What’s the point of FLOW?
 

For many years I wondered whats the point of the flow? Some pilots say “Plan B”, some say only hope to majors (skeletons?), some say only gateway to AA.

However, prior to covid, envoy flow was about to be severely throttled to 15, thus increasing dramatically off the street new hires, making outside regional hiring greater...moreover looking at skywest pilot averages, he or she only spent 3-4 years on property. Much shorter than the made up 5.5 years that will never occur. Last flowed was eagle hire at 8 years. Since no one at envoy has flowed, whats the point? Additionally, some have concluded that other airlines like dal or ual are reluctant to hire envoyers do to thinking of their AA fandom. Thus, little outside attrition exists compared to other regionals.

Wouldn’t the regional prison sentence be shorter without the flow? Just look at other regionals averages!

The point is to keep AA regionals manned, even better if AAG gets a discount in the process. Looks pretty successful to me.

Guaranteed movement of 20-30 from the top to keep the seniority list moving without having to grow. The music has stopped everywhere, but based on how many Envoy guys are getting hired at Fedex (and how many had class dates at DL that got cancelled due to covid), I don't buy the "airline XXX does not like Envoy pilots" argument.

Thus, as the flow per month becomes more and more throttled, there is no incentive to select envoyers for the pool at aa. They would hire from other regionals hurting other majors. AA would hurt themselves at the regional level, Envoy pilots would be the unwanted from every angle

Yeah and there seems to be a subset at the AAG wholly-owned carriers that are happy to wait for it, other opportunities be damned. It's honestly a great deal for AAG. We'll see how all that debt works out but there are some things they have down to a science at American.

Yes it has stopped. But the month to month union comm showed barely if any outside attrition. Less than 10 a month. Always single digits. Also look at the interactive Seniority list. Barely any would be picked up all year at aa outside flow. The “movement” total per month is smaller than the competition at Skywest for example.

The flow has always been a bill of goods sold to keep ENVOY, and subsequently PSA and PDT filled. It has never been about AA.

But please, you’ve just given the THKoolAid a reason to poke his head out.

They know some are too lazy to fill out an app.

False advertising = science

2018 only 8 envoyers got hired outside of flow only a few more than that in 2019. Those are very small numbers.

This will likely change. We had a huge chunk of hires who were on the 4-5 year flow train, and didnt even have apps out nor were they even competitive elsewhere until very recently. And the 8 year guys who were within a year of flowing. Envoy has a pretty unique seniority curve because of the Eagle shrinkage back in the bankruptcy years. You can't compare us to other regionals that are still around and try to compare how many pilots are leaving.

The REAL flow was put in place by the New American because they were smart enough to understand that pilots wants a viable career path with only one interview. Yes, there was a "flow" before at the old Eagle but it didn't put substantial numbers through to AA. The 824 came through only as a remedy.

With that comes the need to hire American Airlines pilots and they controlled that. Thus the high barriers to entry. Being an American pilot on day one of indoc at Envoy is not an easy path to navigate. Those that get through were thoroughly vetted and as I've mentioned many times here before, the criteria was put out and the Envoy recruitment team had to go to work. AAG/Envoy was the initiator of the Pipeline program which was the most innovative thing put into place by any major carrier in the past 20 years. It has kept Envoy supplied with raw talent that had been thoroughly vetted. The ideal Envoy in the future will be 100% pipeline pilots and no more of these lifers who hang around for years and years. The flow thru program was working and hitting on all cylinders. You can't predict things like pandemics and so the flow is TEMPORARILY on hold. American's plan on the other side of Covid19 is one of the most aggressive and well thought out anywhere in the industry.

The "real" flow had nothing to do with what pilots wanted, except as bait :rolleyes:

Wrong, that flow train has only temporarily pulled into the station. The engine is still running and it's ready to get back out on the tracks ASAP. Just because you are with the "union" now doesn't mean you know everything or have access to all the data.

I think you're going to see a lot of people bail on this place when Frontier and Spirit begin to hire. Waiting for a magical flow just burned a lot of pilots who aren't going to wait for this ship to sink when it hits the next iceberg.

