughly 2600.

2400-200 = 2200/20 = 110 months or 9 years 2.5 months. Point is that it is pointless to come here for the flow alone.

Again, your math is wrong. Dude, you need to do your homework about the flow.
You're saying if we have 3000 pilots it takes 2800/20=140 months to flow?

Alpa just put out a list with estimated flow times. Most junior guy 2411 is about 9.9 years away.

That math assumes everyone stays, though.

It’s not 10 years. It’s not 5 years either.

No he isn't. Math is wrong there.

Well who cares? It’s not the advertised flow that recruiting likes to throw out there and it certainly could be 10 years. We have no idea but the point being made is that it is long enough away that you can’t just bank on it being there. Anything could happen in the next 7-10 years.

Truth is somewhere in the middle. Whoever sits still and waits for it is a fool.

so you already went from 10 to 9..... you’re still leaving out outside attrition... look man, we get it. You have an agenda. But if you can’t be honest about your numbers how can you expect anyone to have a discussion?

will you go on record and declare that envoy will experience outside attrition of exactly zero pilots over the next 10 years?

It's not just outside attrition, it's that he doesn't understand the math.
2400/20 is useless math, because that's not how it works.

I don’t care, especially. The only reason I am involved in this conversation is to call out FUPM’s wrong info.

either way, if a new hires intention is to stay for the flow, they are (generally) doing this career wrong. I get that it is some people’s only option and that’s fine. I’m certainly trying to avoid having to rely on flow. the benefit of the flow was not the discussion.

The math is fine. Divide the number of flowing pilots by the number of pilots flowing each month and you have the number of months the last pilot should wait to flow.

Some pilots will leave (resign for greener pastures hopefully) instead of flowing, meaning the number you get here is a bad-case scenario where no one senior to you gets out. However, it is not a worst case scenario. There are lots of worse ones. Here are some plausible scenarios that are worse: AA stops doing classes for awhile. Envoy has to meter the flow to staff the airline - in a situation where attrition is pulling your flow time down significantly, this is very likely in my opinion. Maybe you raise the ire of management somehow and they withhold your flow as an example to the other peasants. A reorganization occurs at Envoy or AA that reduces or eliminates the flow. You can go on forever thinking of these.

I've noticed that a lot of voices here basically just post "actually, that's wrong" or "you left out some important details" to attack others' credibility and never share the "correct math" or the "important details." It makes no difference to me, but the real answer is that no one really knows. Projections have been made based on certain assumptions, and the closer you are to flowing, the more likely reality is to match the projection. That's it. Everything else is a spin job.

Math is fine. I haven't seen the correct math here.

The 2400/20 is not correct.
Neither is the 9.9 years because the list has a bug.
Using those as your source is just wrong. Correcting those obvious errors is not a "spin job".

Alright, drop a time to flow for the most jr pilot on property and correct it. Anyone can say a projection is inaccurate, and really you aren't saying anything. We know it's inaccurate. That's why it's a projection. You don't seem to have comprehended my post at all.

So show us the correct math and flow times please.