Timing matters. When was it "6 years"? The list would show the more recent history of who got on the list and when the actually flowed. I'd be very leery of any projections beyond a couple of years as a previous poster stated "who knows what the hiring will look like in 2030." The only given is retirements even if the law changes to Age 67 or Age 70.

Well...AA hired ~8000 in the last 10 years. If they hire 1K-2K/yr for the next 5 years. They would have hired 13K-18K over an 15 year period. Some of them were old, the vast majority were not. While yes 5 years from now AA will still be retiring 500/yr for 10 more years after that, but that would really be offset by the "over hiring" that's happening right now, unless you believe at some point AA will be an 20K-25K pilot force airline. Or if they slow hiring at some point, but that would mean an 5 year flow will possibly go to 10 years or beyond.

If you actually flowed in 5 years, it'll be a very slow crawl up the list until 20 years after you flowed when the next retirement wave hits.

Or something else might happen that would change things entirely.

In my opinion 5-8 years from now it'll be another period of great stagnation. If they're still selling an 5 year flow at this point, it's pretty disingenuous. But what choice does one have? Flowing always should be plan B, better to have that card than not in your pocket.

Good luck.

At all 3 legacy airlines, there will be a point where the last captain for the next 15 years will be hired, but no one will know who that will be or when it will happen.

It will most likely happen at United first with all of their new hires (and old airplanes that will be parked as new airplanes are brought in). AA should be last because they have hired the fewest in the last 3 years with the most retirements in the next 10 years.

2000

filler

AA has cut that number back quite a bit for 2024. They havent released a new number, but said it would be much less. I guess we will see.

In the 12/29 podcast from Russ Moore, a member of the pilot recruiting team said "in 2023, we hired more than 2000 new pilots, and we're making perparations to welcome even more candidates in 2024".

interesting. They say the plan is to hire 2000 again in 2024. Where is your source from?