The “flow train” is living off the reputation it built from 2009 until 2013ish.
one half of every AA new hire class had to come from Envoy. Those few years they actually sent over 60% of AA new hires from Envoy. After that they started throttling it to 30 then 25 a month, with no make-up requirement for 50%.
when it restarts it will shortly drop even lower per month.

Even if they stay at 20 a month, it’s 10 years to get through 2500 guys.
Even if attrition bumps it up to 30 leaving a month, it’s a 7 long year flow.

stop lying about how great flow is. Places like Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Jetblue, the legacies, Fedex/UPS, Kalitta, Omni & ATI will all be hiring, and the average 2 year regional guy will be competitive when this all restarts. Be years into a real seniority list making real money puts them into the left seat years ahead of waiting to flow to AA. If they live near an LCC base they’d be foolish not to go. Even if they do want Delta or United... who’s getting hired first. An LCC Guy flying A320’s or the regional guy?

get out of the regionals at your first chance. Unless AA is you’re one and only destination choice.

The point of FLOW is to dangle a carrot that doesn't exist in front of young impressionable college students by showing them a half baked slideshow depicting a shiny new 175 next to a 787 and giving them a lanyard that says AA on it. Don't worry, the abuse you suffer on the clapped out 145 that you'll actually end up flying combined with a crap contract and crap work rules will only be temporary as you'll soon be captaining a wide body jet across the pond. Sprinkle in a few bozo social media influencers with feel good music showing how awesome it is to fly your bucket of bolts 5 times a day back and forth to Charleston WV to your min rest overnight and management has all they need. Hook line and sinker. Don't worry though, the recruiter told you 5.5 years and you'll be at mainline and they certainly were not lying!

Now as for why anyone would drink that thick pitcher of kool aid and snake oil..not sure. You'd have to ask somebody who actually fell for it.

You're twisting the facts. Nobody and I mean NOBODY could have predicted this pandemic that has affected every. single. carrier. The flow is on pause until traffic returns which should be in the 1st to 2nd quarter timeframe with the rollout of the vaccine. Once that first pilot flows, then a brand new hire would be able to calculate his or her 5.5 year flow from that date. Anyone there before would subtract the time at Envoy until Covid and then restart the clock once hiring begins to also get the 5.5 year flow. I'm telling you AA is innovative. So, tell me why United and Delta don't have flows?

Seriously? Who are you trying to kid? Let’s assume that AA actually makes it without bankruptcy, despite a huge corporate debt and their last bond sale requiring a 12% yield to get takers. IF the second PSP comes through, that MIGHT happen. But as their existing bonds come due they are going to have to refinance that debt, refinance at 10-12% debt that was originally at 2.5-3%, and with the used aircraft market for airliners tanking worldwide the aircraft used as equity are now much reduced in value, which will insure those rates will be higher. In the meantime, the AA fleet has been cut back by a lot of aircraft. The entire (20) E-190 fleet, the entire 767 and 757 fleet, and all 24 of the A330s. That causes a huge reduction in their need for pilots. So IF they survive, AFTER they’ve gotten enough new aircraft to bring in all the pilots they already have on furlough, IF business picks up and IF they can manage to service their debt load, THEN AND ONLY THEN can they actually buy the aircraft they have on order that they have now deferred, and then and only then will flow recommence, allowing the pilots of the three wholly owneds to compete for slots against OTS hires and about 2000 retiring and separating military pilots.

Rickair7777 is right. The flow isn’t QUITE a scam, but it’s sort of a desperate last chance to back into a major by people with no chance of getting in any other way.

You are so full of it. Say the flow hadn't stopped. It is a ratio-based flow after the L10-11 group is gone and all depends on how many pilots are on property and how many AA hires. Per Letter 18-01, the Voy gets 5 flows for the top 480 pilots, and then one flow per 125 pilots thereafter.

Say there are 2300 pilots on property, 2300 pilots - 480 top pilots =1820 remaining / 125 = 14.56 + 5 = 20 flows per month.

