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How Envoy's 5.5 Year Flowthrough Works
Here are some conservative flowthrough numbers for pilots thinking about coming to Envoy and for all the pilots out there who say the flowthrough will not work.
Let’s start with some basics about Envoy and the flow. Envoy currently has 1950 pilots on the seniority list. The top 300 have already bypassed the flow many many times and will retire from Envoy. Let’s conservatively make it 250. That means a new-hire has 1700 pilots to get through before he/she flows. Envoy currently has 5-10 pilots leaving every month in addition to the flow, most of which are senior FOs and junior CAs. Obviously, the more senior you become at Envoy, the less of those 5-10 a month leaving help you move up. We will conservatively use 0 attrition to other airlines in our calculation. The pilots flowing to AA are currently flowing at a rate of 30 a month. Yes, AA recalls could slow that down for 2 or 3 months this year, but that is all. We will add that to the final calculation. Here is the flowthrough contract broken down. The 824 pilots are currently flowing at a rate of 50% of the new hire positions at AA. That can be metered down to 30, and it is. After the 824 pilots flow, it drops to a 35% flow rate. But that bumps back up to 50% when Envoy receives the 40th E-175. That happens to coincide at the time their 824th pilot flows. So, in essence, the flow rate stays at 50% but metered to 25 from the last of the 824 till the pilots hired after October 11, 2011. Then it drops to 35% until the DOS (Date of Signing) pilots. If American continues to hire only 60 a month, then 35% is 21 per month flowing to AA. Then we get to the DOS pilots. The pilots hired after December 2014 will flow at a rate of about 15 pilots per month. The most recent Envoy pilot awarded to flow has a seniority number of 415. The last pilot hired before October 11, 2011 has a seniority number of 1675. The difference between them is 1260 pilots. If you take a very conservative 25 a month for this entire group, it will take 4 years, 2 months to get to the last of the 10/11/2011 pilots. The last pilot hired in December 2014 (DOS) has a seniority of 1849. To get to that pilot, it will take another 8.2 months, using 21 per month. From the DOS pilot to the most recent new-hire is 101 pilots. At 15 a month, it will take 6.7 months. Add all these groups up and you get 5 years 5 months to flow for a new-hire hired today. As promised, add 2-3 months for the AA recalls and you are at 5 years 8 months. And that is without considering any attrition to other airlines which, like I stated before, is about 5-10 a month. Take that into consideration, and you will be well below a 5 year flow. These are just the straight numbers and facts on the conservative side. How’s that for “lies” and a “used car salesman” pitch. Obviously we could have a terrorist attack or a major economic collapse or the retirement age could be changed, but no airline pilot would be in a good situation if that happened. I would rather be at a WO airline that could weather the storm. For those of you who struggle with numbers and projections, you don’t use current reserve, upgrade, or flow to decide which airline you should go to. You need to look at what those times will be for you hired today. Envoy’s most junior reserve, upgrade, and flow are 22 months, 8 years, and 16.5 years respectively, but those pilots went through 9/11, age 65, 2008, and the AMR bankruptcy. |
According to the latest Alpa news...we are down to 1859 pilots. That's 100 less to flow.
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Know what sounds better...
Junior CA at Delta was November 2014 hire... Charlie could upgrade sooner at Delta than envoy...
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Originally Posted by GodIsGood
(Post 2090590)
Here are some conservative flowthrough numbers for pilots thinking about coming to Envoy and for all the pilots out there who say the flowthrough will not work.
Let’s start with some basics about Envoy and the flow. Envoy currently has 1950 pilots on the seniority list. The top 300 have already bypassed the flow many many times and will retire from Envoy. Let’s conservatively make it 250. That means a new-hire has 1700 pilots to get through before he/she flows. Envoy currently has 5-10 pilots leaving every month in addition to the flow, most of which are senior FOs and junior CAs. Obviously, the more senior you become at Envoy, the less of those 5-10 a month leaving help you move up. We will conservatively use 0 attrition to other airlines in our calculation. The pilots flowing to AA are currently flowing at a rate of 30 a month. Yes, AA recalls could slow that down for 2 or 3 months this year, but that is all. We will add that to the final calculation. Here is the flowthrough contract broken down. The 824 pilots are currently flowing at a rate of 50% of the new hire positions at AA. That can be metered down to 30, and it is. After the 824 pilots flow, it drops to a 35% flow rate. But that bumps back up to 50% when Envoy receives the 40th E-175. That happens to coincide at the time their 824th pilot flows. So, in essence, the flow rate stays at 50% but metered to 25 from the last of the 824 till the pilots hired after October 11, 2011. Then it drops to 35% until the DOS (Date of Signing) pilots. If American continues to hire only 60 a month, then 35% is 21 per month flowing to AA. Then we get to the DOS pilots. The pilots hired after December 2014 will flow at a rate of about 15 pilots per month. The most recent Envoy pilot awarded to flow has a seniority number of 415. The last pilot hired before October 11, 2011 has a seniority number of 1675. The difference between them is 1260 pilots. If you take a very conservative 25 a month for this entire group, it will take 4 years, 2 months to get to the last of the 10/11/2011 pilots. The last pilot hired in December 2014 (DOS) has a seniority of 1849. To get to that pilot, it will take another 8.2 months, using 21 per month. From the DOS pilot to the most recent new-hire is 101 pilots. At 15 a month, it will take 6.7 months. Add all these groups up and you get 5 years 5 months to flow for a new-hire hired today. As promised, add 2-3 months for the AA recalls and you are at 5 years 8 months. And that is without considering any attrition to other airlines which, like I stated before, is about 5-10 a month. Take that into consideration, and you will be well below a 5 year flow. These are just the straight numbers and facts on the conservative side. How’s that for “lies” and a “used car salesman” pitch. Obviously we could have a terrorist attack or a major economic collapse or the retirement age could be changed, but no airline pilot would be in a good situation if that happened. I would rather be at a WO airline that could weather the storm. For those of you who struggle with numbers and projections, you don’t use current reserve, upgrade, or flow to decide which airline you should go to. You need to look at what those times will be for you hired today. Envoy’s most junior reserve, upgrade, and flow are 22 months, 8 years, and 16.5 years respectively, but those pilots went through 9/11, age 65, 2008, and the AMR bankruptcy. |
Originally Posted by GodIsGood
(Post 2090590)
Here are some conservative flowthrough numbers for pilots thinking about coming to Envoy and for all the pilots out there who say the flowthrough will not work.
Let’s start with some basics about Envoy and the flow. Envoy currently has 1950 pilots on the seniority list. The top 300 have already bypassed the flow many many times and will retire from Envoy. Let’s conservatively make it 250. That means a new-hire has 1700 pilots to get through before he/she flows. Envoy currently has 5-10 pilots leaving every month in addition to the flow, most of which are senior FOs and junior CAs. Obviously, the more senior you become at Envoy, the less of those 5-10 a month leaving help you move up. We will conservatively use 0 attrition to other airlines in our calculation. The pilots flowing to AA are currently flowing at a rate of 30 a month. Yes, AA recalls could slow that down for 2 or 3 months this year, but that is all. We will add that to the final calculation. Here is the flowthrough contract broken down. The 824 pilots are currently flowing at a rate of 50% of the new hire positions at AA. That can be metered down to 30, and it is. After the 824 pilots flow, it drops to a 35% flow rate. But that bumps back up to 50% when Envoy receives the 40th E-175. That happens to coincide at the time their 824th pilot flows. So, in essence, the flow rate stays at 50% but metered to 25 from the last of the 824 till the pilots hired after October 11, 2011. Then it drops to 35% until the DOS (Date of Signing) pilots. If American continues to hire only 60 a month, then 35% is 21 per month flowing to AA. Then we get to the DOS pilots. The pilots hired after December 2014 will flow at a rate of about 15 pilots per month. The most recent Envoy pilot awarded to flow has a seniority number of 415. The last pilot hired before October 11, 2011 has a seniority number of 1675. The difference between them is 1260 pilots. If you take a very conservative 25 a month for this entire group, it will take 4 years, 2 months to get to the last of the 10/11/2011 pilots. The last pilot hired in December 2014 (DOS) has a seniority of 1849. To get to that pilot, it will take another 8.2 months, using 21 per month. From the DOS pilot to the most recent new-hire is 101 pilots. At 15 a month, it will take 6.7 months. Add all these groups up and you get 5 years 5 months to flow for a new-hire hired today. As promised, add 2-3 months for the AA recalls and you are at 5 years 8 months. And that is without considering any attrition to other airlines which, like I stated before, is about 5-10 a month. Take that into consideration, and you will be well below a 5 year flow. These are just the straight numbers and facts on the conservative side. How’s that for “lies” and a “used car salesman” pitch. Obviously we could have a terrorist attack or a major economic collapse or the retirement age could be changed, but no airline pilot would be in a good situation if that happened. I would rather be at a WO airline that could weather the storm. For those of you who struggle with numbers and projections, you don’t use current reserve, upgrade, or flow to decide which airline you should go to. You need to look at what those times will be for you hired today. Envoy’s most junior reserve, upgrade, and flow are 22 months, 8 years, and 16.5 years respectively, but those pilots went through 9/11, age 65, 2008, and the AMR bankruptcy. |
Originally Posted by LeadFoot
(Post 2090610)
That was pretty helpful in explaining how the flow works. Even with very conservative numbers, it looks pretty good.
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There is more to it than that, but in a perfect world, that would be how it works. If Envoy (and the other WOs) can't hire new pilots, then I have to wonder what AAG will do about the flows. I have a hard time believing they will flow themselves into non-existence. So at some point, things are going to have to improve pay/contract wise in order to be truly attractive to new hires.
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Will all know Pedro-Ric follows envoys contract to the T. So anything past the 824 will flow smoothly......
Besides, they already said they will park planes to honor the flow, so nothing to worry there. Good Luck! |
Originally Posted by chrisreedrules
(Post 2090630)
So at some point, things are going to have to improve pay/contract wise in order to be truly attractive to new hires.
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Envoy and Piedmont's flows are about the same for anyone hired today. I believe the 6 year or less flow number at Envoy for new hires and Piedmont's is the same.
Even if PSA switched to 10% of the pilot group flowing annually today, it will still take much longer for a PSA new hires to flow to American. The reason being, PSA only has 50 lifers. The number of lifers is less important and rather the percentage of lifers is. A flow might be 10% of the pilot group annually. But if 15% of the group are lifers, the flow is actually higher than 10% because it's based on the number pilots participating. Piedmont and Envoy both have at least 15% lifers and that improves everyone's flow time with their current 10% flow for new hires. PSA has 5% lifers and only a 4% flow. |
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