We know that the top 200 won't flow, so there are 2100 pilots who would flow if they waited.

2100 pilots / 20 flows per month = 105 months from hire to flow.

Now we all know that not everyone will wait out the flow, so you can take a year off if you want. That leaves you with 7.75 years from indoc to freedom.

DELTA and United don't have flow agreements because they read your posts and want to avoid having people like you slip through the cracks and fly their planes.

I noticed you totally ignored my post on a different thread pointing out that your logic holds no water. In 2016/17/18 envoy literally hired anyone with a pulse. Puts your “highly vetted” argument out the window.

Flow is simply to keep pilots in their regionals, nothing more.

you also fail to mention the flow is throttled back and will continue to do so, especially as the pilot group size shrinks.

Also, you were hired yourself in your so called “unvettes and unwashed” era. So what does that make you? Someone who doesn’t even work for AA anymore technically.

Annddd, just as predicted, cue THKoolAid’s lies and false prophecies.

This thread is spicy, and I’m here for it.


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hush, donkey

ENVOY HIRING GUIDE FLOWCHART

How many Seminoles did applicant damage while enrolled in zero-to-hero program at ATP?
- If didn't attend ATP, STOP. Offer CJO now before applicant accepts an offer somewhere else.
- If more than two, STOP. Move application to bottom of pile. Rescreen in two weeks.
- If two or less, continue.

Can applicant taxi on grass?
- If yes, STOP. Offer CJO.
- If probably, proceed to interview.
- NOTE: Envoy offers no other acceptable answer to this question.

Ouch. Not wrong... but ouch.

almost sounds like that old “shrink to profitability” crap.....

How'd that work out last time?

flow is an insurance policy at best.... and now it’s a poor one at that.
Much better off to get a little 121 experience, network your butt off and get out sooner rather than waiting to flow.

I’m not sure where THBoob gets a 5.5 year flow. Mine was right there on paper.... 9 years.

while that assumes no outside attrition, I think THBoob will agree outside attrition at the AAvoy is virtually non-existent, due to everyone being full-fledged American Airlines Pilots!

Yep, I've talked to a ton of guys that are looking to jump ship out of the WO's.

Yeah, sure. Whatever. That's just some loser lifer lingo that all of the Envoy haters spew verbatim. There is not a "ton of guys" looking to bail and there never has been a "mass exodus" from Envoy, ever, like you guys talk about.

this is the point of the thread. Envoyers are ear marked. I believe if no flow existed...an envoy pilot would have a shorter prison sentence either through personal motivations or applications activeness.

​​​​​​...and this is the point of the flow.

Well it’s also very rare to not serve substantially more of a “prison sentence” when you show up on property at ANY regional with all your certificates through ATP and no degree. The big 3 don’t even look at individuals with no degree, I’ve never met anyone at mainline with no degree in hand. I’m not saying we don’t have them, but it has to be extremely rare.

I don’t have the statistics but the 3 WO’s seem to have a substantial amount of ATP pilots with no degree, that doesn’t help movement. Also when you believe you’ll end up at American, what’s the point of spending six figures to earn a bachelor’s?

seems like most of the regional industry

Does the flow (hiring at AA) only start after all 1600+ furloughed pilots are recalled?

The only guys at the big 3 without degrees are the ones who were hired back in the late 70s or worked at a smaller carrier and then were merged into AA/UA/DL

Yes. That s how it works. Which means no flow for a long time.

I doubt many people will actually leave given the climate right now. Pilots and jets are very similar. Both filled with hot air.

I can't speak for PSA or Piedmont, but most pilots at Envoy have a degree.

I would agree with "most" for sure. I have flown with quite a few that don't though. More than I would have expected until I understood 'flow'. But I've spent no time with another regional for comparison.

If (big if) any of the LCCs start hiring this coming year, esp if you're a florida commuter, it makes sense. I won't rule it out.

In regards to the degree thing, most guys i've flown with have it. I'm in the minority on that but i'll have it done within 6 months, so whatever.